Energy & Commodities
Bryan Walsh, a senior editor at Time Magazine, engaged in a series of half-truths and anti-science speculation Monday to blame the cold temperatures hitting much of the country this week on man-made Global Warming. Apparently, temperatures reverting back to pre-Climate Change hysteria norms is proof of Climate Change, or something.
The only problem with Walsh’s attempt to further his hoax is that science disagrees with his phony claim that this cold snap has anything to do with Climate Change, Global Warming, or whatever these Truthers are calling it this week.
If you want a real laugh, the infamous Polar Vortex Walsh is blaming on Global Warming today is the same infamous Polar Vortex Time Magazine blamed on Global Cooling in 1974.
Walsh’s deception gets especially oily when he laments the “Sea ice is vanishing from the Arctic thanks to climate change.” Why doesn’t Walsh inform his readers that in the Antarctic ice has hit record levels? Maybe because it is an inconvenient truth.
As I wrote over the weekend, there are all kinds of reasons to not to believe in Global Warming…
…the cover-ups, the media bias, the outright lies; the science just being plain old wrong; the absurdity of using a hundred-or-so years of data on a planet billions of years old; the oh-so bizarre coincidence that the only solution to the “crisis” is to check off every item on the Marxist wish-list; the fact that Global Warming Believers live their lives like the rest of us instead of preparing for imminent catastrophe…
And let’s not forget the oily shift in branding from Global Cooling to Global Warming to Climate Change…
And we can now add to that Time Magazine’s flip-flopping, half-truth dishonesty.
If these Global Warming Truthers had a case, they wouldn’t hide facts and engage in anti-science fear-mongering.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC
Click Youtube for messaga on wind chill
Economist John Williams thinks 2014 will mark the beginning of hyperinflation. Williams contends, “You are going to see, early on, a crisis in the dollar that will start to trigger the inflation . . . as the inflation picks up, that’s going to savage the economy, which is already in a depression. It never recovered.” Forget what you have heard about the so-called recovery. Williams says, “The consumer is in trouble. There is nothing happening to turn the economy around.” The weak economy is bad news for the dollar. According to Williams, “Anything that would suggest deficit deterioration here, and a weak economy would do that, will have a devastating impact on the dollar.” And if foreigners start selling some of the 12 trillion U.S. dollar based assets, such as bonds and currency, things will turn ugly fast. Williams says, “We’re dependent on the rest of the world continuing to go along with us and continue to support the dollar. That’s not going to happen.” So, the big question everyone is asking is when will the buck take a hit in value? Williams says the dollar will likely begin selling off before the middle of this year, and he adds, “It’s really going to be a currency panic . . . when the fundamental selling pressure really starts to pick up, when the selling gets heavy . . . in turn, the weakness will be seen in a spike in oil prices and a spike in gasoline prices.” Williams says there will be a panic out of the dollar and he predicts,“Once you see a massive sell-off here, I see the game as being over.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.
We’ve recently written quite a bit about the current technical situation in precious metals as well as the current bear market compared to past bear markets. Thus we’ve neglected sentiment somewhat. This is a good time to examine sentiment as the sector appears to be bottoming or trying to emerge from a bottom.
The first chart shows the speculative position (for Gold & Silver combined) as a percentage of open interest. The black is a price index comprised of Gold and Silver. At the June low speculators were only 4.6% long as a percentage of open interest. That marked a 12 year low. It is currently 11% and was as high as 52.8% in 2012.
Before Christmas, public opinion on Silver was near 20% bulls. That was in the bottom 3% of all readings in the past 20 years. At the same time, the speculative position in Silver was in the bottom 8% of all readings in the past 20 years. (Source: SentimenTrader.com)
This chart from Tiho Brkan, shows the Central Fund of Canada and its premium or discount to NAV. At the June low the discount was 7%. Shortly thereafter, the discount surpassed 8% though CEF did not make a low in price. That was the highest discount to NAV in 12 years! The current discount is 5%.
Assets in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund have evaporated from $370M to $58M. I don’t have the history handy but I believe this is near a ten year low. Even more striking is the decline in assets as a percentage of all sectors. That is down to 4.7% which is well below the 2008-2012 lows.
Sticking with precious metals stocks we see that short interest is very high in GDX. This isn’t necessarily bullish. The shorts have been correct for more than a year. However, short interest surged in November and December and the stocks failed to make new lows in December. If short interest remains high in January and the market continues to firm then its bullish. (Source: Schaeffers Research).
Just like history, sentiment does not pick or ensure a bottom. The best recipe is to wait for a combination of extreme negative sentiment and very strong technical support. We were hoping the precious metals complex would plunge further to that very strong technical support noted in recent editorials. It could still happen. However, we have to listen to the market and its price action. The gold and silver stocks failed to make new lows in December. Last week Gold and Silver tried to make new lows and failed.
