Currency

You Won’t Believe This Award They Give Out to Central Bankers

The “Ig Nobel Prize” is parody of the Noble Prize that is awarded every year for the most trivial scientific achievement. (‘ig’ is short for ‘ignoble’) 

For example, the 2007 recipient for the ‘Ig Nobel Peace Prize’ went to the United States Air Force Wright Lab in Ohio, for proposing the development of a ‘gay bomb’ that could be dropped in hostile territory and make enemy troops sexually attracted to each other. Make love, not war? 

(This actually happened. The proposal was part of a $7.5 million funding request in 1994 to develop non-lethal weapons, including one that would create “severe and lasting halitosis”, and “could be used on mixtures of enemy personnel and civilians.” Your tax dollars at work.) 

So when I opened my email yesterday and saw the subject line: “Central Bank Governor of the Year”, I immediately presumed it was a similar satire. It wasn’t. 

It’s bad enough that our modern society considers the hoodoo of economics to be “science”. 

And that we award our most esteemed prizes for intellectual achievement to its master practitioners like Paul Krugman who tell us how bountiful our national wealth could be if we would only conjure more paper currency out of thin air. 

These ‘scientists’ have managed to convince the entire world that it’s a good idea to award a tiny banking elite with supreme, totalitarian control over the money supply. 

Frankly this idea is even dumber than the Air Force’s. And perhaps the framework of modern central banking will one day receive its own ‘Ig Nobel Prize’. 

But for now, it’s taken very seriously. So seriously, in fact, that the Financial Times’ “Banker” intelligence service recently announced the aforementioned ‘Central Bank Governor of the Year’. 

Guess who won? 

Nope, not Ben Bernanke. You see, while Mr. Bernanke has spent the last several years aggressively expanding the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve, he has been handily out-printed by some of his peers. 

No, this dubious honor goes to Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). 

Mr. Kuroda’s claim to fame is pushing to double the BOJ’s monetary base within just two years, and joining Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to create more inflation. 

He’s off to a hell of a start. 

Since assuming office in March 2013, Mr. Kuroda has printed enough money to inflate his balance sheet by 35.5% in just 9-months. And the Japanese yen has plummeted along with it. 

Despite obliterating his currency, the FT absurdly claims that Mr. Kuroda has “restored credibility to the Bank of Japan and inspired confidence in Japan’s economy.” 

Bear in mind, the Japanese government is already in position where the NET government debt is over 140% of GDP. 

And they’re spending a full 25% of its tax revenue just to make INTEREST PAYMENTS… at a time when interest rates are effectively ZERO. 

If interest rates rise to just 1%, the Japanese government will go bankrupt. Yet this is exactly the direction that Mr. Kuroda is going. 

His goal is to create inflation of at least 2%. But if inflation is 2%, who in his right mind would loan money to the government at 0.3%? You’d be losing money. 

Interest rates will HAVE to rise. Investors will demand it. So Mr. Kuroda’s path will either bankrupt the Japanese government… or he will create a currency crisis by devaluing his currency to nothing. 

It’s extraordinary how dire the situation is. Yet Mr. Kuroda is now considered by the grand wizards of the financial system to be the BEST IN THE WORLD. Incredible.

 

 

Until tomorrow, 
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Simon Black 
Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com

 

The US ADP employment number was stronger than expected at 238,000 for December. That marks the 5th straight month of employment increases.

The US Dollar has continued to be strong on the back of better economic data, up 5 of the last 6 trading days.

 

Drew Zimmerman

Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor

604-664-2842 – Direct

604 664 2900 – Main

604 664 2666 – Fax

800 810 7022 – Toll Free

dzimmerman@pifinancial.com

The Canadian Dollar futures plunged to 92.81 this morning, the lowest mark since May 25th 2010! We are now at 3 1/2 year lows.

The dollar was driven lower this morning by a combination of weak trade data and a disappointing Ivey PMI number. That added fuel to the fire of speculators taking a huge bearish bet of over 5.5 billion against the loonie. Most of the big banks in Canada have a Q1 target of around 90 cents for the loonie showing that we may have more room to go.

 

Drew Zimmerman

Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor

604-664-2842 – Direct

604 664 2900 – Main

604 664 2666 – Fax

800 810 7022 – Toll Free

dzimmerman@pifinancial.com

Dollar Haters – The IMF & The Destruction of Capital Formation

Dollar-HatersIBSFVS-Y-2013

One question that rises to the surface immediately with the IMF proposal to confiscate 10% of everyone’s bank accounts in Europe, is what will this do to the Euro. Will the Euro rally or fall? The overwhelming misguided Dollar Haters who have preached the end of the dollar and rush out and buy gold have been discredited with respect to gold. However, the worst is yet to come. The dollar is so oversold on a global basis it is nuts. Here is the Swiss franc. Even the ocillators are crawling along the bottom. It is clear, we still face a massive dollar rally that will wipe out the short dollar positions. But that does not rule out a final surge in the Euro because a confiscation of assets is not really putting money in the pocket of bankers, it is really paying off their losses thanks to the Euro.

IBEUFOR-M-20140105

In other words, such a confiscation is incredibly DEFLATIONARY for it will reduce the money supply since the confiscation will cover losses – not stimulate the economy. We can see that the week of February 3rd will be an important near-term target.

IBEUFOR-W-01052014

The key months in 2014 will be February, June and September. There will be higher volatility in April going into the May elections and again in October and November with a Panic Cycle in October.

We will be reviewing these in detail at the upcoming WEC Conference held in March.

 

Currencies from the Australian dollar to the yen and Malaysia’s ringgit climbed against the greenback, trimming annual declines before the New Year holiday. Silver and gold rebounded after slumping yesterday while oil in New York held below $100 a barrel.

Australia’s currency, known as the Aussie, added 0.2 percent versus the dollar by 11:33 a.m. in Sydney, while the ringgit gained 0.1 percent. The yen climbed 0.2 percent, leaving its 2013 slide at 17 percent. Silver and gold gained after losing at least 1.4 percent yesterday. The metals are set for their worst years since 1981. Oil was steady at $99.36. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures and Asian stocks were little changed after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) closed at a record.

The dollar is poised for its best annual surge versus the yen since 1979 and has gained against 10 of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg this year as the Federal Reserve said it would pare back record bond purchases and the Bank of Japan pledged to maintain stimulus. While markets from Japan to South Korea and Indonesiaare shut today, Australia is scheduled to post private sector credit data and in the U.S., reports on house prices and consumer confidence are due.

“Dollar-yen has probably been one of the most popular leverage trades throughout the year,” Robert Rennie, the Sydney-based global head of currency and commodity strategy at Westpac Banking Corp., said by phone. “The BOJ’s intention to almost double the size of its balance sheet and more than double its monetary base target over a two-year period was heavily sponsored by the hedge fund community.”

Yen Retreat ….continued