Stocks & Equities

| Wed. | Thu. | Fri. | Mon. | Tue. | Wed. | Evaluation | |
| Monetary conditions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 day RSI S&P 500 | 54 | 71 | 75 | 75 | 64 | 54 | 0 |
| 5 day RSI NASDAQ | 51 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 65 | 45 | 0 |
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McCl-
lAN OSC.
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+89 | +169 | +167 | +129 | +142 | +60 |
0
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| Composite Gauge | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 15 | + |
| Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. | 10.6 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 0 |
| CBOE Put Call Ratio | .96 | 1.10 | .85 | .89 | 1.00 | .96 |
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| VIX | 18.03 | 16.35 | 15.05 | 14.98 | 15.75 | 16.59 | 0 |
| VIX % change | +2 | -9 | -6 | 0 | +5 | +5 | + |
| VIX % change 5 day m.a. | -0.2 | -1.0 | -1.8 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. | -655 | -68 | +597 | +710 | +316 | -262 | 0 |
| Supply Demand 5 day m.a. | .48 | .54 | .61 | .63 | .68 | .66 | 0 |
| Trading Index (TRIN) | .78 | .94 | 1.19 | 1.26 | 1.14 | 1.46 |
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S&P 500
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1994 | 2024 | 2033 | 2034 | 2031 | 2019 | Plurality +3 |
“The story of 2016 will be the emerging negative interest rate world and its many, many unintended consequences.”
Not so long ago, a bank was by definition a business that took deposits from customers, paid them for the use of their money, and lent the cash to other customers at a profit. But that’s not how it works anymore:
Big banks to big American companies: We don’t want your cash
(MarketWatch) – State Street Corp., the Boston bank that manages assets for institutional investors, for the first time has begun charging some customers for large dollar deposits,people familiar with the matter said. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the nation’s largest bank by assets, has cut unwanted deposits by more than $150 billion this year, in part by charging fees.
The developments underscore a deepening conflict over cash. Many businesses have large sums on hand and opportunities to profitably invest it appear scarce. But banks don’t want certain kinds of cash either, judging it costly to keep, and some are imposing fees after jawboning customers to move it.
The banks’ actions are driven by profit-crunching low interest rates and regulations adopted since the financial crisis to gird banks against funding disruptions.
The latest fees center on large sums deemed risky by regulators, sometimes dubbed hot-money deposits thought likely to flee during times of crises. Finalized last September and overseen by the Federal Reserve and other regulators, the rule involving the liquidity coverage ratio forces banks to hold high-quality liquid assets, such as central bank reserves and government debt, to cover projected deposit losses over 30 days. Banks must hold reserves of as much as 40% against certain corporate deposits and as much as 100% against some deposits from hedge funds.
“At some point you wonder whether there will be a shortage of financial institutions willing to take on these balances,” said Kelli Moll, head of Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP’s hedge-fund practice in New York, saying that where to hold cash has become an increasing topic of conversation as hedge funds are shown the door by long-time banking counterparties.
This comes at a time when corporations are raising record amounts of cash by issuing bonds:
Corporate bond issuance tops $1 trillion in U.S.
(MarketWatch) – Corporate bond issuance in the U.S. reached $1.04 trillion through Thursday, the highest level through that period of a year on record, according to Dealogic. It marks the second time U.S.-marketed corporate bond issuance has crossed $1 trillion in the first nine months of the year, the first coming in 2013.
Strong investment-grade activity, acquisition-related bond issuance and jumbo deals have all contributed to the record volume.
The average deal size for U.S.-marketed corporate bond deals so far this year has reached $992.5 million through Thursday, according to Dealogic, the fifth consecutive year-on-year increase. That size compares to a global average deal size of $412.12 million year to date.
The volume of U.S.-marketed deals of $10 billion or more has more than doubled to $164 billion from the previous high for same period in 2013.
Negative interest rates can take many forms, including higher fees that lower or negate the interest a bank pays for deposits, or limitations on what customers can do with deposited funds that lower the real value of those funds. So banks charging fees on deposits are functionally the same as banks offering negative rates to customers.
