Regular Guest on Money Talks, and one of  Michael Campbell’s favorites Jack Crooks of Black Swan Capital is offering Exclusively for readers and listeners of MoneyTalks a very SPECIAL OFFER. When looking at investments or the Economy – “Its all about the price of currencies” – Michael Campbell

Today’s Currency Currents below:

Quotable
“Why then is Lehman’s failure perceived to be such a problem? The major complaint, and the only persuasive argument, is psychological, not technical: Markets expected the government to bail everybody out. Lehman’s failure made them reconsider whether the government would bail out Citigroup. If everyone expects the government to bail out, it has to do so to avoid a panic.” – John H. Cochrane

FX Trading – The Immortal Words of John H. Cochrane and Irving Berlin

Here we sit with nothing but blue skies ahead. Kind of reminds me of the popular song of the same name (I enjoy the Frank Sinatra and Willie Nelson versions of Blue Skies).

The blue days have come and gone. Nothing but blue skies for investors from now on.

Risk appetite is back with a vengeance; US stocks almost refuse to succumb to any pressure; commodities have found support despite the fact that global demand and international trade have not returned in any meaningful way; analysts are quick to tout the healing power of stimulus.

Source: Elliott Wave International – Cargo ships waiting for cargo article HERE

At this point, it doesn’t make sense to fight the tide of investor optimism. Any beachgoer hopefully knows you’ll drown if you try to swim against a rip current; and so it goes …

In spite of all the long-term global analysis we, and many others, point to indicating a serious potential for deflationary forces to smother recovery efforts, people are more than happy to swim against the global macro currents … because the safety and stability of the shore is so close they can practically touch it.

But if we and so many others are accurate in our broad analysis that leaves the door open for deflation and stagnation (at best), then why are investors not heeding the advice? What’s giving them confidence that they’re swimming in the right direction?

All questions we don’t necessarily know the answer to, but we’ll give it a try …

A loyal reader recently asked:

Is it possible that the U.S. government is encouraging a weak dollar (read devaluation) as a means of facilitating the repayment of the enormous national debt?

To it we say it’s absolutely possible and may be the policy.  A weak dollar policy they see as a way to boost global asset markets in an effort to drive demand on rising confidence.  It is a very dangerous game now, especially when there is no real growth opportunity in the US.  We think they think they can “manage” the dollar.  They can’t.  It may bite them, and us, in the process.

Jury is still out but possibilities rising. 

Also, think about how the wealth effect factors in …

Much wealth was lost from plummeting home prices and portfolio values. Perhaps a weak dollar policy, considering the tight correlation between the buck and risk appetite, is aimed at restoring some of the lost wealth via the stock market and, in effect, restoring confidence in the system.

Either way, we think Mr. Cochrane (in the quotable used above) made a good point, taken from his recent testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. He was discussing the perception of the Lehman Brothers failure; but I am referring to the perception of the global economy’s condition:

The rally in risk has been mostly psychological, not technical.

The widespread belief is that policymakers and leaders reacted quickly, that they played an integral role in stabilizing the economy in the wake of financial collapse. And perhaps more importantly, it is believed they are ready to pounce should any notable signs of a double-dip recession surface.

Perhaps, considering their save-the-day persona, we should call them superheroes; because if they’re anything like Barbara Boxer then they may be offended if we just call them policymakers.

Shall we join Mr. Irving Berlin for a few lines?

Never saw the sun shining so bright
Never saw things going so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you’re in love, my how they fly

…

I should care if the wind blows east or west
I should fret if the worst looks like the best
I should mind if they say it can’t be true
I should smile, that’s exactly what I do

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com

 

Exclusively for readers/listeners/members of MoneyTalks a very SPECIAL OFFER.

