Gold & Precious Metals

HSBC’s Metals Analysts James Steel and Howard Wen write in a research note that ETF demand for physical silver has a strong influence on the overall demand for the metal.

HSBC is forecasting silver prices between 17 and 23 dollars through the end of this year as silver supplies are likely to build up a bit of a surplus amidst weaker demand from the exchange traded funds.

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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. crude-oil futures pulled back Thursday for their fifth straight down day, while natural gas jumped even after weekly data showed a bigger-than-expect rise in supplies.

Crude oil for September delivery CLU3 -0.79%  slumped 97 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $103.40 a barrel. The contract erased early gains after nearing the $105 level early Thursday on major oil importer China reporting encouraging trade data for July.

September Brent crude UK:LCOU3 -0.72% also lost ground, falling 76 cents, or 0.7%, to $106.68 a barrel on ICE Futures.

Natural gas for September deliveryNGU13 +2.43% jumped 5 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $3.30 per million British thermal units after the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The contract had traded near $3.24 before the EIA report, then dived to around $3.13 briefly before rallying back, according to FactSet data.

Domestic natural-gas supplies rose significantly more than expected for the week ended Aug. 2, the EIA said. Supplies grew by 96 billion cubic feet, while analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a net addition between 74 billion cubic feet and 78 billion cubic feet.

Platts had noted the number would be much higher than average amid mild weather across much of the U.S. that reduced natural-gas demand for power generation.

Natural gas may have snapped back for technical reasons, according to Jonathan Krinsky, a technical analyst at Miller Tabak. “The continuous contract […] came close to the February lows around $3.135, and has hit the downtrend support line,” he said in emailed commentary. “Therefore, we would not be surprised to see a bounce from this area.”

Gold Silver Stop Order Locations for August 8

Posted by Jim Wyckoff - KitcoJim Wy

on Thursday, 8 August 2013 19:46

Below are today’s likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

A detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader can be found HERE

 

 

On Short Covering, China News, Weaker U.S. Dollar.

Comex gold futures prices rallied sharply in late-morning dealings to end the U.S. day session with solid gains. Both gold and silver saw heavy short-covering following selling pressure seen earlier this week, with some bargain hunting also featured. The weaker U.S. dollar index Thursday was also a supportive outside market factor for the precious metals markets. Chinese economic data released Thursday was also bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector. China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year-on-year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June. Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year-on-year. December gold was last up $23.80 at $1,309.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $22.70 at $1,310.50. September Comex silver last traded up $0.667 at $20.175 an ounce.

The gold and silver market bulls had good days Thursday, but have more heavy lifting to do in the near-term to get healthy from a charts perspective.

In other news Thursday, the European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide. The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement.

The U.S. dollar index was weaker again Thursday and hit another six-week low overnight. The greenback bears have the overall near-term chart advantage, which is an underlying bullish factor for the precious metals markets. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices were solidly lower Thursday. The crude oil bulls have faded this week and a bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,298.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,282.50.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Thursday. Gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears’ next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $1,271.80. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,313.80 and then at this week’s high of $1,320.30. First support is seen at $1,300.00 and then at $1,290.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

September silver futures prices closed nearer the session high Thursday and closed at a two-week high close. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $20.595 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $20.30 and then at $20.595. Next support is seen at $19.75 and then at Thursday’s low of $19.455. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 965 points at 326.95 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh six-week high on heavy short covering and bargain hunting following the strong economic data out of China. Price action Thursday also saw a bullish upside “breakout” from a choppy trading range on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 341.25 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 303.65 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 327.95 cents and then at 330.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at 323.40 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (COMFCOMF) rose to minus 23.5 for the period ended Aug. 4, its strongest reading since January 2008, a report today showed. The averagenumber of workers applying for jobless benefits declined to 335,500 in the four weeks ended Aug. 3, the least since November 2007, according to Labor Department data.

All income groups save one saw confidence improve last week, with the biggest advances coming at the lower end of the pay scale, signaling the job market is thawing for a bigger share of households. The decline in worker dismissals may be a precursor to a pickup in hiring, which will sustain household spending and give the expansion a lift for the rest of 2013.

“The labor market is probably the most important determinant of the rise in confidence,” said Jim O’Sullivan, the Valhalla, New York-based chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, and the second-best forecaster of claims over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “If the labor market keeps chugging along, as it seems likely to do, consumer spending should start to pick up in the second half.”

Shares fluctuated between gains and losses, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreating after briefly topping 1,700. TheS&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 1,692.68 at 11:54 a.m. in New York.

….read more about Growing Exports HERE