• What Happened To Markets The Last 15 Times The Fed Tightened. One question has gripped investors perhaps more than any other: when will the Fed start tightening monetary policy, and what will happen when it does? 

  Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Bianco says, “Don’t fear interest rate normalization.” That’s the title of one of his recent research notes, which takes a deep dive into what happened to markets each of the 15 times the Fed has embarked on policy tightening since 1965.

  Bianco writes, “DB economists and rate strategists forecast an unchanged Fed Funds rate until 2014. However, they forecast a 3.0% 10yr Treasury yield at 2013 end. When QE ends it will likely be akin to early-cycle Fed tightening and the uptick in long-term yields will represent a cyclical rise in rates, both of which are bullish.”

  Click here to see what happens when the Fed raises rates 

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

• .Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading with the Shanghai Composite down 0.79 percent. The Nikkei was up 1.28 percent after positive Chinese data boosted stocks with exposure to the country. Europe is mixed and U.S. futures are modestly lower. Apple is expected to weigh on the Nasdaq after its earnings report.
• China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI climbed to a 24-month high of 51.9 in January, beating expectations. The sub-indices like new export orders and employment also showed improvement. The $2.1 trillion powder keg near the heart of the Chinese financial system >
• In Europe, French flash manufacturing PMI fell to 42.9 in January, and the composite output index declined to 42.7, showing deeper contraction. Meanwhile, German manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.8, but remained below the contractionary reading of 50. The composite output index however climbed to 53.6.
• Initial claims are out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Markit PMI for January at 8:58 a.m. ET. Analysts polled by Bloomberg are looking for new claims to rise to 360K and for PMI to decline to 54.0.Follow the release at Business Insider >
• Apple shares are down over 9 percent in pre-market trading after yesterday’s earnings report. iPhone sales disappointed, coming in at 47.8 million, against expectations of 50 million. iPad and Mac sales also missed expectations, though iPod sales came in higher. The tech giant reported earnings of $13.81 per share, on revenue of $54.5 billion. Nomura: Apple could go as low as $336 >
• Netflix also reported earnings after the closing bell yesterday. The company beat expectations reportingearnings of $0.13 per share, on revenue of $945 million. It added almost 10 million global streaming members in 2012, raising its total global streaming subscribers to over 33 million. The earnings guidance also beat estimates and its stock is up a whopping 37.01 percent in pre-market trading. Here’s what America’s biggest companies are telling us about the global economy >
• Japanese exports fell 5.8 percent in the year to December, and imports were up 1.9 percent. The trade deficit came in at ¥641.5 billion. 2012 however saw a record trade deficit of ¥6.93 trillion.
• Spain’s Institute of National Statistics put Q4 youth unemployment, defined as those under the age of 25, at 59.8 percent. Spain’s unemployment rate climbed to 26 percent in the fourth quarter, with 5.97 million out of work.
• Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for January is out at 11 a.m ET. Analysts polled by Bloomberg are looking for the manufacturing index to rise to 2.Follow the release at Business Insider >
• Lockheed Martin reported fourth quarter earnings of $1.73 per share, missing expectations. It issued better than expected full-year earnings guidance from continuing operations of $8.60 – $9.10 per share. Microsoft is expected to report earnings of $0.75 per share. Deutsche Bank: These are the 30 best stocks right now >
• Bonus – Tiger Woods is reportedly dating Olympic skier Lindsey Vonn and is thinking of getting married again.

Ignore Information, Listen to the Market!

Order the Mindless Investor book now
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Stockscores Market Minutes Video
Where there is smoke, there is fire. Hot stocks start with abnormal activity and in this week’s Market Minutes video I show you how to spot these stocks early. You can watch it by clicking here. To receive email alerts any time I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores channel at www.youtube.com/stockscoresdotcom.

This week’s Trading Lesson
In theory, information should make the stock market’s world go round. Information about companies and their ability to make money in the future is what should determine share price. As the market learns of new information, price is adjusted up and down to reflect the value of that information.

This implies that investors should focus their analysis on information so they can predict where share prices should go in the future.

While this makes good sense, I have found it to be extremely rare that investors who use information are able to consistently beat the stock market. With smaller retail investors (you and I) in particular, the use of information for making investing decisions is more destructive than it is beneficial. Here are ten reasons why:

1. Information is Usually Already Priced In – most investors use publicly available information. That means it is widely known and available to anyone considering the stock. If information is available to a large number of investors then we should expect that the market will have priced that information in to the stock. Therefore, the information has not value to us.

