Stocks & Equities

Jack Crooks: It’s a lay-up: buy stocks!

“He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot, but don’t let that fool you — he really is an idiot.”

– Groucho Marx

John Ross asked me this morning if I could create a scenario whereby stocks fall.  I laughed and said, “Well … no!” And maybe that is the point. No doubt ‘if you are not long, you are wrong’ is playing out in spades. But we’ve seen that sentiment many times before near tops.  

The primary thematic shaping up seems the idea that bonds have topped and as this money leaves bonds it will power stocks higher—globally. The idea seems to make sense; but often it is never that easy.  Taking a look at the chart below, there doesn’t seem a heck of a lot of correlation to hang your hat upon, only to say the long-term trend higher in bonds (lower in yields) has been met by a corresponding big run in stocks.    

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Let’s consider some reasons why US stocks might NOT go a lot higher and, for grins, maybe even, dare I say it, “correct.”  

  1. A recovery in the US economy could mean finally financial assets will start competing for funds and the Bernanke Put, i.e. QE moral hazard liquidity juice, fades. Bonds would get hit here, but stocks might at least correct.
  2. Bernanke’s concern the job market is still not healed may play out because fiscal stimulus fades as the year progresses. Thus, we have well below trend growth and rising prices for energy and food leading to at least a mild case of stagflation; that isn’t good for either stocks or bonds.
  3. Germany decides to go “all in” and throws its full faith and credit behind a Eurobond for the Eurozone. Immediately, the risk profile improves in Europe. S&P and Moody’s decide it’s time to upgrade European paper and at the same time downgrade US paper given that Washington can make no real cuts amidst ideological squabbling. Lots of capital flows back to European bonds and stocks and out of the US; a possible triple-whammy out of US assets (stocks, bonds, and the dollar).
  4. China financial and social unrest ramp up and the Communist Party is at odds on stimulus given their concern about inflation; therefore it’s better to have security locally than worry about Western markets; the additional stimulus never arrives as growth and demand forecasts for China ratchet lower. Likely bad for stocks, but maybe good for bonds.
  5. Eurozone. ‘Nuff said!
  6. Rising emerging market capital controls a la Brazil (tacitly condoned by the IMF) are met with rising trade tariffs from developed countries.  Money flows out of risk assets (stocks), quickly from the periphery, and back into bonds as global trade falls.
  7. Republicans win the White House and Congress, fire Ben Bernanke, and make Ron Paul Fed Chairman. They cut the budget deficit twice as much as what Paul Ryan is lobbying for. Ultimately it would be the best thing that happened to the US financial position in a hundred years, but there would be hell to pay as US credit drains from the global economy (and we have to listen to the moochers whining and crying about “fairness” day in, and day out). US bonds rally big time, so does the US dollar; stocks would likely be hit very hard initially, then stage a gargantuan rally.  [I know; but a guy can dream.]

For now, “don’t fight the Fed” and “the trend is your friend” are winning the day. And if the bulls are right about US recovery, European healing, and new Chinese stimulus soon on the way, it could keep running. No doubt.  

Tags: China, Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, US Dollar, US Treasuries, BRICS, US Bonds, eurozone, commodities

Stealth Bottom Coming in Gold Stocks

mar26edsent

We hear calls of market manipulation and intervention and calls to abandon gold stocks and only own physical metal. We heard these calls in 2008-2009 and now we hear them again, which would only prove disastrous for those who heed such advice. The miners are not only extremely oversold but recent price action suggests a bottoming process is beginning.

The struggle of the mining stocks has surprised many including us. We thought record profits and a bullish environment would catapult the miners out of a consolidation and into a major breakout. The perception of an enduring recovery and the endurance and persistence of the wall of worry stage has left the gold stocks unloved and under-owned and for far longer than we expected. We do have to remember that the miners exploded in 2009 and 2010 and it is normal for a bull market to spend months in consolidation. As a result

Preserve Your Capital- Trade and Mental

I constantly jot down trading ideas….anticipating what may happen in a particular market, and why. Each trading idea has a time frame within which I expect it to play out and that time frame is very important in determining how or when to make the trade.

For instance, if my trade idea is to sell the AUD short because I think it’s run up too far on the “China growth” story, then the time frame implies that NOW may not be the best time to initiate a short position….the time frame on that trade idea is a month-to-month time frame and if the trade starts to work then the AUD could fall for months….NOW…this moment…may not be the best time to initiate the trade because the AUD could rally a few cents from present levels just on “noise” and yet still be within the parameters of that short AUD trade idea….meanwhile, I’ll be increasingly uncomfortable if I’m holding a losing short position!

Read the full article here.

human-capital

Doing What Wall Street Doesn’t

Last year, I was at a dinner with a bunch of fertilizer analysts from Wall Street and Toronto. To my right was a guy who was really getting on my nerves:

Annoying analyst: We have PotashCorp at overweight. We believe with the structural deficit in potash that —

Me (interrupting): I have a sell on it and dropped coverage.

Annoying analyst: You did what? What did you do that for? Is your firm making a strategic change in direction? You can’t cover fertilizers and drop PotashCorp! (chuckling incredulously.)

