Asset protection

Greece Contagion Risk

Source: Bloomberg.  Today, April 17, 2015.  Hat tip to Erwan Mahe, my articulate and observant friend in Paris who emailed me a note this morning..
 
“Central banks in southeastern European countries, in cooperation with ECB’s SSM, have told banking subsidiaries of Greek lenders in their countries to exit all exposure to Greek state bonds and treasury bills, Kathimerini newspaper reports today, without saying how it got the information.”  Credit to Paul Tugwell, the Bloomberg reporter attributed to this story.  This story was filed at about 4 AM, US east coast time .More details are: Exposure exit order also includes deposits in parent Greek banks, loans to Greece-based lenders; Move to protect national banking systems in event of “a Greek accident” and any possible contagion if Greece’s talks with euro-area partners don’t lead to positive result; Order made by central banks of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey; Greek banks have large market share in Bulgaria, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic and Romania.
 
This is why the market is turning red this morning.  Contagion is an unknown.  The issue is not about the IMF; it is about banking systems melting down.  The most important item to watch is the provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the European Central Bank (ECB).  That is the only source of funds to keep Greece alive while the political negotiations continue.  Additional ELA requires approvals from the ECB.  Germany is the largest weight in the ECB according to its capital structure.  France is next, etc.  
 
We are watching drama with high intensity.  We are also, avoiding the direct exposures but maintaining the currency hedged European stock market exposure.  These events mean a certainty that the ECB will continue its policy of negative interest rates for the next year and half.  These events virtually assure that outcome.   Meanwhile, the inflation statistics from Europe suggest that inflation is falling.
 
More will be revealed as the weekend progresses.
 
David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
 
Resources:
To sign-up for Market Commentaries from Cumberland Advisors: http://www.cumber.com/signup.aspx 
For Cumberland Advisors Investment Portfolio Styles: http://www.cumber.com/styles.aspx?file=styles_index.asp 
For personal correspondence: david.kotok@cumber.com
Twitter: @CumberlandADV

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital 

Canadian Miners STRIKE IT RICH!

Posted by Pierce Points

on Friday, 17 April 2015 13:39

imagesNew $1 Billion Funding Source For Mining Projects

Finding project funds is becoming a bigger and bigger issue in the resource space. But developers in the mining sector just got some good news on an innovative new source of capital.

That’s the Capital Mines Hydrocarbures fund. A C$1 billion purse being put forward by the government of one of the world’s top mining jurisdictions—the Canadian province of Quebec.

Quebec’s Economy Minister said last week that the fund is now close to being ready to launch. With C$200 million already put aside—and another C$800 million in follow-on funding being prepared.

 

The fund will reportedly invest directly in projects within the province. No details have been given yet on what sort of specs the government will be looking for.

Preliminary indications however, are that managers here will look to deploy larger investments into a few different vehicles. With the Minister saying that the fund has “many things in the pipeline” and may be able to support as many as ten projects.

Such direct investments from the government are obviously a novel strategy in the resource space. But in Quebec’s case, buying into resource projects may turn out to be a sound move.

That’s because some of the most important development projects in the minerals space have come within the province the last few years.

The Eleonore gold mine, for example, was commissioned by Goldcorp last year—and represents one of the few projects to go from grassroots discovery all the way to functioning mine during the current resource cycle.

All of which has proven Quebec to be an attractive destination for exploration and development. A reality that will be further enhanced by financial support coming from the new fund.

Add that to existing benefits in the province such as tax-friendly “super flow-through” rules for mining investors, and it appears that Quebec is a place all minerals developers should have on their radar screen.

Watch for specific investments deployed by the fund over the coming months to see if your project might qualify for this unique finance source.

Here’s to putting up the money,

Dave Forest

dforest@piercepoints.com / @piercepoints / Facebook

Shocking CDN Real Estate Chart Shows Sales Exhaustion

Posted by Brian Flores - Guru Focus

on Friday, 17 April 2015 13:19

Screen Shot 2015-04-17 at 7.17.35 AM

As the chart above shows that overall Trans-Canada Single Family Housing Sales are exhausted. Amazingly within that sales exhaustion are continuing potent Bull Markets in Toronto and Vancouver.

In the interview below Brian Ripley is questioned about the 2 charts showing how SFD properties in the hot markets are defying the national residential real estate sales slowdown as well as the ballooning strata inventory levels in both listings for sale and properties for rent.

 

Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 16 April 2015 21:39

STOCKS: It looked like we would have more of a down session and then some Fed officials came on the wire sounding  more dovish about  interest rates. That turned it around, but not enough to go positive.         

GOLD: Gold dropped $2. There was no reason given. Some days there isn’t one.

Todd Market Forecast for  Thursday  April 16, 2015 

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                                  – 7 on 450 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                   – 3 on 200 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                          Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              Bullish

CHART: We’re a bit concerned by the chart below. First, the S&P 500 is overbought as measured by 5 Day RSI (arrows). Second, the index is at the level that turned the last rally back in mid March. Let’s keep a close watch.

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy from Feb. 20, 2015. We are long the SPY from 206.43.

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.

We’re on a buy for bonds as of March 18.                  

We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the euro as of March 30.                    

We’re on a sell for gold as of April 14.                      

We’re on a sell for silver as of March 30.                      

We’re on a buy for crude oil as of March 23.                          

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of March 16.   

We’re on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Fund as of October 30.

To subscribe to Stephen Todd’s Daily Newsletter go HERE

The Greatest Inventions of All Time

Posted by Visual Graphics

on Thursday, 16 April 2015 18:13

Make sure to click the images below to expand to view the full, massive version of this visualization, which shows the greatest inventions throughout history.

Have you ever wondered about past inventions and their impact on our society today? 

Raconteur was also interested, so they polled over 400 scientists, academics, and tech journalists to find out which inventions have been the most revolutionary.

The top six inventions, as voted by this group, include the internet, the printing press, and the wheel. See below for descriptions on all six:

top-6-inventions

 

 

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