#1 ranked Trader by Timer’s Digest with a 31.6% return for 2017 is still looking for higher stock prices and has switched to bullish Gold in last evenings letter after going bearish the US Dollar on March 2nd. The chart below certainly indicates there is still a lot of fear on the part of investors, though less than in previous days. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

Todd Market Forecast for 3pm PST Tuesday March 6, 2018

DOW + 9 on 1040 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 41 on 818 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: When the market is up over 300 on a session, it would hardly be surprising to see profit taking the next day. The bears tried, but failed. We were impressed by the action, especially breadth. The advance decline line has been a solid performer.

The Russell 2000 made a new rally high today. It’s a good sign when smaller caps are outperforming. See the charge below.

There are almost zero signs of a top of any significance. Pullbacks should be bought.

GOLD: Gold was up $15. A sharply lower dollar helped. This changes our outlook below.

CHART: There are no guarantees in this business, but when the high techs are leading the charge, it suggest that there are higher prices ahead. Today the SOX or semiconductor index made an all time high (bottom arrow).

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO at 114.33. Stay with it on Wednesday. We’ve gotten almost all of our loss from last week back.

System 9 We are currently neutral.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Factory orders dropped 1.4%, slightly worse than the expected drop of 1.3%. On Wednesday we get the trade deficit, oil inventories, the ADP employment numbers and the Fed Beige Book.

INTERESTING STUFF: Every reform, however necessary, will by weak minds be carried to an excess, that itself will need reforming. ———–Samuel Taylor Coleridge

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was up 4.  

BONDS: Bonds were slightly lower.

THE REST: The dollar got whacked. Crude oil was lower.

Bonds –Bullish as of Feb. 28.

U.S. dollar – Bearish as of March 2.

Euro — Bullish as of March 2.

Gold —-Change to bullish as of March 6.

Silver—- Change to bullish as of March 6.

Crude oil —-Bullish as of March 2.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.   

    Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  

Gary Savage is a renowned trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil and currency markets. Today he has some long term projections for the years ahead. (Note: He sees 10,000 on the Nasdaq as a piece of cake!). For larger charts, click the square box lower right to expand the youtube – Robert Zurrer for Money Talks. 

This video details Gary’s longer term projections for numerous markets including the Nasdaq Index, Semiconductor Index, SPX 500, Commodities Index and Gold.

ttps://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

Stephen Todd made a significant amount of money in the huge January rally, got out before this February crash, then got back in on Monday February 12th and after a 747 Dow point rally in two days is up nearly 8% for February too. Ranked #1 in 2017 by Timer’s Digest with a 31.6% return in 2017 Steven gives his view on what he expects going forward in this letter – Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

For Monday Feb 26, 2018

Available Mon- Friday after 3:00 P.M. Pacific.

DOW + 399 on 948 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 84 on 888 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: A heads up. Tomorrow, new Fed head Jerome Powell is testifying before Congress and there is always the specter of market moving comments.

When the market is up 747 points in two days, there is usually a cliche to accompany it. How about this? “In a bull market, surprises come on the upside”.

There wasn’t much specific news to account for it. For some, the earnings picture continues to be a factor. And indeed, a record 78% of firms have beaten fourth quarter revenue estimates.

GOLD: Gold was up $5. Not a lot of specifics to account for it, but it wasn’t much of a move.

CHART: Five week RSI got very close to an oversold condition. Usually, when it gets this low, the rebound usually lasts much longer than the two weeks that this rebound has lasted. In my view, we are still owed more on the upside, but I wouldn’t be surprised by some near term profit taking.

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO from 107.03. Move your stop to 115.03.

System 9 We are currently neutral.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: New home sales came in at 593,000, less than the expected 640,000. On Tuesday we get durable goods, the trade deficit, the Case Shiller Home Price Index and consumer confidence  

INTERESTING STUFF: I heard an interesting comment today. A market watcher noted that the recent correction would have once taken six weeks, but now was over in a couple. He likened it to an overall speeding up of society. It once took days to get photos back. Now they’re posted faster than you can blink your eyes. I think that there is something to that. 

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto rose 76.

BONDS: Bonds fell back, but I believe that it’s trying to make a bottom.

THE REST: The dollar was quiet again. Crude oil continues to rally.

Bonds –Bearish as of Jan. 9.

U.S. dollar – Bullish as of Feb.20.

Euro — Bearish as of Feb. 20.

Gold —-Bearish as of Feb. 20.

Silver-— Bearish as of Feb. 20.

Crude oil —-Bullish as of Feb. 14.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  

Taking the position that the Stock Market is vunerable to rising bond interest rates Goldman issues a warning below. Martin Armstrong also has an opinion in this recent article Rising Interest Rates & The Coming Banking Crisis.  – Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 4.5 percent by year-end, the economy would probably muddle through — stocks, not so much, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Goldman’s base-case scenario calls for a 10-year yield of 3.25 percent by the end of 2018, though a “stress test” out to 4.5 percent indicates such a move would cause stocks to tumble, economist Daan Struyven wrote in a note Saturday. He also said the economy would probably suffer a sharp slowdown but not a recession.

“A rise in rates to 4.5 percent by year-end would cause a 20 percent to 25 percent decline in equity prices,” the note said.

While a recent drop in stocks may have been fueled by concerns tied to the 10-year yield approaching 3 percent, many strategists have said they felt equities could continue to rise until reaching 3.5 percent or 4 percent.

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Toronto March 1st @ Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel 7-9pm

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Victoria March 13th @ Coast Victoria Hotel & Marina by APA 7-9pm

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Vancouver March 15th @ UBC Robson Square 7-9pm

Tickets – $29.95

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