Gold & Precious Metals

Digging Deep to Find the Right Mining Stock

I hope you’re enjoying your holiday! It’s always nice to have a long weekend to spend with family and friends, to honor those who defended our country, and to get some distance from the things that are most pressing on our minds.

Which brings me to my topic for this week, none other than one of the most profitable investments one can make going forward, mining shares!

As I’ve mentioned in the past, mining shares will soon be a major buy, but importantly, not all mining shares.

The reasons are simple but far too often overlooked by investors.

First, there are dozens of mining shares that have been beaten up by the three-year bear market in precious metals.

They took on mountains of debt when gold was trading at the $1,800 to $1,900 level three years ago, thinking gold was headed to the moon. And now they are paying the price.

For instance, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), the world’s largest gold mining company, has $1.5 billion of debt maturing next year. It’s issuing new equity to investors to help pay off that debt, thus diluting shareholder equity.

In addition, it’s looking to merge with giant Newmont Mining (NEM) to also help out its debt malaise by reaching economies of scale via merging with another giant.

image130Newmont is a top-notch miner, but if it merges with Barrick, which I expect it will, then Newmont will lose its independence and get saddled down with Barrick’s problems.

In years past, I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend Newmont. Now, I’m not so sure.

Or take Oz Minerals, a beloved miner during gold’s first phase of its bull market, a stock that catapulted from $0.53 a share in August 2004 to a high of $15.59 in July 2011 …

Yet the company is now facing no less than three shareholder lawsuits due to $340 million of debt the company took on starting in 2008.

Its share price today: In the mid-$3 range, having lost 77 percent of its value since its 2011 high.

Will it thrive again? Hard to say. The company has taken the right steps recently, writing off non-performing assets and working hard to relieve its debt load and to increase operating efficiencies.

I may or may not recommend it going forward. It will all depend not upon the company’s properties and reserves and resources, but how management handles the various issues it now finds itself struggling with.                                                                                    All the gold ever mined could fit into a 60-foot cube.                                                                                         

My point is this: In 2000, when gold bottomed at $255 an ounce, buying mining companies was like shooting fish in barrel.

Today, it’s entirely different. You must do your homework before buying any mining shares. Period.

Second, many mining companies are now hedging, or considering hedging, their precious metals reserves.

London-listed Hochschild Mining Plc and Canadian miner Detour Gold, for example, announced this year they would open new hedges, mostly to help finance new projects and pay off debt.

Russia’s biggest gold miner, Polyus Gold, is also looking at hedging. As is Barrick Gold and many others.

That would be fine if gold or silver were to stay in bear markets. But they are not. And I want my followers to be rewarded as the price of gold and silver rise again. Hedging robs them of that.

Third is the quality of the properties and the ore the miner has. All over the world, gold is reaching peak production. In 1995, for instance, 22 gold deposits were found that contained more than 2 million ounces each.

In 2010, there were only six such discoveries. In 2011, only one. And since then, for 2012, 2013 and thus far for 2014, not one single 2-million ounce deposit has been found.

Consider Nevada, home to almost three-quarters of U.S. gold production. Gold production in Nevada has plunged fully one-third since 1998.

There’s simply a lot less gold to mine. All the gold ever mined could fit into a 60-foot cube.

In the earth’s crust, gold today is found in roughly 0.005 parts per million, minuscule when compared with copper at 50 parts per million, or iron at 50,000 parts per million.

Overall, ore grades have plunged more than 35 percent since 2001 …

Meanwhile, production costs per ounce of gold have soared from $200 an ounce in 2000 to over $1,100 today.

Shooting fish in a barrel this time around, as gold and silver begin new bull markets higher? Hardly!

This time around, you will have to be very selective, constantly monitoring company developments, management decisions, and more.

Is there money to be made? You bet. Tons of it. So much so, that I see a select handful of miners that I am now monitoring soaring as much as 3,000 percent over the next few years. Enough to turn a $10,000 investment into as much as $320,000.

And then there are the large swings that will inevitably occur. Catch a few of those, grabbing gains on rallies and buying back in on pullbacks, and you could do even better.

So stay tuned, the time to start buying and trading mining shares will soon be here.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. Use my 4-part Freedom Plan to reclaim your privacy, protect your money, GROW your wealth and build American Revolution 2.0.

Posted by Larry Edelson

 

ABOUT LARRY EDELSON

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/.

