Energy & Commodities

Josef Schachter: Sell This Industry Now

image001A significant Price Decline for Oil and Energy Stocks Expected Over Next Two Quarters- SELL 

Also in this very detailed report from Josef, who was one of the most profound & popular speakers at the World Outlook Conference Feburary 1st/2014:

The High Impact Drilling Watch List 

Research Updates: 

Long Run Exploration Ltd. (LRE-T) 

Sterling Resources (SLG-V) 

Recommended Buy List 

…..read this great report HERE

 

About Josef Schachter

The Schachter Asset Management Inc. team provides energy investment research to Maison Placements – an institutional investment firm – and their institutional clients. The research package includes overview and commodity analyses and forecasts as well as research coverage on Canadian domiciled domestic and international focused oil and gas companies. SAMI also provides energy industry presentations to various other industry related business groups.

The principal of Schachter Asset Management Inc., Josef Schachter, CFA, CMA, has over 35 years of experience in oil and gas investment management. Previously, from 1991 to 1996 Mr. Schachter was with Richardson Greenshields where he was a Director, Chief Market Strategist and a member of its investment policy committee. Josef is a regular commentator on BNN TV as well as various radio shows.

 

NatGas Poised To Slide To $4; That’s Good If You’re A Buyer

HAI NatGasXNatural gas inventories fell by 48 bcf last week, below expectations.

Natural gas was last trading higher by close to 3 percent to $4.35/mmbtu after the Energy Information Administration reported that operators withdrew 48 billion cubic feet from storage last week, below the 55 to 60 bcf that most analysts were expecting.

The latest withdrawal was below last year’s draw of 62 bcf, but above the five-year average draw of 30 bcf.

weeklydraws20032014

In turn, inventories now stand at 953 bcf, which is 923 bcf below the year-ago level and 875 bcf below the five-year average (calculated using a slightly different methodology than the EIA).

usnaturalgasinventories20032014

usinventorydeficitsurplus20032014

….continue reading page 2

 

 

Here’s an Unexpected Vote For Coal

“putting your money where the market is”

Here’s an Unexpected Vote For Coal

There’s a lot of money to be made spotting market bottoms in commodities. Buying producers and projects at ultra-low valuations, before the inevitable uptick in a sector.

Market commentaries are a key indicator in this regard. With bottoms usually being marked by “irrational apathy”–illogical reasoning from market bears who’ve simply been spooked by falling valuations in unloved sectors.

There’s been a lot of such sentiment lately in coal.

I was particularly struck by one comment the last few weeks. From a high-profile market analyst, who noted that Asian coal demand can be written off as a market driver. Because no one in this part of the world wants to build new coal-fired power plants.

It’s striking how such analysis flies in the face of actual events on the ground. In fact, just this week we got news of one high-profile energy consumer that’s actively looking to add more coal power to its supply mix.

That’s Tokyo Gas, Japan’s largest municipal natural gas utility. Whose managers told a major power conference that the firm has “strong interest” in building new coal-fired power plants in order to diversify energy supply.

The comments came from Tokyo Gas executive officer and senior general manager Kunio Nohata. Who told the Gastech conference in Goyang, South Korea that his company “may have a coal-fired power plant in the future or at least, we may buy electricity from coal-fired power plants.”

The move comes as Japanese utilities come under increasing pressure to cut fuel costs. With prices for alternative fuels like LNG still running at very high levels here compared to other parts of the world.

At the very least, this shows that big players are still receptive to coal. At the most, it could signal a wave of increasing coal demand as power producers increasingly come to rely on this cheap and reliable baseload fuel.

We’re seeing the same story in India, East Africa and Southeast Asia. If analysts are saying otherwise, it might be time to be looking for a bottom in this sector.

Here’s to putting your money where the market is,

Dave Forest
 
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8 Reasons Agriculture Stocks Are Headed Much, Much Higher

imagesThe global boom in agriculture investments is nowhere near over, nor are rising food prices, despite recent numbers from the FAO. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization reports that world food prices are relatively stable, and well below the highs we saw in 2011. The World Bank agrees, and is reporting stable and declining global food prices. So should you trust their numbers?

Here’s the reality: Beef prices have just posted their biggest price spike in a decade, and the Wall Street Journal reports that food prices are surging and are expected to rise another 3.5% this year. Riots are breaking out in Venezuela with sky-high food prices partially to blame. More riots can be expected worldwide, as we saw in 2008 and 2011 when there were more than two dozen countries dealing with food-related social chaos.

Droughts, subsidized ethanol production and blistering Chinese demand…..

….much much more HERE

Farmers Will Be Driving the Lamborghinis – Part 11

The Underappreciated Significance of Food Security and Fertilizers 
 
Though many disinflationary forces still predominate around the globe, more and more is being said about food inflation. We still believe in the primacy of food security as forces as disparate as the weather and urbanization coalesce to push the price of food upwards. 
 
Some recent headlines reinforce this assertion: 
 
Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops WSJ 3/18/14 (subscription req’d) 
 
Brazil Drought Jolts Commodities’ Prices – WSJ 3/4/14 (subscription req’d)
 
 
It’s also not just the “staples” like wheat or meat that have seen prices trending upwards. Even shrimp are experiencing price “hyperinflation”, to borrow a phrase from Business Insider:
 
Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 2.27.34 AM
 
The dramatic increase in shrimp prices is reportedly one of the reasons Darden Restaurants (DRI:NYSE) is trying to spin off its Red Lobster seafood chain. Clearly, the restaurant can’t pass along a price increase to a consumer without the means to pay for it.
 
Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 2.28.13 AM
 
Not surprisingly, as food price increases have started to garner headlines, central banks and governments are pledging to step in and ease the pain:
 
Brazil central bank pledges to limit food inflation jump – Reuters 3/18/14
 
Government involvement can, of course, take many forms including trade agreements. China and the Netherlands recently committed to signing a trade agreement where the Chinese will “import” Dutch dairy expertise to increase both the quantity and quality of Chinese dairy products:
 
China, Netherlands to sign trade pacts, including deal on dairy cooperation – Foxnews.com 3/23/14
 
And perhaps most worryingly, as food prices increase, wages have not kept pace. While consumer prices in the US have risen by 6.4% since 2011, the price of chicken is up 18.4%, ground beef is up 16.8% and bacon (a personal favorite) is up 22.8%. Median income has reportedly only gained 1% over the same timeframe.
 
The charts below, though slightly dated, show the trend in price inflation of select food items.
 
Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 2.30.05 AM
 
Counteracting This Trend
 
There are several ways to protect against rising food prices. Self-education regarding technologies and geopolitical developments is a good start. With Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy in annexing Crimea, several of Moscow’s allies, including Belarus, are rethinking their relationship with Moscow. You’ll remember that Belarus is one of the most important potash producers on the globe.
 
If Belarus goes “in play” as the Ukraine has, profound implications for global fertilizer markets will result. If you have a subscription, please see the excellent article in the most recent edition of Foreign Affairs titled, “Belarus Wants Out: One of Russia’s Closest European Allies Begins to Play the Field”.
 
Improving agricultural output can also help mitigate rising food prices and this is why we have been close followers of the fertilizer space. Brian Ostroff of Windemere Capital, has penned a wonderful article discussing the fertilizer markets and the implications for Arianne Phosphate (DAN:TSX, DRRSF:OTCBB). You can view his prescient thoughts here.
 
We will be returning to the fertilizer markets in the Notes shortly as it appears that there has been movement and consolidation in the space which brings with it more discovery opportunities.
 
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