WE SAW EXPECTED DOWNSIDE FOLLOW-THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT VOLUME DECLINED AND TODAY IS A POTENTIAL ‘TURNAROUND TUESDAY’. CAUTION FLAGS ARE STILL RAISED THAT A MORE SERIOUS SETBACK COULD BE UNFOLDING. AFTERALL, THE LAST TIME I LOOKED AT THE CALENDAR IT WAS STILL SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER LOOMS AROUND THE CORNER. BUT, BEARS HAVE TO BE WATCHFUL THAT THE WHITE KNIGHT (BERNANKE) WILL COME TO THE BULLS RESCUE. THE BIG ISSUE IS WITH THE BANKS – THE REASON I BELIEVE TAPERING WAS NOT INSTITUTED LAST WEEK, I.E., THE BANKS ARE IN TROUBLE AND THE FACT THE FED HAS LOST CONTROL OF LONG INTEREST RATES. DON’T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TAPERING INCREASE FROM $85 BILLION TO $100 BILLION OR MORE TO KEEP EQUITY MARKETS FROM DECLINING AND TO KEEP LONG BOND PRICES FROM DECLINING FURTHER.

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The S&P 500 was down 8.07 at 1701.84 touching 1697.10 intraday. It traded at a new bull market high of 1729.86 on Thursday. Risk is down to the 50 day moving average at 1678.00. A bigger sell-off would find support at 1627, 1610 and then 1550. When and if we clear 1729.86, look for 1757.00 and even possibly 1807.00.

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The TSX was down 120.31 at 12806.47. Resistance is at the 12889.26 peak from back on May 22. Above there we could theoretically see 13370.00. Should we break below 11759.04 (the June 24 low) look for 11,400. 
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The TSX Venture was down 6.78 at 946.10. Next resistance is 971.96 then 1017.59. A double-bottom formed comparing the 859.31 low from June 27 to the July 9 low of 873.05. Under those lows, look for support at 830.00 and 780.00 on the way down

METALS – AS I WARNED, LAST WEDNESDAY’S BIG UPSIDE ‘KEY REVERSAL’ COULD HAVE BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN JUST ANOTHER ‘DEAD CAT’ BOUNCE. IF, HOWEVER, IF WE CAN CLEAR THURSDAY’S HIGHS, E.G., 1374.77, WE COULD BE ‘COOKING WITH GAS’. WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THE SAME APPLIES FOR THE MINING SHARES. THE NEXT BIG UPSIDE BARRIER ARE THE AUGUST 27 HIGHS. IF, HOWEVER, WE BREAK UNDER WEDNESDAY’S LOWS, E.G., 1295 IN SPOT GOLD, WATCH OUT BELOW, WE COULD BE HEADED TO 1000 -NOT THE DESIRE RESULT, UNLESS, OF COURSE, YOU ARE SHORT. AT THE MOMENT, THAT APPEARS TO BE THE MORE VIABLE STRATEGY. FOR THE MIINERS, WATHC THE PHLX XAU INDEX UNDER 88.29 OR 82.28.

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Spot Gold was down 1.76 at 1319.27. Gold touched 1295.15 intraday last Wednesday forming a ‘key reversal’ day to the upside, but ran into a stone wall at Thursday’s high of 1374.77. The recent high is 1432.38 from August 28. To date, the big, big low (as compared to the record high of 1922 from September, 2011) was formed on June 28 at 1186.40. 
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Spot Silver was up .17 at 21.69. Last Wednesday’s low at 21.23 is still being tested with 20.61 and 18.31 next support. Downside risk is to 13.00 if these levels are violated. We need to clear 23.90 and 25.07 to begin talking about the resumption of the uptrend.

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Mark Leibovit is Chief Market Strategist and Publisher for the VRTrader.com -“Tools for the High Performance Trader”,  the Leibovit VR Gold Letter and the author of ‘The Trader’s Book of Volume’ which was published in 2011 by McGraw-Hill. You may have recognized Mark as one of the ten “Elves” on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week television program where he served as a weekly consultant for 7 years and also as a regular Market Monitor guest for the past 30 years on PBS’ The Nightly Business Report. He is a popular speaker at investment conferences both in the U.S. and Canada and is often seen on PBS, BNN and FOX Business News. TIMER DIGEST Magazine has named him the #1 Gold Timer for the twelve-month period from 8/26/10 to 8/26/11 and the #2 for 2011 He was also named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007. Mr. Leibovit was a member of the Chicago Board Options Exchange where he became a market maker in several stocks including Newmont Mining. Through the late 1980s he was Technical Research Director for Rodman & Renshaw and subsequently began publishing several financial newsletters. He holds a CIMA and AIF designation and is a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and the CFA Institute.

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What is a Leibovit Volume Reversal (VR)?
A Leibovit Volume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day accompanied by an increase in volume. 
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Last week’s intense market action created a great limited risk trading opportunity…and may also have created an important Key Turn Date as markets surged on Wednesday but reversed hard Thursday/Friday. If gold and stocks take out last week’s lows we could see heavy selling.

….read more & view charts HERE

Dow New High, Forget QE Tapering Expect Expansion!

The Dow Jones stocks index closed at another all time high of 15,676, catching many if not most so called market analysts off guard as for the duration of the stock markets latest correction could be found to be singing the new secular or cyclical bear market has begun mantra, despite the fact that many of whom have been singing the same tune for the duration of the 5 year plus of the stocks bull market.

…..view 6 more chart and the commentary HERE 

The FED Blinked. It’s been my expectations that if “tapering” actually began, it wouldn’t be long before the FED would be pressured to go back to QE mode as the economy starts to accelerate to the downside. Well they blinked and now have begun the process that should lead to a perception of going from in front of the curve to behind.

The gentleman noted in this Zerohedge article truly hit the nail on the head (and Lies-man of TOUT-TV remains one of  chief mates on the ships of fools that litter that network).

Gold meanwhile had a key reversal and while I would like to wave an “all-clear” flag I know the manipulators who were applying their trade just a couple of weeks ago won’t just simply go away. Interesting days ahead for the yellow metal.

Where have all the U.S. dollar bulls gone? We’re close to key support and while I don’t anticipate breaking below on the first couple of tests, the bears are sniffing some bull meat upcoming.

I said a few weeks ago that I felt the 3% yield on the 10-yr. T-Bond should be the high mark until the real crisis comes when the world finally concludes America no longer has real ability to pay its debts.

• Alderon Iron Ore
• Teranga Gold
• If it was me, I wouldn’t own and housing related equities.
• Currency war near?
• No more something for nothing forever.

And finally, shame, shame shame on all those who walked out the room 

“we will be increasing in volatility the last week of September”

….more comments and charts HERE

House Votes to Defund Obamacare – Again

However, Congress must pass a CR to set federal funding levels by Oct. 1, or the government will partially close. No doubt our computer has been targeting the last week of September and then the weeks of Oct 7th/14th look key. House Republicans see the mandatory deadline as a final opportunity to cripple the 3-year-old Obamacare law.

….read more HERE

It’s a Matter of Confidence

Stocks are not rising because of “confidence” in the Fed, the central banks have themselves been buying stocks lacking confidence in public debt. Money has NO CHOICE but to go to stocks. Pension will go bust and stocks are becoming the ALTERNATIVE to government debt.

Even during the Great Depression, corporate bonds were in higher demand than government. Read the newspaper of 1929 and you will see the complete opposite interpretation of the same fundamentals from today.

There is a cycle to fundamental interpretations as well.

….read more HERE