Personal Finance
I was in Southern California for the last couple of days and got to see how the economy was doing on the ground. Although consumers are not overly confident with respect to the economy, they do seem to be spending in the region (this contrasts with the rest of the U.S. where retail spending has been weaker than expected). So, why are we seeing sustained consumer activity in Southern California? It might be because of the “wealth effect” and how it pertains to housing.
Southern California has recently seen a spike in housing prices. Just a quick look at www.zillow.com will confirm this. The Fed’s Quantitative Easing policy of money-printing appears to have gained traction by injecting more optimism into the region’s housing market. It should also be noted that Southern California was hit harder than a lot of other areas, such as the U.S. Pacific Northwest, during the collapse of the subprime housing bubble. As a result, it was starting from a lower base and more likely to add QE-inspired gains.
However, much of the revival in Southern California housing prices is sugar-coated by perception. As the first graph above illustrates, the move up in prices since 2009 has been impressive. Buying a house as an investment doesn’t look all that risky. And, with all the emotional enticements of real estate, potential buyers are not inclined to broaden their historical perspective (unless they were hurt by real estate during the crash). If we look at the second graph, the last 13 years of house prices in the region tell a different story. We are still 25% below the 2006 peak and only back to mid-2004 prices. That’s over nine-years of going nowhere while paying Southern California’s famously high property taxes all the way along!
The region is going to need substantially improved economic growth and employment growth in order to sustain recent gains. Without that, all eyes will eventually focus on where these gains came from: Quantitative Easing. And, to the chagrin of the Fed, those eyes will constantly be handicapping the eventual end of Quantitative Easing and begin to make investment/spending/home-buying decisions long before that.
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Michael focuses on the remark that former Central Banker Alan Greenspan made, and the implications that it has on your life.
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Stocks pushed higher on Tuesday as investors positioned portfolios ahead of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. Investors overwhelmingly expect no change to present stimulus measures as a result of recent lacklustre employment reports that were less than expected. Despite the risk-on trading environment that would be implied by maintaining stimulus measures, consumer staples, a defensive sector, continues to dominate market performance. Sectors that have lagged the market activity as of recent, such as the consumer staples and energy, outperformed the market on Tuesday in what may be construed as month-end positioning; cyclical sectors that have led the markets higher over recent weeks, such as industrials and materials, underperformed broad market benchmarks during the session. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index, the classic risk-on play, is also starting to show signs of lagging broad market performance. Stocks remain significantly overbought and some sort of consolidation appears to be in order to rejuvenate upside momentum.
The gains on the session pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new closing high as the blue chip index attempts to join the other benchmarks in previously uncharted territory. The Dow is presently testing the upper limit of an over 6 month trading range. The Dow has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 since mid-April due to lagging performance in Exxon Mobil, IBM, and Caterpillar, each of which typically trend positive into the end of the year.
….read more from EquityClock HERE & the full daily report including Interesting Charts from Don Vialoux’s Timing the Market HERE
And How to Invest in 4D Printing….
4D Printing Potential Makes Me Drool
After more than 30 years in the markets, I’ve seen all kinds of new technologies that are supposed to change the world. Most are pumped by little-known companies with overly hyped marketing, aggressive underwriters, and little more than vaporware. To say I’m jaded would be an understatement.
But I ran across something recently that positively made my mouth drop.
We already know about 3D printing. It’s all the rage right now, because you can buy a printer for a few thousand bucks and cook up whatever your computer can plot.
But 4D printing?
…..read all about it and the companies to invest in HERE
Ed Note: Here is the latest remarkable story about 3D printing (scroll down): Need a Hand? Boy Gets Prosthetic Hand Made by 3-D Printer (Cost $5 vs. $30,000 Medical Device)