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You see, we recently segmented our all-in-one newsletter, Currency Strategist, into four brand new, separate, focused newsletters. As we launch we thought we’d extend an opportunity for you to get in early …

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Currency Currents
Description: Macro view of the global economy and how it may impact currency prices.
Frequency: Daily
Price: Free

Currency Investor
Description: Designed to help investors ride intermediate- and long-term trends in major and select emerging market currencies.
Frequency: Monthly
Recommendations: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) [*Analysis and time frames also support multi-currency deposit investors.]
Everyday Price: $149 per year

Currency Options
Description: Designed to provide speculators with trading recommendations covering both the FX options listed on the International Securities Exchange (ISE)and currency futures options listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Frequency: Bi-weekly
Average Holding Period: Days or Weeks to months
Recommendations: International Securities Exchange (ISE)-listed FX Options or Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)-listed currency futures options
Everyday Price: $595 per year

Emerging Market Currencies
Description: Designed to help traders and speculators exploit short- and intermediate-term trading opportunities in the highly volatile and potentially profitable world of emerging market currencies.
Frequency: Bi-weekly
Average Holding Period: Weeks to months
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Everyday Price: $695 per year

Forex & Currency Futures Description: Designed to help short-term traders, using high leverage, spot trading opportunities among major currency pairs and cross rates.
Frequency: Daily
Average Holding Period: Intraday to several days
Recommendations: Spot Forex and Currency Futures
Everyday Price: $89 per month or $995 per year

[Note: All services include Flash Alerts delivered outside of regular publication dates to enter or exit positions as the market dictates.]

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Here’s some explanation on the different newsletters you’ll receive …

Our Emerging Market newsletter is geared towards specific emerging market commentary and takes time to evaluate individual countries and themes in depth. We will also recommend a balanced portfolio of currencies to hold as an emerging currency speculator.

In our Currency Options newsletter we are technical-minded, active, and a bit medium-term oriented … occasionally diverging from our longer-term fundamental market views. In addition to that, we incorporate a strict stop-loss guideline in our recommendations, usually around a 50-60% loss threshold, as well as a level at which to take partial profits. We believe this helps reduce the downside and allows for you to be more proactive in grabbing gains when you have them.

In the Forex & Currency Futures newsletter we are active and base most of our trade analysis on short-term technical setups — shooting to grab small open gains when we have them and keeping a skin in the game if we are fortunate to have latched on to a trend. That means you will consistently see recommendations to trade with at least two lots at a time. But remember: the size you trade and amount of leverage must make sense for your own account size and circumstances.

Within the monthly newsletter — Currency Investor — will reside the longer-term trend analysis work and thematic fundamental views incorporating a detailed look at weekly and monthly inter-market relationships between currencies, stocks, bonds and commodities.

Everything you read about above plus access to archives, webinar notifications, audio updates, special reports and more.

We work hard to consistently deliver, what we consider, the best currency trading newsletters available on the market today. We hope you’ll agree.

I urge you, if you were thinking about trading currencies, whether through options, ETFs, futures or Spot FX then don’t wait.

If you want an honest approach and a realistic look at currencies, you’ll have come to the right place.

If for any reason whatsoever you try us out and are unsatisfied with Black Swan’s currency newsletters within the first 30-days of your Membership, we’ll issue a full refund and our thanks for giving us a try.

Take advantage of this 30-day Risk Free offer!

So, if you’re ready to give us a try, Click Here to Sign Up

we’re looking forward to having you onboard with us!

P.S. As a BONUS, subscribe today and receive this 20-page Special Report:

Preparing for a Breakup in the European Monetary System

Most people are worried about the US dollar … and for good reason. These same people tend to see the euro as a real competitor vying for world reserve currency status. Many have been conditioned that way by the financial press. But we believe the risk of breakup in the European Monetary System is building rapidly. We examine the structure of this “artificial fiat currency” and why another downturn in the global economy could mean lights out for the euro. Be prepared.

Even if you decide to cancel, keep the report – it’s yours as a ‘thank you’ for giving us a try!

Even in tough times, which we recognize is on everyone’s mind these days, that’s a very reasonable price for the versatility and money-making potential packed into these newsletters. Of course, at a little over $3 per day you could instead put that money towards you’re morning cup of coffee on the way to work, I guess.

If you want to learn how to implement a solid approach to currency investing … or even if you’re just looking for well-researched trading and investing ideas …

I urge you to give us a try.

Sincerely,

David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital

dnewman@blackswantrading.com
Toll-Free 866.846.2672

 

Futures, Forex and Option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance either actual or hypothetical is not indicative of future performance.

