Gold & Precious Metals

“I believe we are finally in the up cycle for gold and it started late last year or early this year – what I really love right now is the short story – the short story is….”the commercials are heavily short” and they are never or hardly ever wrong – that’s the investment advice these days – don’t buy gold bc the commercials are very short and it might drop back under 1180. Brilliant just friggan Brilliant”

“For the Elliot wave crew – this should be the 3rd wave up and that is the longest wave of them all so if you thought wave 1 to 1900 was special”

….entire comment HERE

Todd Market Forecast

 Wednesday April 6, 2016 3:00 Pacific.  
                 
DOW                                                  + 113 on 1450 net advances
 
NASDAQ  COMP                              + 77 on 1050 net advances
 
SHORT TERM TREND                         Bearish
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND         Bearish
 
STOCKS: A rebound in the price of oil helped the energy sector and the FOMC minutes from the last Fed meeting suggested a more uniformly dovish mentality on the part of members than previously thought.
Of course, after a couple of days in a row on the downside, we were probably due for a bounce anyway.
           
GOLD: Gold was down $6. A rise in rates was most likely the reason along with profit taking from yesterday’s move.
 
CHART: The S&P made up most of the past two day’s decline, but the advance decline line and the transports did not.
     In spite of the action on Wednesday, we still feel that we’re making a short term top. A new high by the S&P would put a dent in that thesis.
 
432aeccf-6676-496f-9b44-e7ec2bfbe8f4 
BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a sell.
   System 7  We are in cash. Stay there for now.
   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.
GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     
 
News and fundamentals: There are no important economic releases on Wednesday. On Thursday we get weekly employment claims.
 
Interesting Stuff: We complain that our days are few and act as if there is no end to them. —–Seneca
 
TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto was up 43.
BONDS:  Bonds had a pullback.                                                                                                                                                             
THE REST:  The dollar was lower. Silver was lower, but crude oil rebounded sharply on the inventory numbers.                                                                                                                
 
Bonds –Bullish as of March 23.                            
 
U.S. dollar – Bearish as of March 7.                              
 
Euro — Bullish as of March 7  
 
Gold —-Bearish as of March 14.                                  
 
Silver—- Bearish as of February 22.                            
 
Crude oil —- Bearish as of April 4.                                  
 
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.    
 
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish from January 29.       
 
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  
Wed. Thu. Fri. Mon. Tue. Wed. Evaluation
Monetary conditions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 day RSI S&P 500 81 72 80 67 41 61 0
5 day RSI NASDAQ 79 79 85 71 49 69  0
McCl-
lAN OSC.
+80 +70 + 33 -51 -116 -44
0
 
Composite Gauge 8 10 9 14 17 6 0
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. 10.0 8.6 8.4 9.0 11.6 11.2 0
CBOE Put Call Ratio 1.12 1.14 .95 .96 1.13 1.00
+
 
VIX 13.56 13.95 13.10 14.12 15.42 14.09
VIX % change -2 +3 – 6 +8 +9 -9
VIX % change 5 day m.a. -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 -1.2 +2.4 +1.0 0
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. +927 +883 +273 -503 -968 -412  +
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. .60 .61 .51 .48 .23 .42 +
Trading Index (TRIN) .84 1.18 1.08 1.04 1.05 .86
 0
 
S&P 500
 
2064 2060 2073 2066 2045 2067 Plurality +2
 INDICATOR PARAMETERS
     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

The Janet Yellen Market Rally!

Currently, we are experiencing the SPX topping formation. Again, it is dangerously overextended. The SPX staged a strong rally due to the repeated actions of Central Bankers, during the month of February 2016.

41011 a

Presently. we are truly living, investing and trading in ‘unprecedented’ times. Another push higher is not out of the question, at this time, into ‘nominal’ new highs as we experienced this past Friday, April 1st, 2016 and then within a week or two it should start cycling back down.

There are strong ‘headwinds’ straight ahead for any attempted rallies that may take place. There is ‘bearish’ divergence within several momentum oscillators. This is signaling major warning signs! There are no bullish or favorable long set ups in the market place environment. I would look towards ‘unexpected’ choppy price movements across the board.

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Investor sentiment has reading levels associated with ‘peaks’ in the equity market advances. Courtesy of ivewmakets.com

It is dangerous when the markets have nothing of substance sustaining them, other than their dependence on the FED’s announcements regarding its’ monetary support. It is extremely dangerous when the FED tailors its’ remarks so as to support financial asset levels. This is not the mandate of the FED, however, we are all waiting with anticipation, to hear their future announcement!

When Dr. Janet Yellen can make a couple of phone calls and implement an equities rally into new highs in 2016, of the equity markets, as of last Friday, April 1st, 2016, then we become the ‘fools’ who believe and buy into it!

Interventions by Central Banks, cannot change the long term trend from ‘bearish’ to ‘bullish’ I don’t think anymore. They are merely delaying the inevitable and just creating a ‘slow roasting bear market’ (as I have previously mentioned for several months is starting to unfold in the US large cap stocks). While these actions of the Central Bankers are now behind us, we are currently entering the earning season, which is most likely to disappoint Wall Street analysts.

The U.S. is currently experiencing the worst financial and economic recovery during the history of the countries’ worst financial crisis’ and ‘recession’, since the Great Depression. Most people don’t realize what is happening and thus don’t see or feel much of this recession, but it’s there building momentum in the background and it will be a rude awakening for most once the breaking point is reached.

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Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the US stock market is at the topping point. Odd favor a major market downturn that will last before the next bounce, and then continue yet again even lower.

This will be a big surprise to most but my followers and I have been watching this unfold for months and are stocking the market to time the next BIG SHORT to make our killing.

Currency Traders Brace for Wild Ride….

….as Volatility Curves Invert 

The $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market is getting turned on its head.

For the first time since 2010, traders of all five of the world’s most-transacted currency pairs are more wary of price swings in the next three months than over the next year. Typically, longer-term measures of volatility are higher to account for future uncertainty.

-1x-1

The last time the volatility measures were all inverted, markets were caught in the midst of the Greek debt crisis.….continue reading HERE

 

10 reasons to invest for income

iStock 000018764690Medium-800x445FAST FACT: compounding A return of 7% when reinvested doubles capital in ten years. A return of 10% when reinvested will accomplish the same goal in seven years.

1. PLIGHT OF SAVERS
The search for income has intensified in recent years as it has hit home that low growth and low interest rates are here to stay in the developed world.

…read more HERE

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