Stocks & Equities

Most Asian stocks fell, dragging the regional benchmark index lower for a second day, after U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped this month.

Industrial Bank of Korea sank 4.6 percent as South Korea government sells 13.2 million of shares in the lender. BHP Billiton Ltd. lost 0.9 percent in Sydney after copper prices fell for the first time in more than a week. Rakuten Inc. surged 10 percent after the website operator said it will increase its dividend following a plan to move its listing to the First Section of the TokyoStock Exchange.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1 percent to 141.46 as of 9:32 a.m. in Tokyo, as two shares fell for each that rose. The gauge gained 9.5 percent this year through yesterday as central banks around the world pledged to leave interest rates near record lows for a prolonged period. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed.

“Data on balance still looks murky,” Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $25 billion, said by e-mail. “Most importantly, there was a surprise decline in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index yesterday traded at 13.9 times estimated earnings, close to the multiple of 14 reached on Nov. 18, which was the highest since May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares to a current multiple of 16.3 on the S&P 500 and 15.1 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

Regional Gauges

Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.2 percent. Markets are yet to open in China and Hong Kong.

More than $8 trillion has been added to the value of global equities this year, the biggest increase since 2009, as central banks took steps to shore up economies worldwide. The S&P 500 is poised for its best annual performance since 1998, with an increase of 26.4 percent through yesterday. Three rounds of Fed bond purchase programs have helped push the S&P 500 up 166 percent from a bear-market low reached in 2009.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 70.4 in November from a revised 72.4 in October, which was stronger than initially estimated, the New York-based private research group said yesterday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists called for a November reading of 72.6.

Hong Kong

Contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.4 percent in the most recent trading session, while Hang Seng China Enterprises Index futures declined 0.5 percent. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index of the most-traded Chinese stocks in New York climbed 0.8 percent yesterday.

Sayuri Shirai, a Bank of Japan board member who voted against a report at the bank’s Oct. 31 meeting, speaks to reporters today in Tokushima.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda helped drive a 46 percent surge in Japan’s Topix this year by maintaining monetary easing as he and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sought to jolt the nation out of 15 years of deflation. The Topix is the best performing of 24 developed markets tracked by Bloomberg, on course for its biggest annual advance since 1999.

U.S. stocks pared gains in the final minutes of trading yesterday before changes in MSCI Inc. indexes, offsetting a rally among homebuilders and technology shares. The Nasdaq Composite Index topped 4,000 for first time in 13 years. The S&P 500 added less than 0.1 percent to 1,802.75, after earlier rising as much as 0.3 percent.

The U.S. flew two unarmed B-52 bombers into a disputed air-defense zone claimed by China, the first test of China’s response amid escalating tensions in the region that have implications for international air travel.

The flight of bombers into China’s newly claimed zone occurred without incident, according to a U.S. defense official. The area includes three islands in the East China Sea that are owned by Japan, a major U.S. ally, and have been at the center of a dispute between Asia’s two biggest economies.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in Sydney at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah McDonald atsmcdonald23@bloomberg.net

Harsh Changes Coming – “For the better of mankind”

 “Those of us who have been in combat during any war know the idiocy and tragedy of a world where man is pitted against man.  My feeling is that at some future time, we will look back at the current age and shake our heads at its savagery and stupidity … The changes coming, I am convinced, will be harsh.  And in the end, for the better of mankind. 

The Godfather of newsletter writers, 89 yr old Richard Russell who has never taken a day off since he began writing in 1958 went on:

A few thoughts about gold.  Never buy gold for a profit, gold is a measure of wealth.  Count your gold holdings in the number of ounces, not the current worth in dollars.  You don’t price the home you live in every day, or with each passing week.  Nor should you price your gold holdings in dollars with each passing day.  Gold is a timeless wealth asset; an asset that will have a value with the passing of time.  

Remember this:  Of the original issues that made up the Industrial Average, only one remains.  And that stock is General Electric.  And what happened to all the rest?  In investing, nothing is permanent except gold.  But remember, do not buy gold with the idea of making a profit.  Buy gold because it is pure wealth, and may be the last man standing.

Late Notes — With gold down 3 points today, the gold mining stocks were all down.  This is tax loss selling.  Keep your eye on the bullion price.  The Dow continues to push up as expected, although warnings are coming out of the woodwork from every direction.  Money managers are afraid to leave the festivities so they will stay with the market until the bitter end.

