Currency
The Japanese Yen has fallen dramatically during the past two months – developments in Japan have had a HUGE impact on markets around the world – a BIG market turn may be close.
The Yen has been rising against the US$ for 40 years…it began its last major rally in 2007…and despite forecasts from a number of high profile analysts (i.e. Kyle Bass) that it was going to take a big tumble it traded to All Time Highs in October 2011 before turning lower. It had an initial breakdown through the 5 year up-trend line in early 2012…rallied back to “kiss” the underside of the uptrend line…and then rolled over…gaining momentum to the downside around November 12, 2012…front-running the dramatic reflationary policies advocated by Abe as it became apparent that he was going to win the December elections.
The Japanese Yen has tumbled as Abe has implemented VERY DRAMATIC REFLATIONARY MEASURES in an attempt to end two decades of deflation in Japan. He has put the Bank of Japan under intense pressure to increase the money supply and target 2% inflation. He has legislated massive government spending programs…and talks of much more to come. These policies have had a powerful influence on markets around the world…it has been “Risk-On” in a BIG way.
Global Stock markets have been boosted by Japanese policies:
The S+P 500 closed this past week at 5 year highs…up ~10% from the Nov 16 lows. The higher beta small cap Russell 2000 is up ~15.5% during the same period to All Time Highs. The TSE is up ~7%, the UK FTSE is up ~9%, the German DAX is up ~11% and the Japanese Nikkei is up ~26% to its best levels in 3 years.
Mid-November Key Turn Date:
I often refer to Key Turn Dates in the market…dates when a number of major markets all reverse course on or around the same day……
……read more HERE
You have to continually think outside the box when you’re investing. That’s because, too often, thinking inside the box is a good way to get nailed into a coffin.
When you follow along with everyone else, you risk jumping in too late and your potential profits getting nailed flat. But if you try to think about profit possibilities BEFORE the mass herd of investors catches on, you can find yourself walking on sunshine while the other guy is pushing up daisies.
For example: How many investors know that America’s oil-and-gas boom is also causing a railroad boom?
That might seem counter-intuitive. After all, oil travels by pipeline, not railroad—right?
Not necessarily.
First of all, it takes a long time to build pipelines. So, energy producers are shipping a lot of product by rail while they wait for new pipelines to be built.
She Canna Take Any More, Cap’n;
She’s Gonna Blow!
Second, pipelines, especially the ones coming from Canada, are stuffed to the gills.
Swelling output from Alberta’s oil sands and shale fields in North Dakota’s Bakken region and Eagle Ford in Texas is overwhelming current capacity.
Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP), which controls a big bunch of pipelines shipping oil and gas from Canada to the U.S., says that those pipes can’t take one more barrel than they’re already carrying.
“All of the crude oil export pipelines are pretty much full, running at maximum capacity,” Vern Yu, a vice-president of business development and market development for Enbridge, told a Petroleum Technology Alliance of Canada conference in November.
That was November. Now, it’s SO BAD that Canadian crude recently traded at a $41 discount to West Texas Intermediate. That’s near the record discount of $42.50, which was hit in December.
Why is Canadian crude so cheap? Because there is so much of it, there’s no way—rather, no easyway—to move all of it to market.
And that brings us to railroads.
Check out this chart showing weekly rail carloads of petroleum and petroleum products …

It costs about $10 more per barrel to move oil by railroad compared to pipeline. But when Canadian crude is trading at a $41 discount, that’s not a steep price at all!
More than 200,000 train cars of oil will be shipped in 2013, the most since World War II, according to forecasts from the Association of American Railroads. About 1 million barrels a day of rail-unloading capacity is being built in the United States. That’s more than DOUBLE the current level of shipments, the AAR says.
In fact, it’s getting so lucrative to move oil by railroad that oil and nat-gas pipeline operators are getting into the act. A group of them spent $1 billion on rail-depot projects recently to help move crude from inland fields to refineries on the coast.
Are they moving too late? Heck, no. We won’t see any new pipeline capacity until the end of this year, and no SIGNIFICANT new pipeline capacity until the end of next year.
Speaking of what’s coming, here’s …
The Oil Production Chart You’ve Got to See!
