Energy & Commodities

Will South America’s Latest Oil Boom Spark A Military Clash?

Since the controversial 1899 decision which set the border between Venezuela and Guyana, Caracas has repeatedly contested the ruling, claiming the 61,000 square miles west of the Essequibo river belongs to the Bolivarian Republic.

That controversy has heated up in recent years with authoritarian Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro reinvigorating the claim as a means of distracting Venezuela’s long-suffering people from the country’s economic collapse and near implosion into a failed state.

In a surprising development at the Norway brokered negotiations in Mexico between Maduro’s regime and Venezuela’s opposition, an agreement was established between both parties reviving the petrostate’s territorial claims against Guyana. This has alarmed Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs releasing a statement rejecting that agreement and going on to say that “Guyana cannot be used as an altar of sacrifice for settlement of Venezuela’s internal political differences.” Cynically, the renewed pressure being applied by Maduro with the support of Venezuela’s opposition, led by internationally recognized interim president Juan Guaido comes at a time when ExxonMobil has made significant oil discoveries in the contested region. Since 2015, the global energy supermajor has made 22 discoveries in the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block offshore Guyana and estimates that it has at least 9 million barrels of recoverable oil resources. Part of the Stabroek Block, including a segment of the deep-water Liza oilfield, sits in the contested Essequibo territory, known in Venezuela as Guayana Esequiba…read more.

Canada’s Oil Industry Could Win Big In Hard-Fought Election

The future of Canada’s oil and gas industry – a major employer in the country and especially in oil-rich Alberta – is at stake in Monday’s federal election, in which climate change is a key theme alongside the impacts of the pandemic on the Canadian economy. The snap election, which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberals called in hopes of capitalizing on his handling of the COVID emergency, is too close to call, polls showed a day before the vote.

As climate change is increasingly taking center stage in every election in major Western oil and gas producers, as it did in Norway earlier this month, the stakes for Canada’s energy industry are high.

If voters choose more of the same, giving Trudeau a win, another government led by the Liberals would demand stricter federal rules from the oil and gas sector to cut emissions, while new oil pipeline projects are unlikely to be supported. But if the Conservatives were to win, Canada’s oil industry could get a boost from a pro-oil federal government. Stocks in major energy companies would also benefit from a Conservative win and could be primed for a relief rally, Michael Bellusci of Bloomberg News notes…read more.

Is Oil Really Doomed?

Two recent reports warned that oil and gas production needs to be significantly reduced if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement goals and curb the effects of climate change. They add to a growing body of research calling on Big Oil to stop pumping. But Big Oil seems to be doing the opposite.

At the beginning of September, Italy’s Eni—one of the most ambitious oil majors when it comes to emission reduction commitments—announced a new oil discovery offshore Ivory Coast. The company estimated the potential reserves of the new discovery at between .5 billion and 2 billion barrels of crude and 1.8-2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Last week, Exxon reported yet another discovery off the coast of Guyana – its twentieth in the Stabroek block. It adds to reserves already estimated at 9 billion barrels of crude, which the Guyanese government plans to exploit to the best of its abilities…read more.

Are Oil Prices Heading To $64 or $200? Depends On Who You Ask

Brent Crude prices are set to retreat to $64 a barrel by the end of 2021, one of Japan’s leading banks says, while the energy minister of a Gulf oil producer warned that the International Energy Agency’s suggestion of no new investments in oil could push oil prices to $200 a barrel.

In a weekly research report on the oil market, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) said that it expects higher OPEC+ oil production, recovering U.S. shale output, and the potential return of Iranian oil to push Brent Crude prices from $75 a barrel in the second quarter of 2021 to $73 at the end of the third quarter and to $64 per barrel at the end of the fourth quarter.

For 2022, the bank expects Brent Crude to average $58 per barrel, as per the report carried by TradeArabia…read more.

Diamond Rebound Rolls On as De Beers Reports Another Bumper Sale

The diamond industry’s resurgence showed no sign of slowing down with De Beers reporting its biggest gem sale since February as consumers continued to buy jewelry.

Anglo American Plc’s De Beers said it sold $515 million of rough diamond at its seventh sale of 2021, the biggest total for this time of year since 2016. The company is currently on track for its best year since 2018.

While initially being hit hard by the pandemic, diamonds have since proved one of the more resilient industries. Stuck-at-home consumers have kept buying stones with competing luxuries such as travel not an option due to coronavirus restrictions. That demand has continued as the global economy started opening up, with strong sales in the key markets of the U.S. and China…read more.