Bonds & Interest Rates
Deficits, levels of debt, and demographics are deeply interrelated. Demographics have a major impact on GDP growth as well as on investment returns. The long-term headwind that can be expected in the 21st century compared with the demographic dividend, or tailwind, of the 20th century has serious implications for bond investing. But there are still investment opportunities that can be found today.
Greece at June 24, 2015 6:53 a.m. ET
Uncertainty sparked an outflow of deposits from its banks that reached about €1 billion per day late last week before slowing Monday.
Key points of disagreement are corporate taxation, the overhaul of Greece’s pension system and value-added taxes. For instance, Greece had planned to increase corporate taxes to 29%, but in the document creditors limited the increase to 28%.
That may cause new budget shortfalls that need to be plugged with other measures.
….Updated June 24, 2015 6:53 a.m. ET, read more of the Wall Street Journal article HERE
Stocks Peak in 2000
The chart below shows the 2000 peaking process in the NASDAQ. The index made a lower high, a lower low, and then dropped below the 50-day moving average shown in blue.

Stocks Peak In 2007
The chart below shows the 2007 peaking process in the NASDAQ. The index made a lower high, a lower low, and then dropped below the 50-day moving average shown in blue.

How does the same chart look today?
The NASDAQ recently made a higher high, which for now negates the possibility of a lower high and lower low. The index is still above the 50-day moving average and the slope of the 50-day is positive (bullish).

Taking It Day By Day
Could the major indexes begin to fade in 2015? Sure they could, but under our approach, there is no need to anticipate, forecast, or guess. At some point, stocks will experience a correction, but it all must start with a lower high, something we do not have on the 2015 chart of the NASDAQ.
New Highs In 2015 vs. Lower Lows In 2007
On Twitter, we have recently shown new highs in small caps, consumer discretionary, and healthcare. This week’s video showed lower highs that were made in small caps, consumer discretionary, and healthcare in late 2007 before the ugly returns of 2008.
New Highs Speak To Probabilities
Are lower highs and lower lows always a big deal? Not necessarily, since they happen frequently. The point is a lower high and lower low is one of the easiest bearish thresholds to cross. Said another way, not too many bad things can happen if you can avoid lower highs and lower lows by making new highs.

Of course, this has huge implications for every part of the Internet food chain.
- Social media connectors: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn
- Content providers: Yahoo, Netflix, Google
- Smartphone manufacturers: Apple, Samsung
- E-tailers: Priceline, eBay, Amazon
- Infrastructure: Cisco, Juniper Networks
And don’t forget about the Chinese Internet giants either, like Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY), Baidu, Inc. (BIDU), Rakuten, Inc. (RKUNY), NetEase, Inc. (NTES), Sina Corporation (SINA), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), Weibo Corporation (WB), Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP), and Sohu.com, Inc. (SOHU).
Prediction: I bet the above Chinese stocks will deliver TWICE the gains you can make on the above-listed American Internet kings.
….read entire article HERE