Remember that megaphone pattern in the Dow? We’re now at the upper trendline.  This could take the Dow as high as 17,000 to complete the pattern.

KWN Russell 11-26-2013

Between the technical position of the market and the uncertain position of the fed, we can expect erratic and hard to analyze action in the coming weeks.

At such a crucial area, I expect the market to be irregular and unstable.  Also, the Dow has just closed above 16,000 and this can act like a high wire.  The main trend continues higher and the melt-up that I expect still lies ahead.  Speculative positions in the DIAs can be held.

………………………………….

Russell added: “The watch on watches.  The ads are loaded with announcements for expensive watches.  It seems that every big designer has his own brand of watch for sale.  Why?  The mark-up on watches is absolutely huge.  They can be made in Switzerland, Japan or China. 

Only two brands are worth anything — Rolex or Patek Philippe.

Do yourself a favor — send for the Stauer catalogue and look it over.  I’ve bought dozens of watches (gifts) from this outfit, and they are eye-openers.  They sell for around $200 and they compete with the multi-thousand dollar watches that you see advertised everywhere.  A designer can order 500 watches and mark them up hugely.  Then if they don’t sell, he can dump his unsold inventory and recoup his losses.  Buying expensive designer watches is a sucker’s game.”

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE. 

 

About Richard Russell

Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron’s during the late-’50s through the ’90s. Through Barron’s and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-’66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-’74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

Letters are published and mailed every three weeks. We offer a TRIAL (two consecutive up-to-date issues) for $1.00 (same price that was originally charged in 1958). Trials, please one time only. Mail your $1.00 check to: Dow Theory Letters, PO Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038 (annual cost of a subscription is $300, tax deductible if ordered through your business).

 

 

HEDGING STRATEGIES For Uncertain Times

Risk being an inherent and precarious element of investing, hedging is basically an investment strategy employed to reduce risk by making a transaction in one market to offset a loss in another. Put more simply, hedging is taking equal and opposite positions in two negatively correlated (meaning if security A goes up, then security B goes down, and vice-versa) securities to lower risk of loss.

Theoretically, a perfect hedge would be one that eliminates all and any risk altogether from an investor’s portfolio, but that would mean there is no potential for upside either. In the real world, therefore, hedging is used by hedge funds preponderantly to reduce volatility and risk while trying to protect principal and deliver positive (absolute) returns under any and all market conditions.

Screen Shot 2013-11-26 at 4.00.46 PMHedge funds, actually a misnomer as not all investment strategies involve hedging, use a wide variety of alternative strategies to invest. As opposed to mutual funds, hedge funds are exempt from many rules and regulations of the SEC (and also do not have disclosure requirements). This gives hedge funds the flexibility, and advantage, of being able to invest with a wider range of strategies including hedging strategies to protect downside risk.

Some of the hedging techniques, each involving an array of financial implements and each offering different degrees of risk and reward, employed by hedge funds are outlined below and can be utilized by sophisticated individual investors to protect their own portfolio.

SHORT SELLING

While short selling by itself is not a hedging strategy (it is often used, though, as a hedging strategy in the context of a long-only portfolio), it is important to understand it in order to appreciate how it works as one leg of a hedging strategy.

When short selling, an investor sells borrowed shares with the anticipation that the price of the share will decline and with the intent of returning the shares back to the borrower. This is also referred to as taking a short position, as opposed to a long position (i.e. simply buying the security) which is opened in the expectation that the price of a particular stock will rise in the future.

If in actuality the price of the borrowed shares does drop, then the investor profits from buying back the borrowed shares sold and returning them to the borrower at the original price. To further clarify the profit made from a short transaction, let us consider this simple example: Assume that 100 shares are sold short by an investor for $5 a piece and her account is credited for $500. Say the price per share drops, as anticipated by the investor, to $3 and she closes out the position by buying back the 10 borrowed shares for $300. The investor makes a profit of $200, the difference between the short sale, i.e. $500, and the closing of the position, i.e. $300.

Screen Shot 2013-11-26 at 4.00.57 PMThis all might seem simple, however, an in-depth analysis has to be undertaken by an investor to arrive at the premise that the price of a particular share will in fact fall and not rise. If the price of the share does increase, the investor will end up with the short end of the stick (no pun intended) and lose money.