2. Information Usually Comes with a Bias – as a general rule, people do what they are financially motivated to do. If someone is encouraging you to purchase a stock, there is a good chance that they have some financial motivation to do so. Before you trust the information you receive, understand the financial motivation. If you find the reason, you will often usually find that there is a strong bias in the information being provided to you.

3.Trading on Truly Insider Information is Illegal – there are few risk free trades in the stock market, but trading on significant, inside information is one. You stand to make a lot of money buying stock in a company that will be acquired by another at a premium tomorrow. If you have that information and act on it, you are trading on inside information and that can land you in jail.

4. Gathering Good Private Information is Expensive and Time Consuming – there are investors who are able to uncover information that is not priced in to a stock but is not considered inside information. This private information is valuable because it can lead to market beating returns. However, gathering private information typically requires significant resources, knowledge and time. For small investors, it is not feasible to do this kind of work across a broad range of stocks.

5. Information Causes You to Ignore the Market’s Message – when you have an understanding of a company’s story, there is a tendency to fall in love with that story and ignore new information that goes against your outlook for the stock. This leads the committed shareholder to hang on to a losing position, allowing the loser to bog down the performance of the overall portfolio.

6. You May Not Have All of the Information You Need – the market tends to focus on two or three key information points that affect the price investors are willing to pay for it. An investor who does a thorough fundamental analysis of the stock may still have an incomplete understanding of the company’s business. If missing one of the key points, this investor can make a gross error in valuing the stock.

7. The Market May Not Be Trading On Fundamentals – in theory, stock price is based on the present value of future earnings expectations. In practice, there are often very non fundamental influences on share price. A large investor that has a liquidity crisis may be forced to unload a large position with little regard for price. Often, the laws of supply and demand affect share price even though theory tells us that they should not have an influence.

8. Your Interpretation May Not Be the Same as The Market’s – Our mood affects how we judge information and the same can be said for the market in general. Your fundamental analysis may be correct in an optimistic environment, but if the market is in a pessimistic mood, the investment can lead to losses. Even the market is wrong, it is right.

9. There Is No Standard for What Information is Worth – There are many formulas for determining what a company’s share price should. Many fundamental analysts look for stocks to trade at a certain multiple of their earnings with that multiple to be based on growth. However, there are great variations in accounting methods that can have a profound effect on how earnings are reported. More importantly, there is no rule that a company should trade at a certain multiple of earnings, that target multiple is just an opinion.

10. We Tend to Focus On Information That is Easy to Get – we often looks for the easiest way to achieve a goal. With information, there is a tendency to focus on the information that is front of us. Rather than work to find something to disprove our thesis on a stock, we instead look for information to strengthen our thesis. In doing so, we present our own biased outlook for our investment decisions that can often be very incomplete and wrong.

Ultimately, I look at the market’s interpretation of all available information when I look at a chart of price and volume. It shows not only every bit of information detail but also what the market thinks of it.

In this week’s Market Minutes video, I show how you can use the Stockscores Market Scan tool to find stocks trading with abnormal price and volume activity. This week, I ran a scan that used those filter and found the following two stocks which are making breaks from good chart patterns.

SEED has been a pretty boring stock lately, trading sideways and unable to get through resistance at $1.60. Today it broke through that price level with abnormal volume with a chart pattern that warrants strong Stockscores indicators. Support at $1.57.

HNSN has been building rising bottoms on its chart since September and broke out through resistance today with abnormal volume supporting the break. Support at $2.18.

1. SEED
SEED has been a pretty boring stock lately, trading sideways and unable to get through resistance at $1.60. Today it broke through that price level with abnormal volume with a chart pattern that warrants strong Stockscores indicators. Support at $1.57.

2. HNSN
HNSN has been building rising bottoms on its chart since September and broke out through resistance today with abnormal volume supporting the break. Support at $2.18.

References

• Get the Stockscore on any of over 20,000 North American stocks.
• Background on the theories used by Stockscores.
• Strategies that can help you find new opportunities.
• Scan the market using extensive filter criteria.
• Build a portfolio of stocks and view a slide show of their charts.
• See which sectors are leading the market, and their components.

   

  Disclaimer
  This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The writers and editors of Perspectives may have positions in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don’t consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.