Black Swan Capital newsletter services are strictly informational publications and do not provide individual, customized investment advice.  The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk.  Detailed disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer

 

Editor Note: Highly recommend that you take a monday morning visit to Don Vailoux’s monday report where he analyses an astonishing 40 plus Stocks, Commodities and Indexes.

Pre-opening Comments for Thursday September 24th

U.S. equity index futures are slightly higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 3 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to a mild reduction in weekly jobless claims and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Weekly jobless claims fell 21,000 to 530,000.

The focus today is on the G20 meeting today in Pittsburg. A wide variety of economic issues will be discussed today and tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs raised target prices by 10% on a series of U.S. retail merchandisers in anticipation of a recovery in sales during the back to school season.

Citrix added 4% after the stock was added to Goldman Sach’s Conviction list.
Bed Bath & Beyond slipped 3% despite reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings. Consensus was $0.48 versus $0.46 per share last year. Actual was $0.52 per share. However, the stock was downgraded by Credit Suisse.

Canwest announced plans to sell its Australian TV network for approximately $650 million. Funds are to be used to reduce debt.

Paychex is down 3% after lowering earnings and revenue guidance for fiscal 2010.

Rite Aid is down 10% after the company cut earnings and revenue guidance for fiscal 2010.

Technical Action Yesterday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remained bullish yesterday despite a late day sell off. Six S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (Avon, H&R Block, NiSource, Raytheon, Teradata and XTO Energy) and one stock broke support (United Health). The Up/Down ratio rose from 15.03 to (438/29=) 15.10 another all time high.

Technical action by TSX Composite stocks was quiet. Two TSX stocks broke resistance (Royal Bank, Vitera) and one stock broke support (Forzani Group). The Up/Down ratio slipped from 6.00 to (121/21=) 5.76.

What happened after the Fed’s announcement yesterday
Initially, the response was positive: U.S. equity indices advanced, the U.S. Dollar weakened, bond prices slipped slightly and gold and gold stocks strengthened slightly. Shortly after, traders began to realize the significance of the Fed’s announcement to extend its program to purchase U.S. treasury bonds. All markets reversed: the U.S. Dollar recovered and closed near its high, equity markets fell and closed near their low , bond prices recovered and closed near their high and gold and gold stocks fell and closed near the low for the day. The later response comes at an important time. MACD for all of these markets (except bonds) are showing short term technical signs of a reversal: U.S. equity markets are peaking, the U.S. Dollar is bottoming and gold and gold stocks are peaking. Following are the charts with their MACD indicator:

 

 

THE CASTLEMOORE INVESTMENT COMMENTARY

Ready, Willing but not yet A Bull.

At CastleMoore, we first decide how much exposure we want to a given market and then how assets are allocated within that parameter. For this we use several tools, including the work done by our colleagues in the investment business, work that is meant for general or limited distribution.

You need not be a genius to succeed in this business. You just have to know where to find them.

Mark Twain once wrote, “to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” In the art of investing, this can be a fatal flaw. A common mistake made by many investors is to be so firmly committed to a point of view that all new information or commentary gets viewed though glasses color for that opinion. You can always find a chart or research report supports your point view –curve fit- and often objectivity takes a back seat to the desire to have been proven right in the first place. It’s why an investor may hold onto a losing position just long enough to break even or eke out a slight gain.

We should make a point of saying this at least once a year, but we’ll state it here: tax considerations aside, once you’ve bought a stock, forget about what you paid for it. Think only about what it is worth at the present vis-à-vis its current price.

Taxes considered, it makes all the more sense to sell a position and establish a tax loss (assuming you can do something with it), even if you subsequently buy a similar security with the proceeds. This is called a tax swap.

At any rate, we read outside material if for no other reason than to know other perspectives and not to pick up any habits related to obstinacy. And, of course, our colleagues in our business like reading our material as well.

Yesterday markets’ action was interesting on several fronts, all of which ostensibly related to the release of the Fed minutes. Everyone knew that there was zero chance of a hike. What participants were interested in was the language of the minutes. Without parsing it, suffice it to say the Fed said things are a bit better but there are still risks.

