Mike’s Midweek Comment

On The Brink of a Massive Change

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Thursday, 17 November 2016 3:04

Since Trumps election as President the Dow dropped 800 then straight up to new highs. The Bond market is where huge damage has been done, a trillion dollars lost in the last 8 days. A continuation of that trend is frightening with everyone comfortable with interest rates near zero. Rioting continues in the US and Europe, with anti Obama riots yesterday in Greece. Will Trump renegotiate Nafta?  How about the softwood lumber agreement?

…more from Michael: Interest Rates Are Heading Higher

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A Slick Way To Fight Carbon Emissions

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Wednesday, 16 November 2016 15:41

The heated debate of Carbon Taxes first has to take into consideration that if all of Canada was shut down, no cars, no factory, no heated homes….it would only reduce World Wide carbon emissions less than under 2%. If reducing carbon emissions is the priority, Government shouldn’t be looking to a carbon tax regardless of what they promise to spend the money on. There is a way though….

…also from Michael: Canada’s Arrogant Politicians

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Interest Rates Are Heading Higher

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Tuesday, 15 November 2016 13:32

The evidence continues to mount that the 35 year bear market in US bonds is over, interest rates are heading up and the implications are dramatic. For example,  the rate on a 10 year US bond is 2.37%. Compare that to the rate of a 10 year German bond of .35% and you know why German money is flooding into the US driving the dollar higher and other currencies down

…also from Michael: The Main Investment Theme For the Next Decade

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Interest Rates Are Heading Higher

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Tuesday, 15 November 2016 13:12

Transcript:

rates-upInterest Rates Are Heading Higher

The implications of a change in the interest rate trend would be profound, and the evidence continues to mount that the 35-year bear market and bonds is over in the US. In other words the low in interest rates is in. 

The US 30-year bond prices have clearly broken down and the 10-year bond looks to be on the same path. I’ll give you just one quick example of the implications before maybe you nod off to sleep. The rate on a 10-year US bond is now 2.37%, almost 3% on their 30-year bond. Now think about this. The 10-year raid on a German bond is only .35% soyou don’t have to have a finance major to see the incentive for German money to start coming into the US pushing the US dollar higher, and other currencies, including the Loonie and the Euro, lower. That’s what’s been happening in the last week with the Loonie dipping under 74 cents.

 
 The drop-in bond prices is estimated to have cost investors 1 trillion dollars in the last week alone! At the same time the estimated 9 trillion in debt of emerging market countries that have their debt denominated in US dollars is becoming unmanageable as their home currencies decline along with their economies. 
 
 As I said, this is a really big story. There’s a 152 trillion dollars in global debt including 16 trillion in negative yield debt, so a change in interest rates will have major, long-term repercussions.
 
Michael Campbell
Moneytalks.net
 
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A Historical Change

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Monday, 14 November 2016 14:07

The common theme found in Hillary Clinton’s loss is that it wasn’t their fault that she did. In spite of overwhelming odds, Donald Trump prevailed. The reason? Hillary lost because everything has changed.

…also from Michael: The Main Investment Theme For the Next Decade

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