Meanwhile, you’ve seen what’s happening to U.S. oil production, right?

That’s right, U.S. oil production topped 7 million barrels per day for the first time since March 1993, a figure that is nearly 20% above the amount produced at this time last year.
How much oil do you think we’ll be producing by the end of this year? Or the end of next year?
I don’t know the exact number, but we can assume that it will be more.
I do know that the International Energy Agency says the U.S. will produce more oil than Saudi Arabia by 2017 … and I think they’re being rather conservative.
2 Ways to Play It … And
What to Stay Away From!
If the pipelines are full, obviously pipeline operators are going to be rolling in dough. Plus, we can expect that there’s going to be consolidation in that industry.
Also, railroads are an obvious play.
One thing you should consider staying away from (at least for now): oil producers.
I do think there are some real values out there. But the producers have to be able to move their product to the refineries on the coast. And unless you’re willing to do the homework to find out which companies can do that, you’re better off staying out of that sandbox. After all, you don’t want it to be your investing coffin.
However, I’m doing this legwork all the time …even literally, as I make it a point to visit the companies and the people behind them to make sure what looks like a solid investment from afar looks just as good up-close.
So if you’re willing to get ahead of the herd … if you’re curious about the global transformation in energy and how you can cash in … you can get my buy and sell alerts sent straight to your inbox. All you have to do is make the trades and grab the gains!
Click here now to see how you can secure your risk-free trial to my Red-Hot Global Resourcesservice today for a very special price!
Yours for trading profits,
Sean
P.S. Energy stocks are moving up. But making money on them means grabbing the right companies, at the right time, to get the biggest-possible return.
Frankly, that’s why I think the best investment you can make right now is to join my Red-Hot Global Resources service. It’s a small purchase now that can pay off easily in just one strategically placed trade. Don’t wait—claim your membership spot today for a special introductory price!
In an effort to attract investors, bond fund managers are buying debt that’s getting riskier by the minute.
FORTUNE — Wall Street is in the process of turning one of its most plain vanilla investments – and one that average investors have flocked to in recent years because of its perceived safety – into ticking time bombs. Unfortunately, no one should be all that surprised. Wall Street does this all the time.
The latest victim of Wall Street’s reverse alchemy: Bond funds. In the past year or so, managers of these funds have been loading up on debt that on average won’t be paid back until at least 2018, and in some cases much, much later.
Read more about why Bond Funds Are Ticking Time Bombs HERE. In it you’ll find all about:
- Wall Street’s high-yield gravy train might be running out of steam
- A boom time debt product is back with a vengeance
- Jim O’Neil: Mr. BRIC is bullish on China
…..all HERE
Chinese demand for commodities has been buoyant over the last 2 decades or so. In fact, it is believed that the current commodity price boom is a result of Chinese demand. But what exactly drives the demand for commodities? Once we get to know the demand drivers we can link it to the Chinese demographics and try to understand why the demand potential is so high from this dragon nation.
Basically, there are 3-4 factors that essentially drive commodity demand. First is increasing urbanisation. Second is rising population and third is decreasing poverty. It is common sense that rapid urbanisation leads to increasing commodity demand. And we all are aware about the rapid urbanisation that took place in China in the past. In the last two decades, China also witnessed huge population expansion which drove the demand for agricultural commodities. Poverty rates have also been on a decline (drives agricultural commodities and promotes urbanisation). All these factors created a perfect scenario for a commodity bull run driven by China.
But will this run continue in the future as well? In other words, will the Chinese demand remain intact?
In order to answer this question let’s once again re-visit those very factors that drove commodity demand for China. Then we can analyse how China’s demographics have changed now for the commodity demand to witness any shift. For one, it may be noted that most of the urbanisation has already taken place in China. Further, population has also been brought under control. Also, with poverty rates eradicating at a fairly decent pace in the recent past the scope of further eradication seems limited. This will have a direct impact on prices of agricultural commodities.
Thus, it appears that the China factor will longer be enough for the commodity bull run to continue from here on. May be, other countries like India, will have to witness a paradigm shift with respect to the internal architecture on policy making. This can lead to rapid urbanisation and eradication of poverty. Only then can the commodity prices regain their north bound journey.
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