Take a look how various markets responded, immediately following the release..like within minutes (2:16ish)…then about 45 minutes later. All the charts are 1 minute charts of yesterday only.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

DOW JONES

US 10 yr Treasury (closes at 3pm)

Now this type of action reinforces two points. The first is that everything is correlated by the minute now which conjures up uneasy feelings about the structure and health of markets. The broad indices are moving up or staying strong within our relative strength tables which shows there’s less leadership.

The second point is a little more discretionary in nature, and it’s that, markets now are not discounting things as much as only a few weeks ago and are now sometimes selling on news. That’s why the word ostensibly was used above. Things are curiousor and curiousor…….

Of interest too as Western markets push higher is that China (Shanghai) is off 18+% since August. It and the NASDAQ lead the way last December. The Shanghai index did not come anywhere close to retesting as the NASDAQ did. Is this a canary in the coal mine?

Though a correction is due, the work now is figuring out just how it will go.

 

CastleMoore Investor Centre – If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.

If you would be interested in participating in a CastleMoore online webinar or if you would be interested in attending live an upcoming CastleMoore investment seminar, send an email to info@castlemoore.com.

CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and past investing experience. For more information on our discipline and methodology please contact us.

CastleMoore Inc.
Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell
www.castlemoore.com

 

Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the Investment Industry. He is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (www.csta.org) and a former technical analyst at RBC Investments.  Now he is the author of a daily letter on equity markets available free on the internet. The reports can be accessed daily right here at www.dvtechtalk.com.

Impossible! That’s what institutional investors say about “Timing the Market”. Mr. Vialoux will explain that, indeed, it can be done with the appropriate analysis. He also will explain why timing the market will be important during the next decade. Buy and Hold strategies are not working anymore; Investors are looking for alternatives. Mr. Vialoux will demonstrate four techniques that can be used to time intermediate stock market swings lasting 5-15 months. The preferred investment vehicles for investing in intermediate stock market swings are Exchange Traded Funds.

Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions.

 

Disclosure: Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The U.S. dollar resumed its swan dive overnight, hitting brand-new, one-year lows.

Meanwhile, gold — the world’s ultimate dollar hedge — surged nicely to within an eyelash of its all-time high.

But it should come as no surprise that global investors are beating the dollar like a red-headed stepchild.

After all — they know that U.S. Treasury Chief Timothy Geithner is going panhandling this week — begging and borrowing every penny he can to fund Washington’s precedent-shattering $1.6 trillion budget deficit.

Today, Geithner will rewrite the history books by dumping an all-time record $43 billion in new U.S. Treasuries on the market in a single day.

PLUS, tomorrow and on Friday, Geithner will return to the trough, borrowing an additional $69 billion to keep the lights on in Washington.

That’s a total of $112 billion in U.S. Treasury borrowing in just three, short days!

Geithner:
“Brother, can you spare $112 BILLION?”

This is truly alarming: If you’re like me, you can remember a time not too long ago when U.S. Treasury borrowing was less than $112 billion for an entire year. Now, we’re borrowing that much in less than one week!

I wish that was the worst of it. It isn’t: So far this year, Geithner has borrowed a mind-boggling $1.41 TRILLION to fund Washington’s debt addiction — nearly THREE TIMES MORE than the Treasury had borrowed at this time last year.

And still, this is only the beginning: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that Obama’s budget will add nearly $10 trillion in new government debt over the next ten years.

If the CBO is correct, our national debt will soar to well over $21 trillion by 2019. That’s more than double the value of all the goods and services our economy now produces in a whole year!

Meanwhile, over at the Federal Reserve, “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke is printing unbacked paper dollars like there’s no tomorrow.

Yesterday alone, in his ongoing attempt to keep Geithner’s precedent-shattering borrowing spree from sending interest rates into the stratosphere, Bernanke had to print more than $4 billion just to BUY treasuries.

THIS is why the U.S. money supply is skyrocketing! THIS is why sophisticated investors worldwide are recoiling in horror.

Protect yourself now or you’ll be kicking yourself later!

The plain truth is, the value of your money — your buying power and your standard of living are being sacrificed on the altar of Washington’s debt addiction.

But if you make the right moves beginning immediately, you still have time to shore up your financial defenses. You can shield yourself, your family and your savings and investments from disaster as this great dollar decline crushes the value of your money.

More than that: There are many ways to harness this historic convulsion to keep your wealth growing.