With the global economy slowing dramatically, led by plunging corporate profits, US interest rates will have to fall in 2016. And cash will have to be marginalized or made obsolete in order to get rates down to where they have a stimulative effect.
So the story of 2016 will be the emerging negative interest rate world and its many, many unintended consequences.
About John Rubino
DollarCollapse.com is managed by John Rubino, co-author, with GoldMoney’s James Turk, of The Money Bubble (DollarCollapse Press, 2014) and The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It (Doubleday, 2007), and author of Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom (Wiley, 2008), How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust (Rodale, 2003) and Main Street, Not Wall Street (Morrow, 1998). After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980s on Wall Street, as a Eurodollar trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst. During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with TheStreet.com and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor, Online Investor, and Consumers Digest, among many other publications. He currently writes for CFA Magazine.
The man who forecast $5,000+ gold prices for 2016 back in 2009 (click here), and whose cycle model predicts a big disruption in global financial markets at the close of this month, has spoken out against the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold last week..
The US Dollar Index hit a low in 1995, a high in 2002, a low in 2008, and a recent high in 2015. Examine the following 20 year chart of the dollar.
Note that the vertical blue lines are 79 months apart and show approximate low, high, low, and high cycle extremes. I have noted the dates for the weekly low and high closes near the green and red circles.
Now look at a similar chart of the S&P from a month ago.
Dollar lows (May 95 and Mar 08) were separated by about a year from S&P lows (June 94 and March 09), and dollar highs (Feb. 02 and Mar 15) occurred near S&P highs (Aug 02 and May 15).
What else?
- The last dollar high (February 2002) was followed by about 6 years of declining dollar prices until it hit a cycle bottom in 2008.
- The S&P had already begun a decline of over 50% by the last dollar top in 2002.
- The S&P looks like it has currently begun a decline from its May 2015 top that is consistent with the dollar peak in March 2015. More QE or not, look out below!
- If that 6.5 year dollar high-low cycle continues, it suggests a dollar low in 2021. The world will be quite different after six years of dollar decline against other currencies and gold.
- Gold and silver prices will benefit from a multi-year dollar decline and a substantial correction in the S&P.
Geopolitical Fundamentals:
While Russia is bombing ISIS in Syria and consolidating their influence in the middle-east, the US bombed a hospital in Afghanistan and changed the “spin” on the story at least four times. This could be symbolic of a decline in US leadership and political influence in the middle-east and the beginning of a long-term decline in the US dollar.
China has initiated a global alternative to the SWIFT system – the China International Payments System (CIPS). This will weaken US global financial control and weaken the US dollar influence on global trade and other economies.
US official national debt exceeds $18 Trillion and unfunded liabilities are perhaps $100 – $220 Trillion. This is a problem – truly an understatement. However, we are now in the “silly season” when we elect a new president, so publicly speaking about honest accounting, a reasonable tax law, balanced budgets, and sane financial policies has been banned at least until 2017. Uncontrolled spending, massive and ever-increasing debt, unaddressed structural problems, and lack of political leadership also suggest a continued decline in the dollar.
Support for the US dollar has been based on the “petrodollar” – required purchases of crude oil with dollars – and the US military – accept US Treasury debt in exchange for your goods and oil or face consequences. Both of these supports for the dollar are clearly weakening, and that indicates additional dollar decline, or collapse, in the years ahead.
BOTTOM LINE:
- Expect continued US dollar weakness for several years.
- Expect stock and bond markets to “regress to the mean” – substantially lower.
- Expect gold and silver prices to benefit from dollar weakness and US geopolitical difficulties. $5,000 gold will not happen this year but it is quite possible by the election in 2020. Much higher prices are likely if central banks and governments choose to push the US into a hyperinflationary collapse.
- And finally, buy gold and silver while supplies at these repressed prices (thank you TBTF banks) are still available.
Read:
Investment Research Dynamics Scandal in Paper Gold/Silver
Goldman Sachs Welcome to the 3rd Wave
Bill Holter What Will Happen To Silver and Gold
Gary Christenson
The Deviant Investor
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2015