Me: I can. I don’t have to cover anything. I cover what I like. When the Street hates the stock, I’ll put it back at buy.

I think the other analysts thought I had six heads. But I do remember one analyst made a point of coming around to me afterward and asking for my card.

Most of the time I just go with the flow. I am an easygoing fellow. But every now and then I like to tweak these clowns. I remember I was at a conference in which about a dozen companies presented. After one company’s presentation, I got tired of hearing all the softball questions and the overly promotional CEO fielding them. Listening to him, you’d think his company were the greatest thing since sliced bread, instead of a flimsy money loser.

So I got in the queue to ask a question. Finally, I got the chance to ask the obvious:

Me: This may seem like a simple question, but I hope to get a serious response… Why doesn’t your company make any money?

CEO: Excellent question!

But sometimes the Street is overly pessimistic. I remember being at a conference in February 2009. There were about 16 companies presenting. The mood was glum. One CEO stood up and said, “It feels like a funeral.” It did. The world was ending. In six weeks, we’d all be eating dog food and howling at the moon. So everyone seemed to think.

At lunch, at about the midway point, I was just trying to make conversation with the analyst next to me:

Me: So you have any favorites you like so far?

Analyst: How about none of them.

I’ll always remember that. Here were some great little industrial companies selling cheaply. And no one was excited. I left that conference determined to recommendFlowserve (NYSE:FLS), which has done very well since. I met the CEO after his presentation, standing alone in the hallway drinking his ice water. I was the only one who came up to him.

A year later, I went to the same conference. The stock had doubled. But the room was full and the CEO wasn’t alone standing in the hallway after giving his talk.

Sometimes I have to hurdle some skepticism from people who are not sure what I’m up to. I remember I called up one CFO of a small company. I told him who I was and what I did and that I was thinking of recommending his stock, but I had some questions first. I remember he said, “Well… How much is this going to cost me?”

Ha! Obviously, he had been approached by others before who wanted some kind of compensation for writing favorably about his stock. The idea that I was truly independent, beholden only to my subscribers, was refreshing and unusual to him.

Anyway, enough of my reminiscences. It is good to rub elbows with the Street now and then. Sometimes you do get some good nuggets…

Recently, I wrote about the big opportunity shaping up in Europe as its banks look to unload assets. I recently listened to Dan Och give a presentation at a Goldman Sachs conference in New York, which had a little more insight into that idea.

Remember, Och is a pretty darn good investor himself. His Och-Ziff Master Fund has returned nearly 10% annually since inception in 1998. And it’s done so with about a third of the volatility of the market as a whole. So Och’s opinions are not like some random CEO popping off about the market.

Let’s get to the presentation…

Asked about the investment landscape in 2012, Och had this to say about Europe:

“We are starting to see certain areas [that] we consider to be asymmetric opportunities. There’s been some substantial dislocation in credit and structured credit in the US and Europe that are very good opportunities for us… Longer term, we see some big opportunities. For example, European banks at some point are likely to start selling substantial amount of assets, and we’re well positioned for that…

“The vast majority of assets that have to be sold have not been sold. If you look at the proposal that was made in late October by the various European authorities that talked about increasing Tier 1 capital on their banks, a big part of how they intend to do that is selling assets…”

“We’ve been in London for 14 years. We have 65 people. We have a distressed credit team. We have a structured credit team. We have a real estate team. We have all of the resources and capabilities. We’ve done an enormous number of transactions there.”

After hearing this, I started to think OZM itself might also wind up being a good play on the “Biggest Fire Sale in History.”

Regards,

Chris Mayer, 
for The Daily Reckoning

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Joel’s Note: As we mentioned last week, we ain’t never met a mob we wanted to join, nor a trend we wanted to follow. In investment, as in life, it pays to just make like that annoyingly catchy Fleetwood Mac song and just go your own way.

Of course, that’s not always easy. There’s the persistent temptation to feel like a real jackass when you look around and find yourself the only one buying stock ABC, or wearing t-shirt XYZ, or listening to music 123. But if your analysis is good, if your convictions are true, you’ll quite often find the world eventually coming around to your side.

In fact, going his own way has taken Chris Mayer around the world on a seemingly never-ending investment field trip. He’s pounded the pavement in India and China and across South East Asia, South America, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and his travel agent knows where else. The resulting material colors Chris’ next book, due out any week now, titled World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents.

Now that’s due diligence.

If you’d like to take part in our first ever free book launch, simply head to this link for more info.

Also, Chris will be on RT tomorrow around 4:30pm to chat about his World Right Side Up investment perspective tomorrow. Be sure to check it out.

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Here at The Daily Reckoning, we value your questions and comments. If you would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to your managing editor at joel@dailyreckoning.com” title=”joel@dailyreckoning.com” target=”_blank”>joel@dailyreckoning.com

Avoiding Market Myths – An exclusive free seminar for MoneyTalks audience. Register today!

neil mcIver

Thursday, April 5th at 6:30pm at the Vancouver Club.

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