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5 Warning Signs of Market ‘Euphoria’

The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is up 23.4% this year and recently reached a new record high, but five signs of investor euphoria suggest growing risks, according to Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. She endorses RBC’s year-end 2019 target of 2,950 for the index, 4.7% below the Nov. 12 close, according to a recent story in Barron’s.

Calvasina discussed these five signs in a note to clients:

  1. Asset managers have bullish positions in U.S. equity futures similar to the highs before the financial crisis, risking a big negative reaction to bad news.
  2. U.S. stock valuations are near their late 2017 highs.
  3. Earnings forecasts for 2020 are too optimistic.
  4. Stock prices anticipate a phase one U.S.-China trade agreement, but business confidence remains seriously damaged.
  5. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 32% above its Dec. 2018 low, similar to previous rallies off lows in 2010, 2011 and 2016 that paused.

Significance for Investors

“We haven’t learned anything in the current reporting season that justifies euphoric positioning and peak valuations,” Calvasina wrote. “Reporting season has been better than feared, but the overall tone around demand/macro, tariffs and cost savings all sounds very familiar–it’s what companies have been saying all year,” she added.

On the other hand, money market fund assets are $3.4 trillion, a 10-year high and still rising, undercutting the “euphoric positioning” narrative. Several strategists see this as a bullish indicator, per The Wall Street Journal.

Calvasina predicts that a pause by the Fed in cutting interest rates limits the upside for equity valuations. If 2020 earnings disappoint, as she anticipates, stock prices should sink….CLICK for complete article

Murky Business of Chinese Merchandise on Amazon’s US Site

As Amazon “aggressively recruited Chinese manufacturers and merchants” to sell to US consumers, its China team “saw increasing patterns of fraud, counterfeits and unsafe products.” But consumers have no clue where the sellers are and where the products came from.

Everybody who buys enough on Amazon has noticed this: Buyer beware!

You get a mix of Amazon’s own merchandise and the third-party market place, which accounts for over half of Amazon’s physical gross merchandise sales. You’re surrounded by good merchandise, fakes, and dangerous products made overseas. There are legit sellers, legit manufacturers, and dubious sellers and manufacturers. You don’t know who or where the seller or manufacturer is because they don’t have to disclose it, including many sellers in China. It’s all there, the good, the bad, and the ugly, and buyers have to sort it out on their own. Even many of the product reviews are fake.

We’ve had good experiences too: We bought a set of cotton sheets via the Amazon platform from the manufacturer in India. Because it cut out all the middlemen, except the Amazon platform, the price was a fraction of the price of similar-quality sheets – also made in India – at a big-name US department store. And we got it a couple of days after ordering it. That’s one end of the spectrum…CLICK for complete article

Ousted Uber CEO Cashes Out $500 Million In Stock

Ousted Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick sold more than half a billion dollars’ worth of stock last week, and many expect he will be redirecting that cash windfall to his new startup.

Kalanick co-founded Uber in 2009 but was ousted as CEO in 2017 after a series of scandals rocked the company. However, he still owns 4 percent of the rideshare giant and remains a director on its board.

The One Chart Every Millennial Should Ignore

The media is full of articles about the financial situation of Millennials in today’s economy. According to numerous surveys, they are saddled with too much debt, can’t secure higher wage-paying jobs, and are financially distressed on many fronts. Moreover, this is occurring during the longest financial and economic boom in the history of the United States.

Of course, the media is always there to help by chastising boot-strapped Millennials to dump their savings into the financial markets to chase overvalued, extended, and financially questionable stocks.

To wit:

“Only about half of American families are participating in some way in the stock market, according to research from the St. Louis Fed. When it comes to millennials (ages 23 to 38), about 60% have no direct or indirect exposure to the stock market.

Of course, you don’t definitely don’t have to invest, Erin Lowry, author of ‘Broke Millennial Takes on Investing,’ tells CNBC Make It. It’s not a life requirement. But you should understand what you’re losing out on if you avoid the markets. It’s a shocking amount, Lowry says. ‘You’re going to have to save so much more money to achieve the same goals because the market is helping do some of the work.’”

Great, you have a person with NO financial experience advising Millennials to put their “savings” into the single most difficult game on the planet….CLICK for complete article

Hong Kong Protester Shot


Hong Kong police opened fire and wounded at least one protester during a fracas broadcast live on Facebook, as chaos erupted across China’s self-governing territory during rush hour on Monday.