Technically, the furthest the price of a share can drop to is zero and hence the upside is limited to the amount of investment, but the downside is theoretically infinite for there is no limit to what the price of a share might rise to. For this very reason the fluctuation in the price of the shares in question is followed with painstaking diligence by the investor. (Not to get ahead of ourselves, a cautious investor can hedge his short-selling risk by purchasing a call option on the same shares.)

LONG/SHORT EQUITY

Hedge funds utilize this strategy which involves buying certain stocks long and selling others short. This strategy was pioneered by Alfred W. Jones who is credited with starting the first hedge fund, A.W. Jones & Co., in 1949. Mr. Jones formulated the idea of hedging stocks by going both long and short with the aim to lessen the effects of market risk by hedging long equity positions with short positions.

To further clarify how market risk is hedged in this strategy, say that an investor might short sell a stock while buying a different one in the same industry. Now if the industry declines overall, then the short position would compensate for the loss acquired in the long position and in the case that the industry stocks rise the reverse would be true.

In either case, however, an astute balancing act has to be performed by the investor in estimating and hedging the risk to market exposure. Market exposure is determined by subtracting short positions from long positions, and the higher the difference (referred to as being ‘net long’), the higher the market risk.

ARBITRAGE

Arbitrage is the practice of simultaneously buying and selling two different, but highly correlated, stocks in the same market to profit from the unjustified disparity in their prices. Conversely, arbitration can be achieved by buying and selling the same stock in different markets and taking advantage of pricing inefficiencies (these opportunities are less and less common in today’s world of electronic trading). Ideally, an arbitrage transaction involves very little (if any) cash outflow and hence has the possibility of a very low-risk profit with very low cost to boot.

Arbitrage, sometimes referred to as ‘risk arbitrage’ or ‘merger arbitrage’, can be applied to special situations where a business is being acquired by, or merging with, another business. When a publicly traded business is being acquired, the acquiring business makes a tender offer – to the shareholders of the business being procured – which is usually higher than the market price. An investor may profit from this situation by buying the shares (at a lower price than the tender offer) of the company being acquired immediately after the tender offer has been announced, and then turning around to sell the shares back to the acquiring company at the tender price.

Practically speaking, the risk involved in jumping into the fray of special situations relies upon two main factors: Will the merger or acquisition go through? And, if it does go through, what will be the amount of the final tender offer? These two risks can be taken head-on and be classified as pre-emptive and post-tender respectively. The former being more risky as it is speculative and visceral because the investor purchases shares based upon the conjecture that the M&A deal will materialize. And assuming that the merger does go through, the final tender price may come in higher or lower than the original tender. (Again, not to get ahead of ourselves, these risks can be mitigated by being long convertible bonds and short the underlying equity.)

OPTIONS

An option, akin to a future, is essentially a derivative. A derivative is anything whose value is based upon some other asset, i.e. it derives its value from something else. Specifically, derivatives are securities whose prices are based on the prices of an underlying asset, namely equities, bonds, real estate, commodities, etc. Derivatives are prominently used to hedge and reduce risk of an investment in the underlying security. Besides futures, the most common derivatives used for hedging are options which are used to develop a hedging strategy where a loss in an investment can be offset by a gain in the option contract.

Screen Shot 2013-11-26 at 4.01.28 PMThere are myriad ways of using options to hedge a portfolio. One common use of options is to curtail the possibility of losses in a specific security. An investment can be protected by buying a put option on it — this gives the investor the right to sell the investment at a specified price (known as the strike price) for a specified time period. Now, if the stock price falls below the strike price, then the losses can be compensated for by gains in the put option (meaning one does not have to exercise the put option). In the same fashion, a call option can be used to hedge losses arising from a short position in a stock, as the call option gives the investor the right to buy the stock at a specified price.


Is it the right time to buy Vancouver Real Estate or not?

Is it the right time to buy Vancouver Real Estate or not?

This is a question that I am asked on a near daily basis by clients, friends, family, even my barista.

My answer has been consistent since day one; Yes, with strings attached.