Stock Markets
Our September 29th Pivot noted that “Seasonality could bottom some two to four weeks from now. Momentum has further to go.”
Last week we noted that the prospect for an intermediate low following the break below the 50-Week ma counted out to around November.
Is the low for the S&P of late September the key intermediate low?
The decline into Black Monday, August 24th was global and severe. Particularly for Shanghai. We had the close on the S&P on that day as the target for the test. In between, the CCI could have reached 100 on the rebound ().
The next low was tied to the panic about Glencore, which some compared to Lehman in 2008. As exciting as it was, it was more like Bear Stearns in June 2007. The first “discovery” on that contraction. Lehman in 2008 was the killer discovery.
However, the Glencore collapse suddenly reversed to a brutal short squeeze. A chart follows that shows that the US intervention through REPOS was massively greater than in 2008. Rebounds are natural, the latest had extraordinary assistance. 1
And now the bounce in the S&P has generated an Inverse Springboard, which is a “sell” in a declining market. Opposite to the Springboard of October a year ago.
Banks (BKX) set a false breakout in July and have been poor performers since. The high was 80.87 and the Black Monday low was 67.80. The rebound made it to 73.39; nowhere near the 200-Day. The low on October 2nd was 67.60 and the short squeeze made it to only 71.84.
At 70.25 now, taking out the 68 level is likely and would be a serious failure.
Credit Markets
Credit spreads widened into October 2nd with the Glencore setback. Some relief was possible. The huge and sudden REPO operation squeezed virtually everything in the universe. The High-Yield (PHDCX) rallied from 8.60 to 8.85 on Tuesday. The declining 50-Day ma stopped it for the fourth time since the key reversal in June. Spreads have done much the same.
Lower-grade bond prices and credit spreads seem poised for another setback.
On the Fred BBB chart, widening through the last “wide” at 242 bps could be similar to the key one in December 2007. It traded for a week at 232 bps. Yesterday it up-ticked to 234 bps.
On that breakout in spreads, the S&P took out the initial decline into November. The first leg of the bear ended at 1256 in March 2008.
Long Treasuries (TLT) held support at the 122.50 level, which was at the 50-Day ma. A couple of days of stock-market correction and TLT is up to 124, comfortably above the 200-Day as well.
The last high was 126 and that becomes our target.
1 Interventionist economics is so isolated from reality that it still believes that financial history is episodic. In so many words driven by news events. A big push will change the major trend. The problem is that financial history is periodic and important trend changes overwhelm arbitrary notions about “managing” a national economy.
Bankrupt theories, bankrupt countries and now bankrupt central banks.
Commodities
As noted last week, the commodity rally out of August 24th was a natural, helped by seasonal strength for copper and crude likely into September.
Copper rallied from 2.21 to 2.49 in the middle of September. The next rally made it to only 2.44 on Monday. A seasonal low in November has been possible and taking out the October 2nd low of 2.24 would mark the decline.
Crude oil fared better. The August low was 37.75 and the high was 50.92 on Monday. The swing on the Daily RSI from very oversold has been rather good. Likely enough to limit the move. The high on the December contract was 51.5 on Friday and today’s low was 46.
A seasonal low late in the year has been possible.
Lumber sold off from 302 in June to 214 at the end of September. The rebound made it to 262 today. The swing from Daily oversold to overbought is impressive and the September low needs testing. Probably by year-end.
Grains (GKX) have done relatively well. The low was 273 in early September and the high was 300 two weeks ago. This was at the 200-Day and the next rally is attempting to get above the moving average which is declining.
Currencies
Until two weeks ago, the DX was trading between the 50 and 200-Day averages. Last week, it broke down from 96 to 93.88 now.
The intra-day low on August 24th was 92.52. This is our target.
The Canadian dollar traded close to 75 from late August. The last low was 74.31 in late September and now it is at 77.8.
Precious Metals
The September 17th ChartWorks Gold Sentiment had a target in the 1145 to 1185 level. Yesterday’s and today’s high reached 1190.
From the 1100 low in September this has been a good move. From the 1072 in July it has been an outstanding rally. The Daily RSI has swung from very oversold at 18 on the Daily RSI to almost 70.
It is an impressive swing and most of the gain for this move has been accomplished. Gold is registering an Inverse Springboard that could become effective within a week or so.
Since the bear started in 2011 each rally from very oversold has been sharp and all too brief. The last example for gold stocks popped out of last December and got overbought in January. We left the play on the rally into May.
Thus our advice over the past few months was for stability, first.
This would show up as the GDX began to outperform the bullion price. Our September 29th Pivot noted that GDX/GLD index rising above the 50-Day would be constructive. That was accomplished on October 2nd at 130 and the rally has continued to 150.
GDX has rallied from the base at 13 established from early August to the last low at 13.19 at the end of September. At 17 now, gold stocks have accomplished a big momentum swing.
A correction for the sector has been earned.
The base that is building will likely be the end of the bear that started in 2011. It is setting up a cyclical bull market whereby the precious metals become a premier sector.
Changing Credit Markets

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The change started in June 2014.
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It is cyclical.
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It is not over.
Massive Intervention

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The intervention was imposed over two weeks in September.
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Some think that within the overall collapse, Glencore was the focus problem.
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Was a “Lehman Event” prevented or deferred?
Credit Spreads and Recessions

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By this measure, widening is now indicating a US recession.
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The “close one” in 1998 was with the LTCM disaster.
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The key breakout in 2011 occurred with the Euro Crisis.
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That was not a cyclical change in credit spreads.
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This one is!
BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS
E-MAIL bhoye.institutionaladvisors@telus.net
WEBSITE: www.institutionaladvisors.com
Listen to the Bob Hoye Podcast every Friday afternoon at TalkDigitalNetwork.com