 

 

 

The Universe According To Wall Street Daily

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Perusing the Preferred Stock ETFs 
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About Robert Williams

Founder and Publisher

In addition to once being a full-time trader of equities and equity derivatives, Robert has also served as the lead financial analyst for a Forbes top-50 private corporation and an analyst for the endowment of a major academic institution. 

Robert has been profiled in such books as Trade with Passion and Purpose and Alexander Green’s The Secret of Shelter Island. He’s also featured in Karim Rahemtulla’s bestselling book, Where in the World Should I Invest? 

Robert is regarded as an authority in corporate finance, specifically in gauging the investment health of companies.

Precious Metals Plunge & 2 Silver Charts for You

Saturday we published TDG #363, a 30-page update. This update included among other things brief reports on three companies we’d consider potential non-core positions. These are three stocks which could rebound substantially from lower prices. We also discussed downside targets for GDX, GDXJ, Gold, Silver, etc and buy targets for various companies.   

I have two charts from the update here. The first is the gross short positions in Silver, which in nominal terms reached nearly 60K contracts, an all-time high. Relative to open interest the gross shorts are not yet at an all-time high.  

may31silvergs

We carefully constructed this next chart with 23 years of data. We only took data from years Silver was in a secular bull market. We excluded 1980 as Silver peaked in January and the parabolic rise and crash could skew the results. 

Look how strong the seasonality is. Even though Silver is in a secular bull market it essentially makes no progress for half the year (March through August). The time to buy is obviously the start of July.  

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We are very keen on Silver bottoming before Gold. When could it bottom? At what price? We discussed our thoughts in the premium update.  

Last week we wrote: We’ve been prepared for downside with hedges and cash and now we are thinking that the miners could break towards their December lows. Of course we’ve thought so for the last few weeks so time will tell. In any event we are waiting for that buying opportunity. Patience is now the key over the coming weeks.

The model portfolio has held up very well during this selloff. It closed the week up nearly 1% and was up about 2% after Wednesday. You live and you learn from your mistakes….or you blame manipulation and you don’t. We’ve endured two nasty bears in the last six years. It’s because of that experience that we’ve hedged ourselves well in recent months.   

 

—-

As we’ve noted in recent weeks, we’ve made some changes to our premium service that I’m very excited about. I think the quality of our premium service is higher and with subscribers able to follow our trades (knowing our plans in advance) in the new portfolio, I expect our and their performance to be better. Click below to learn more about our service and watch the new video for details.

Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity in 2014. 

-Jordan

Disclaimer: Sponsor Companies are paid sponsor companies of TheDailyGold.com website and this free newsletter. Do not construe sponsorship with a recommendation. The author of this newsletter is not a registered investment advisor. This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and due your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein. 

Argonaut Gold Corvus Gold
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*For a larger view, more commentary & charts click on the chart or go HERE

#2 Most Viewed Article: Is It Time to Hide Your Money Under the Mattress?

“I don’t know what to do,” said my good friend Rob after inviting my wife Jo and me to dinner for the third time in two weeks. “I know I should do something. Every time I think about it, it scares the hell out of me! Maybe I should just hide everything under the mattress.”

Rob is a sharp guy—he’s done well for himself and his family. He also recently settled the last details of his parents’ estate. Upon banking part of his inheritance, the branch manager magically appeared, introduced himself, and invited Rob into his office to discuss “some really good rates” the bank had to offer.

Not even the drive-through window has helped Rob fly under the radar. It still takes but a few seconds before the manager appears and starts his pitch. Rob has started to wonder if the drive-through tellers have a bright yellow “sic ‘em” button.

Rob is a veteran subscriber to Miller’s Money Forever. He reads our material faithfully and isn’t shy about asking questions. He knew for two years this large influx of cash was coming, and he’s made it a point to learn how to handle it.

Up to that point, Rob’s wealth consisted of home equity, retirement plans managed by others, and some collectibles. Now he has a sizable chunk of cash to invest, and he’s understandably scared.

So far, Rob has lots of book learning under his belt, but little real-life investing experience. Every option we discussed at that third dinner evoked a “Yes… but!” After much back and forth, I finally realized Rob’s Achilles heel wasn’t a lack of investment knowledge. Instead, it was his fear.

And Rob is not alone. The following morning, I received a timely message from subscriber and regular correspondent, Bee H. She shared a laundry list of places to put your money—banks, real estate, precious metals, annuities, a mattress—and all the horrible ends that money could meet in those places. Government seizure, market crashes, eminent domain, theft, inflation… the list went on.

