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Mike’s Comment – Feb 12th

A Liberal MP from Quebec says government’s instant divisive response to the Truckers’ Convoy is by design – but at what cost to Canada?

Cost of B.C. vaccine booking hotline revealed: $47.66 million

The B.C. NDP government spent $47.66 million last year on the contract with Telus for the province’s vaccine booking hotline, documents obtained under freedom of information law reveal.

The hotline, plagued by initial problems, was designed to assist the first wave of those eligible for vaccines to easily book appointments at provincial clinics and sites. The documents reveal some of the early growing pains, including some challenges in tracking the hours worked by call agents.

The first invoice, for $20.4 million, was dated May 28, 2021 and reflected the initial setup of the Telus Elements call centre platform and costs for service from Feb. 28 to April 30. The actual number of hours billed was withheld under a clause in the freedom of information law that protects proprietary information, such as unit pricing…read more.

The Lone Bear Calling For $65 Oil

  • The head of commodity analysis at Citigroup believes that there has been a ‘colossal failure’ when it comes to analyzing the fundamentals of today’s oil markets.
  • While plenty of analysts are calling for $100 oil, Citigroup sees oil prices falling to an average of $65 this year.
  • Ed Morse believes the current undersupply is a seasonal phenomenon and sees the global oil balance moving back to a surplus in the second quarter.

Bullishness across commodity markets is overwhelming. Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie summed it up earlier this week by saying “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

Yet there is the occasional bear – and in oil, one bear is arguing that oil will fall in just a few months.

Citi’s head of commodity analysis Ed Morse is a rare contrarian voice in a sea of commodity analysts predicting oil at $100. For a while now, Morse has argued that instead of rising much further, oil will actually fall this year, potentially averaging $65 per barrel by the end of the year.

“I think there’s been a colossal failure of the analytical community to look at what’s happening on the ground, to look at projects that have been reaching final investment decisions, to look at where the efficiency of capital is, to be blindsided by a prejudice, which says not enough capital is being spent, and decline rates are going up,” Morse told Barron’s in a recent interview.

According to Morse’s team’s projections for this year, global oil supply should increase by 5.5 million bpd, and this is excluding Iran, which seems to be nearing a chance to return to global oil markets if the ongoing talks about its nuclear program with the United States end with an agreement. As Bloomberg’s Xavier Blas noted in a recent column, Iran may already be exporting oil illicitly, and the lifting of U.S. sanctions may not change the amounts much, but the very news will be bearish for oil prices…read more.

Canada’s population fastest growing in G7 thanks to immigration

Canada’s population growth over the the past half decade has been largely driven by immigration, according to 2021 census data.

Statistics Canada captured the Canadian population on May 11, 2021, five years after its previous census in 2016.

The newly-released findings reveal Canada grew about twice as fast as other G7 countries, which include France, Germany, Italy, Japan, U.K. and U.S. Even in 2020 when the pandemic halted Canada’s population growth, it continued to be the fastest-growing in the G7. The main reason for the slowdown was the border restrictions Canada put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Canada is now home to nearly 37 million people. Immigration, not fertility, drove Canada’s population growth. Four out of five of the 1.8 million people added to the population were either temporary residents or immigrants with permanent status. The remaining population growth was due to natural increase (the difference between births subtracted by deaths)…read more.

Liberal MP decries ‘politicization’ of pandemic, questions federal policies

A Liberal MP is speaking out against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and provincial governments’ pandemic policies, and politicians’ handling of the ongoing trucker convoy protests.

Joel Lightbound, the Louis-Hébert, Que. MP, held a press conference on Parliament Hill on Tuesday morning saying that he thinks those concerned about COVID-19 policies have “legitimate concerns” that should not be dismissed.

Citing the impact on Canadians’ mental health, families becoming divided, and people losing their jobs over decisions to not to get vaccinated, Lightbound said he thinks political leaders are “unwilling to adapt.”

“I’ve heard from hundreds of constituents and citizens who took the time to reach out to me these past weeks, folks who have nothing to do with these demonstrations, who are for the most part vaccinated, who have done everything as they should these last two years,” Lightbound said.

He thinks political leaders have failed at explaining to Canadians their rationale for continued public health measures, citing the vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers as the latest example.

“I fear that this politicization of the pandemic risks undermining the public’s trust in our public health institutions. This is not a risk we ought to be taking lightly,” Lightbound said…read more.