Currency

The Last Hurrah For the Eurozone

Screen Shot 2013-10-17 at 9.43.13 AMIRELAND: THE LIFEBLOOD OF THE EUROZONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS

 
The whole thing is quite hopeless, so it’s no good worrying about tomorrow. It probably won’t come.

J.R.R. Tolkien

Greetings!

The 20-period Bollinger Bands on a chart of EIRL (iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF) narrowed dramatically. And now they are expanding. Along those lines, an indicator I like to watch suggests EIRL is in the second day of a five-day move to the upside.

I suspect such a move could coincide with the last hurrah for Eurozone markets in the intermediate-term …

 
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The Best & Maybe The Only Way to Do It

Michael Mike Campbell image Michael points out the only way that the Canadian Government can raise the money necessary to fund all of our Social Services. Fortunaltely Canada has what it needs to do so.

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Gold jumped the most in four weeks after Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. cut its credit rating for the U.S. and on speculation the Federal Reserve will postpone slowing stimulus. Dagong cut the local and foreign currency credit ratings of the U.S. today to “A-” from “A.”

“There was a knee-jerk reaction to the Chinese downgrading,” said David Wilson, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London, which estimated about 10 million ounces of gold and 16 million ounces of silver traded after the report. “When the ultimate worry is about the dollar, maybe you go to gold.”

Gold for immediate delivery climbed as much as 3 percent to $1,321.38 an ounce, the most since Sept. 18. Futures trading volume was 77 percent above average for the past 100 days for this time of day, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

A PICTURE OF AMERICA’S FINANCES

Great News! The Fiscal Crisis is Over!

The D.C. press corps was giddy last night, declaring that the fiscal crisis had ended. Senators praised “honorable friends” from “great states,” congressmembers gave standing O’s to their stalwart leaders, and the president saluted bipartisanship while ridiculing Republicans, bloggers, activists and pretty much anyone else who dared oppose him.

If the whole thing seemed a bit surreal, it’s because the whole thing was a bit surreal. America’s fiscal crisis is not that our debt ceiling isn’t quite high enough — it’s that we have too much debt.

It’s as if I had $250K in credit card debt and I told my wife, “Great news, honey — our fiscal crisis is over! I just got a new Visa!” If she didn’t hit me over the head with a rolling pin, she would most assuredly tell me where I should place it.

To help visualize how up the creek we find ourselves, I created an infographic –

 

Screen Shot 2013-10-18 at 9.04.24 AM

It’s an imperfect analogy, but imagine the green is your salary, the yellow is the amount you’re spending over your salary, and the red is your MasterCard statement. Before sharing this info with your spouse, I recommend you hide the rolling pin.

When a conservative hesitates before raising the debt ceiling, he’s portrayed as a madman. When Paul Ryan offers a thoughtful plan to pay down debt over decades, he’s pushing grannies into the Grand Canyon and pantsing park rangers on the way out.

Forget sustainable — how is this sane? 

Irrational situations provoke irrational responses. Ted Cruz may not have mapped out a winning strategy to end Obamacare, but he energized millions of Howard Beales yelling, “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”

It seems the only way to make the press notice the real fiscal crisis is to elect another Republican president.

 

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Markets Are Always Right

DJIND-D-10-16-2013

The fundamentals are really worthless because you can always extract just the ones to support your current view to “talk your own book” as they say. The Dow Jones Industrials bottomed within the channel nicely on the daily level and the target was on point as well the first week of October – the 9th (see Array). This is NOT a pattern of a major top. This is a basing pattern and equities may be the last savior we have. If you cannot store gold, you cannot keep excess money in a bank, and if you are European, well you may just have to get as much out of Europe as you possibly can – equities are movable, transportable, and liquid.

This is why I do not like people who try to pretend the sale in gold on Friday was not real. It is better to realize the trend so you DO NOT buy losing your shirt and then lose confidence or your marriage because you followed some gold “analyst” who just talks it up and his own self-interest. If the market is doing something you think is wrong, well may be you better check you logic.

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