Timing & trends

Peter Grandich: Market Update

U.S. Stock Market – I’ve shown since the first of the year a technical chart of the DJIA in what is known as a “megaphone” position. I noted that it suggested we could see 15,000 – 15, 500 before topping out.

We’re now in a danger zone. Many signs of a major top are now taking hold. TOUT-TV has gone back to beating their puny chests (as they have done at other major tops) and a sense that so long as the FED continues QE the market can’t miss. When you combined this with the fact that the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd have convince the investing public (and themselves) one must always be in stock or bonds or both (Remember, you can toss one of the Talking Heads off the top of the Empire State Building and all the way down they will say the same thing – so far so good!), you’re setting up for a major fall.

sc

U.S. Bonds – Here too an air of invincible has gripped the bulls and a sense interest rates are never, ever going to rise substantially so keep partying-on dude. Bonds are clearing the worse of two evils versus stocks.

sc-1

U.S. Dollar Index – Quietly and without much discussion, the technical picture of the Index gets worse. All sorts of failed momentum and relative strength indicators are screaming this

sc-2

Gold – The next $50 move in gold could very well signal where the next $500 goes. A close above $1,500 and the gold “take-down” a few weeks ago blows up in the bears faces big-time. However, if we for some reason go back under $1,400, the bears could collapse the market. The good thing this time around my heart and brain both believe its to the upside. Remember, physical buyers around the world continue to say only one thing on any decline.

sc-3

Mining and Exploration Shares – I’ve received numerous inquiries about my alternative to traditional financial planning process and many who have contacted me all share a common position with me – we got killed in junior resource stocks. That’s why I think on any real rally we’re  going to see more than usual resistance as like me, these folks don’t want the financial and mental anguish anymore of being in such a position. A close above $1,500 and more importantly $1,700 in gold, is what needed to get the juniors moving up again in a big way.

Today’s TrendTRAKR for US Equities is now available.

If you are interested in our TrendTRAKR for Canadian Equities (S&P/TSX60) or Australian Equities (S&P/ASX200), please email Eileen at eileen@weldononline.com and we’ll be sure to email them to you, daily, until they are available on our website or your trial period ends.  Our TrendTRAKRs for Metals & Energy Equities, Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income are all ‘soon to be released’.  Let us know if you’d like to be added to our ‘waitlist’ for their release.

For those new to our TrendTRAKR, please use the links below to view our Tutorials.
 
 
Tutorial I is an introduction to our TrendTRAKR tool with background on the development of our TMIs (Trend Momentum Indicators) and key definitions of terms. 
 
Tutorial II is a comprehensive walk thru of the four excel worksheets inside TrendTRAKR.
 
Printable Tutorial in pdf form, click here: http://www.weldononline.com/samples/TrendTRAKR-sample1.pdf
 
We hope you find these tutorials helpful in getting familiar with this powerful tool and we welcome any questions or comments.
 
Please click here www.weldononline.com and log into your account to access the latest publication from Weldon Financial.
 
Gregory T. Weldon
 
top

I would really encourage you to participate

MC horz cropped - 2013CLICK to listen to Michael’s “sneak peek” into the upcoming Emergency Gold Summit on May 23rd.

Order you tickets today as seating is extremely limited. Click on the Store button or banner ad.

 

 

SPOT GOLD PRICES slipped back below $1470 per ounce Thursday morning in London, drifting as world stock markets failed to follow Wall Street higher, where equities yesterday hit new all-time highs.

Silver held above $24.00 per ounce, just shy of last week’s finish, as commodities slipped overall.

A rise in Sterling after the Bank of England held its monetary policy unchanged drove gold prices down to £942 per ounce for UK investors. 

Government bond prices meantime rose everywhere except Australia and New Zealand, where strong new jobs data saw both currencies jump together with interest rates.

Spain today raised €4.5 billion ($6.5bn) in new debt at sharply lower interest rates from its last bond auction in April.

Neighboring Portugal has “already been able to totally finance our needs for this year” the finance minister said earlier this week, adding that Lisbon is now aiming to start pre-financing its 2014 needs and plan an exit from the €78bn bail-out it received from the European Union and IMF in 2011.

“The downtrend in [gold’s Relative Strength Index] is bearish,” says the latest technical comment from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, “as it indicates that gold is becoming overbought at progressively lower levels, and becoming oversold at progressively lower levels.”

Even so, “Gold still has some room to move higher before making its next leg down,” Scotia’s note adds.

In terms of private-investor demand, “The pace of buying has cooled,” says another broker, pointing to “the frenzied pace” following the 30-year record price crash of mid-April.

“We suspect that those sitting on the fence and waiting for cheaper prices may yet have another shot at getting back in.”

Amongst the exchange-traded trust funds favored by money managers buying gold, the giant SPDR Gold Trust shed another 6 tonnes on Wednesday, taking the quantity of bullion held to back its shares to the lowest level since March 2009 at 1051 tonnes.

“Indian physical demand is strong,” says James Steel at London market-maker HSBC, “and the combined response by consumers and retail investors to the plunge in prices since mid-April is absorbing a portion of the liquidation in the gold-exchange traded funds.”

“No end in sight for precious metals appetite across the globe,” agrees Swiss refining and finance group MKS, “especially out of China and India” – the world’s No. 2 and No.1 consumer markets respectively.

“The question is who will win the battle between the unprecedented physical demand, and the unrelenting ETF supply.”