In the case of an owner occupied property, which one plans to reside for at least the next 7-10 years; Yes, the right time to buy is today.  Once you (& your Realtor) locate the property that works for you on all levels then what the market is doing on that specific day is of little consequence in the long term.  Market values are like a small yo-yo oscillating on a very large escalator slowly and steadily moving upward.

Key considerations when buying an owner occupied property;

  • Location
  • Layout
  • Age
  • Size
  • Condition (can you afford renovation)
  • Room for growth
  • Recreational amenities
  • Schools
  • Distance from workplace
  • (potential) Suite revenue
  • the list goes on…

If you are able to find the right property for yourself (& your family) that hits high notes on the variables above, Take Action!

Getting all of these variables aligned is something that takes dedication from not only yourself but also the team of industry professionals you surround yourself with.  The process can often consume a few months or more, and for some of my past clients result in over 100 viewings.  This is more than enough to juggle without also trying to ‘time the market’ on that perfect home.

The Vancouver market is sometimes referred to as a roller coaster, however the long steady climbs are rarely followed by as a large of a drop as folks tend to live in fear of.  The historic numbers demonstrate that a detached home in Vancouver has risen from 13K 40 years ago to ~1.1M today. Not in a straight line mind you.  However if you never leave the market straight-line appreciation is not a concern.

One must keep in mind a few keys things;

Very rarely is an accurate short term market prediction made.

The MLS #’s are a poor indicator of what is happening today in the market, as ‘today’ refers to sales that were negotiated on average 3 to 4 months prior. Take the MLS data with a grain of salt.  It is part of the picture for sure, but not the exclusive indicator.

Where then to get the most accurate data?

The front lines; Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, Appraisers, etc.

If you suspect industry insiders may be biased…well perhaps we are;  This would largely be due to our intimate knowledge of the numbers, and influenced further by positive personal experiences with our own homes and investment properties.  Many of us are also invested for the long haul, i.e. a 20yr timeline for a single property.

I suggest that concerns about short term price fluctuation not be a key factor in your own decision to buy.  In the long run you will win by owning, not by sitting on the sidelines.

Real Estate is a get-rich-slow program.

It is all about finding a place you can call home for the duration and weaving your family into the fabric of a community.  Perhaps the timing will prove poor initially – whether you buy this month, next year or three years from now.  However 7-10 years from the date of purchase you will most likely be glad that you bought into whatever market you did.  It is difficult to find many homeowners who regret buying in 2003, just as in 2003 it was hard to find those with regrets over buying in 1993.

Hindsight is significantly simpler than foresight. Focus on the big picture, know that time fixes pretty well every Real Estate mistake as far as values are concerned, and having a place to call home in a community that works for you is perhaps the more important short term and long term goal.

Thank you.

Dustan Woodhouse – dustan@ourmortgageexpert.com

For regular market updates follow me on twitter @DustanWoodhouse

Power Up Your Income

Kevin KonarA FREE seminar with Kevin Konar of RBC Wealth Management on Nov 30th.

As I discussed with Michael on last Saturday’s show here are just a few examples of what we will discuss next week as alternatives to low paying GIC rates:

1) Right now there are several high quality preferred shares available that pay a dividend rate of over 5% per year . These are guaranteed investments with some issuers maturing in just 2 years! So short term, safe and an excellent rate!

2) There are also floating rate preferred shares available from the major Canadian chartered banks that will adjust the dividend rate that they pay you every 3 months based on the 90 treasury bill rate. Right now these preferred shares pay current dividends of around 3% per year, which is equal to an interest equivalent rate of 4% . And when rates go up, so does your rate! This is a great alternative to money market rates and low paying GIC rates!

3) Convertible corporate bonds are excellent investments inside RRSP’s and RRIF’s. These bonds offer safety + capital gain growth potential. Several high quality names are available with rates between 4.5% and 5.5% per year, with the principle guaranteed back within 3 to 6 years. In addition, these bonds also offer capital gain potential based on how their underlying common shares perform.

I have several more alternatives that we will discuss in detail at our presentation next Saturday.

Date: Saturday, November 30th
Time: 10:30 AM start (library doors open at 10 AM)
Place: Welsh Hall inside the West Vancouver Public Library – 1950 Marine Drive – in West Vancouver

Seating is limited. To reserve your complimentary seat, please e-mail Brian Moore at brian.e.moore@rbc.com with your name, contact info and how many will be attending.

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