If precious metals fail to make new lows when sentiment indicators are at decade extremes then how could they make new lows in the near future? There are some speculative longs in the market (11% of open interest) who could drive it lower temporarily if metals don’t rally soon. As we’ve said, any selloff is likely to be final and would produce a strong rebound. If that doesn’t happen then the market could continue a slow, grinding saucer type of bottom. The longer this drags out then the more likely that is. The age and depth of this bear, extreme negative sentiment, lack of new lows and recent relative strength in the shares lead us to err on the bullish side. If you’d be interested in learning about the companies poised to rocket out of this bottom then we invite you to learn more about our service.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Yesterday, with the wind chill, a stinging -16 degrees Fahrenheit terrorized Baltimore’s morning commuters.
At least those who bothered to leave the house, anyway.
As for me, I layered up, gave my Prius a few minutes to warm up, and ventured downtown, where the common sight of intersection panhandlers was unsurprisingly absent.
On the radio, a press release issued by PJM Interconnection was recited. The morning reporter asked those in the listening area to conserve electricity, as a power outage in this kind of weather could result in deadly consequences. Especially for the elderly.
Of course, I doubt many folks even heard the announcement. And of those who did, few would actually heed the warning.
I’m not particularly worried though. I’ve done enough research on this stuff to know that it would take an enormous amount of pressure from consumers to put enough strain on the grid to knock it down. And the truth is, even if it does get dicey, the gatekeepers will simply lower the voltage in order to keep things humming.
Still, basic conservation efforts — like turning off the lights in unoccupied rooms or running the dishwasher during non-peak hours — probably aren’t going to break anyone. In fact, if done regularly, they can actually save you a few bucks.
But I’m not writing you today to talk about common sense measures to save money. Instead, I want to talk to you about how a growing trend of more extreme temperatures is exposing us not only to the elements, but to new opportunities to make a lot of money as well.
Long-Term Crisis = Long-Term Profits
Over the past few years, we’ve had the opportunity to make a lot of money in sectors that have been impacted by extreme weather events.
Capitalizing on high oil prices following destructive hurricanes has been especially fruitful. But with this cold weather comes another, more long-term opportunity.
You see, temperatures fluctuate all the time. And with those fluctuations come fluctuations in price. This is great for trading, but if you’re looking for a more stable play on extreme temperatures that’ll take you over the long haul, there’s a better place to look.
Check this out…
A $2 Trillion Opportunity
Last month, I told you about a conversation I had with an engineer named Tom Gilly.
When asked about Baltimore’s water infrastructure, he said the following…
“There’s still some old wood pipes down there. That means they’re more than a hundred years old. And the rest of ’em are so busted up, I don’t know how they’re gonna fix all of ’em. 80 percent of these things are being held together by decades of grime and a whole lotta faith in the skills of our grandparents.”
After a handful of serious floods last summer, followed up by below-zero temperatures this week, the water infrastructure sector is very, very busy. And it’s only going to get worse (or better, depending upon which side of this crisis you’re on).
You see, last year, the American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE) released its 2013 report card for America’s water infrastructure. It got a D!
According to the ASCE, much of our drinking water infrastructure today is nearing the end of its life. There are an estimated 240,000 water main breaks every year in the U.S. Assuming every pipe would need to be replaced, the cost in the coming decades could reach more than $2 trillion.
My friends, on top of century-old infrastructure, throw in a growing trend of extreme temperatures and catastrophic floods, and you’ve got the recipe for both a major crisis and a major opportunity.
And while we can’t personally control the crisis, we can capitalize on the opportunity by picking up a few quality water infrastructure plays.
Here are some of the leading water infrastructure stocks I like:
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Watts Water Technologies (NYSE: WTS)
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Northwest Pipe Co. (NASDAQ: NWPX)
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Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA)
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Flowserve Corp. (NYSE: FLS)
I’m not saying to go out and buy every water infrastructure stock out there. But at least put these four on your watch lists. Because make no mistake about it — much of the water infrastructure in this country is crumbling. And as investors, we’d be fools to ignore this reality.
To a new way of life and a new generation of wealth…
Jeff Siegel
Mike Maloney takes you to Egypt to unravel the difference between currency and money. This is one of the most important lessons you will ever learn, and will pave the way for your understanding of future episodes. Because without knowing exactly what money is…how on earth can we expect to learn about it?
How has your Paper Currency performed versus Silver and Gold in the 21st Century?
You may be surprised by the answers below.
Below you will find 120 fiat currency’s nominal values versus silver and gold prices thus far in the 21st Century.
Not one paper currency has outperformed bullion thus far, see for yourself…
D
SILVER
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