Bee’s concerns are not unfounded. I even shared them with Rob under the heading: “See, you aren’t alone.”

Rob’s response: “Wow. She’s reading my mail! I’m stewing over this very same issue…”

Then it hit me hard: What are they afraid of? Not the market and investing, but rather the adverse consequences of government behavior. After nearly every “Yes, but,” Rob expressed fear about what the government might do: a haircut, bailout, bail-in, outright confiscation. Call it what you will.

These fears cross partisan lines. We all have some sense—even if we can’t quite put our finger on it—that our personal and economic liberties are threatened. Heck, every time I look in the sky now, I scan for NSA drones. If I see a tiny speck, I look at the television camera, wave my hand, and say, “Hi, Mom!”

Many of my friends—Independents, Libertarians, Republicans, Democrats, even a Green Party member or two—have told me, “For the first time in my life, I’m afraid of our government.”

money-banking-safes-saving-interest rates-safe-money-hkhn140l.jpgCommonsense Alternatives to Your Mattress

If you’ve been reading my articles for any length of time, you know I worship at the altar of practical wisdom. So, my response to Rob and Bee came from that same place.

  • Maintain perspective. You can’t get rid of these political risks entirely (although a little international diversification will help). Vote for the candidates you think are least likely to make things worse and move on.

    Learn the rules, pay your taxes, and fill out the proper forms. You don’t have to like it, but the punishments for noncompliance can be harsh. Behaving yourself is the best route.

    Plan and execute a retirement approach that will be successful despite foolhardy government action. This is more challenging than it was for our parents’ generation, but it is within your reach.

  • Pay off debt. Rob told his accountant he was going to pay off his house with part of his inheritance. His accountant replied, “No! That’s a terrible plan. Invest the money! You can earn better returns than the interest rate on your mortgage.”

    Are you kidding me? Rob’s a rookie investor who’s scared to death, and his accountant is telling him to go into the market with borrowed money? Hell, that guy might as well have shown him how to buy on margin while he was at it! Rob held his ground, saying, “I plan to get out of debt and stay that way.”

  • Keep saving. Once you’re out of debt, start making those debt service payments to yourself each month, first. Then live on the rest. Concerns about government confiscation or higher taxes should motivate you to save even more. If the worst comes, you want to have enough left over so you and your family survive.
     
  • Get a financial checkup. Find a good financial planner, preferably one with a fiduciary responsibility to you (not all have that). Mark your goals, set a realistic plan, and check in annually.
     
  • Never turn over all of your money to a money manager. Some money? Sure. But ultimately, the only way to protect your money is to learn how to invest it yourself.

    The first time you click your mouse to make a real trade, your heart will be racing. It’s an emotional experience, but each trade—good or bad—teaches you something and brings more confidence.

  • Understand the motivations of brokerage firms, insurance agents, and banks. Rob experienced this in action. The branch manager offered him a “special rate” on a CD that wouldn’t even keep up with inflation.

    Brokers and captive houses will gladly do a free financial checkup and encourage you to put your money in their company-sponsored funds. The same is true of insurance companies. While there may be better options, they push for what compensates them the best. Caveat emptor!

    A money manager with a fiduciary responsibility must put your interests ahead of theirs. You want advice from people who are not stakeholders.

    Always ask, “Are there better options available?”

  • Learn the lessons pundits cannot always teach. When you make an asset purchase, write down why. What is your stop loss, and what are your earnings targets? When you sell, investigate what made you successful or what happened that caused you to lose money.

    You’ll take some losses. Just don’t panic! They don’t have to be expensive learning experiences. As a wise old baseball coach once said, “Make your outs count!”

  • Doing nothing is a choice. It’s an expensive one at that, as your cash loses its buying power to inflation. Invest to protect, invest for income, invest for growth.
     
  • Take a giant leap of faith… in yourself. Trust your ability to learn, assess a situation, control your emotions, and exercise sound judgment. You’ve already honed those skills in other areas of life; now it’s time to apply them to investing.
  • Throughout history governments have taxed, spent other people’s money, and made stupid rules. People have succeeded anyway, and you can be among them. Our free weekly newsletter, Miller’s Money Weekly, can help guide you through the traps and pitfalls of personal finance and help you navigate toward a retirement on your own terms.Sign up now, for free.

     

     

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