Importers are rushing to beat new gold restrictions proposed by India’s central bank, according to Rajesh Khosla, managing director at MMTC-PAMP India, in New Delhi.

“Supported by strong physical demand from India and China,” says Mumbai-based brokerage Emkay, “gold prices in India can be supported by physical demand ahead of Akshay Tritiya” – the spring festival celebrated this year on May 13 and traditionally an auspicious day on some Hindu calendars for buying gold. 

Indian jewelers are buying gold at up to $12 an ounce over benchmark London prices, Livemint quotes Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.

That compares with $2 an ounce before mid-April’s slump in global gold prices.

With gold gifts now in demand for the Indian wedding season – which runs until July –”Should you buy gold [for your own portfolio] this Akshaya Tritiya?” asks Jayant Manglik, president of retail distribution at Indian brokerage Religare Capital, writing for MoneyControl.

“The unambiguous answer is yes. Having gold in the portfolio increases diversification & security while reducing risk & volatility. It is liquid in any country in the world and is virtually physically indestructible.

“The right mix would have between 10 to 15% of your investible surplus.”

On the supply side, meantime, the world’s largest gold miner corporation – Barrick Gold – has restructured a deal with the Dominican Republic to share more of the revenues from its giant Pueblo Viejo project with the government.

Barrick cut half-a-billion Dollars of new exploration spending from its 2013 plans following April’s price crash.

Gold mining output from South Africa – formerly the world’s #1 producer nation, but now in 6th place after production halved since 2000 – fell again in March, new data showed today, down a further 6.2% from a year earlier to the lowest levels in nine decades.

 

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

10 Questions To Ask When Choosing A Financial Advisor

When people think of their money and how it is managed, they often zoom in on one metric — how well their investments performed compared to the broader market.

But a new survey reveals that another big factor determines whether someone is satisfied with his or her investment firm: the financial advisor.

“The study finds that there are two elements beyond investment performance separating firms with high satisfaction from those with low satisfaction: the person that investors credit for their investment performance and the relationship investors have with their advisor,” said Craig Martin, director of investment services at J.D. Power & Associates, which conducted the study.

When it comes to our money, how well our investments do is out of our control — as they say, past performance is not an indicator of future results. But, who we choose to manage our money is.

pt 1257 14396 oFor that reason, you’ll want to search and vet all candidates carefully. Here’s how to find an advisor who is a good fit for your money needs.

How to Find the Right Candidates

Start by asking friends and family for referrals, says Minneapolis-based certified financial plannerSophia Bera and, in particular, get recommendations from people whose financial needs, outlook or stage of life is similar to yours. Before contacting planners, look them up online and on LinkedIn to get a sense of what each firm is like. Something as simple as the photos on their homepages can indicate which ones are targeting your demographic.

Also, search for a planner directly on the sites of theFinancial Planning Association and the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors. The advisors on the latter organization’s site are fee-only, meaning they will not earn commissions for selling you specific investments but simply charge you a rate, usually based on the assets you put under management. Many experts say that a fee-only advisor is preferable, to eliminate conflicts of interest and ensure he or she always acts with your best interest at heart.

But there is one case when you may not want a fee-only advisor, says Bera — and that’s if you want him or her to also help you with annuities, life insurance or disability insurance — basically, other investment vehicles besides stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. If so, look for a firm that has a broker-dealer. “They’ll get a commission [for selling you those products],” says Bera, “but some people want a firm that has a broker-dealer so they don’t have to go to someone else for disability or life.”

Once you’ve gotten a list of potential advisors, take one more step before setting up appointments to meet: Find out whether each has ever been disciplined for any unlawful or unethical behavior. You can do this using the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s (FINRA) BrokerCheck. You can also look the advisors up on the CFP Board’s site, to verify that they each have CFP certification status.

When you have your initial interview, here are the questions you want to ask:

1. How much do you charge for your services?

If you didn’t see this information on the planner’s web site, ask whether there’s an initial planning fee, whether they charge a percentage for assets under management, or whether they make money from selling you a specific product. Not only should you know how much the service will cost you, but it can help you determine whether they have an incentive to sell you things.

2. What licenses, credentials or other certifications do you have?

Of the four main types of financial advisors, the certified financial planner (CFP) designation is harder to achieve than Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC), because the former requires a comprehensive board exam; the latter, however uses the same core curriculum. If you want someone to manage your money, then look for a registered investment advisor (RIA). If you have a high income or a small business owner, you’ll probably want a certified public account (CPA), who can offer you advance tax planning. The personal financial specialist (PSF) certification is usually obtained by CPAs who want to demonstrate they can help clients with comprehensive financial planning.

3. What services do you/does your firm provide?

Implicit in this question is also what assistance the advisor will not give you. “Some people are just investment advisors and only provide you advice on your investments,” says Bera. “Other people do comprehensive financial planning around retirement, insurance, estate planning and tax planning.” Go with someone whose offerings suit your needs.

4. What types of clients do you specialize in?

Some financial advisors have a niche, says Bera, and if you have a specific interest — such as charitable giving or socially responsible investments or if you’re a newlywed or recently divorced — you’ll want to find one that concentrates in that area too.

Edward A. Wacks, a CPA and CFP affiliated with Ameriprise Financial , says, “Most advisors tend to focus on people within 10 years of their age.” He for instance, focuses on soon-to-be retirees because he’s 61, and business owners because he has his own business. “I feel we have some commonality, and I understand their issues,” he says.

…..read 5-10 on page HERE

test-php-789