That’s why I will be presenting a complimentary online seminar entitled “Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar: Protect Yourself and Profit” — in two weeks; on Tuesday, October 6, 2009.

My mission is clear: To help make sure you have the knowledge and the specific recommendations you need to insulate your wealth and to keep it growing as this great dollar disaster unfolds.

This online briefing is absolutely free for you — part of our ongoing commitment to help you sidestep emerging hazards to your wealth and profit no matter what the economy throws at you next.

I’ll give you the clear, concise, unhedged answers to your most pressing questions about this crisis now.

Right off the bat, I’ll give you my shocking update on this great global war on the value of the dollar …

• The startling truth about America’s debt debacle: Why the real national debt is more than EIGHT TIMES GREATER than Washington claims … why the full weight of our debt addiction is beginning to hammer the dollar NOW … and why our leaders have no choice but to slash the dollar’s value in sheer self-defense.
• Global investors stampeding for the exits: Why the world’s governments, central banks, financial institutions and super-rich investors are fed up with Washington … why increasing numbers don’t want to touch the dollar with a ten-foot pole … and what they’re doing to protect themselves at YOUR expense.
• NEW demands to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency: What the news media isn’t telling you — and how global plans to stop using the U.S. dollar as a safe haven or for international trade will impact your buying power and standard of living.
• What’s the next shoe to drop in this great global war on the dollar? Could the G-20 be secretly scheming right now behind closed doors to accelerate the dollar’s plunge? (My answer is admittedly outrageous and has tremendous implications for your financial security!)
• Protect your wealth even as others are losing theirs: Critical steps you should be taking right now to protect yourself from this great dollar disaster. PLUS, the three investments that are most likely to preserve your wealth as the greenback continues to plunge in value worldwide.
• 7 investments set to skyrocket as the dollar sinks: These often-overlooked investments are the most profitable way I know to harness this massive, long-term dollar decline. I’ll show you what to buy … where to buy it … and when!

The Title:
Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar:
Protect Yourself and Profit

The Date:
Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Time:
2:00 PM, Eastern time
(11 AM Pacific, 7 PM GMT)

The Price:
FREE

FIRST, check your e-mail for the invitation I sent you earlier today, then click the link in that email to grab your FREE registration and to make sure you get your instructions for attending in time.

AND SECOND, click here, leave a comment and tell me what you’re most interested in hearing from me during this all-important online seminar. I’ll do my level best to make sure you get the answers you need!

Together, we can get you through this with your wealth intact and growing. You have my promise that, for our part, we will do everything possible to make sure you and your family are among the survivors and actually grow your wealth as this crisis continues to unfold.

Best wishes,

Larry Edelson

P.S. You have our permission to invite your family and friends to join us! Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar is being created as a major part of our commitment to help YOU protect yourself and profit in these treacherous times. But if you have friends or family you trust and who need help insulating themselves as the dollar declines, you have our permission to forward this invitation to them.

 

Larry Edelson
Financial Analyst
Larry Edelson, a financial analyst specializing in international macro-economics, and the precious metals and natural resources markets, is the editor of Weiss Research’s Resource Options Alert, Energy Windfall Trader, and the monthly newsletter Real Wealth Report.
Mr. Edelson is a co-editor of The Foundation Alliance as well as managing editor and a regular contributor to Weiss Research’s daily investment e-newsletter, Uncommon Wisdom.
Mr. Edelson also serves as an Executive Director of the prestigious Foundation for the Study of Cycles — a non-profit organization established 78 years ago at the behest of President Herbert Hoover and Edward R. Dewey, Hoover’s Chief Economic Analyst, to conduct ongoing research into the science of cycles, with an emphasis on economic cycles and the financial markets.

SC-IV – BATTLE FOR WORLDWIDE FINANCIAL SPHERE HEGMONY
PROPHECY

Or plausible consideration of cyclical relationships, and fractal repetition

If one embraces the notion that cycles exist within economies and financial markets, and that, progressions within cycles are fractal and of various size and degree, one must then conclude there is a dynamic level of general repetition continuously occurring across various timeframes.  The footprints of such fractal repetitions record themselves continuously via data points plotted across the axis of price and time.  They do so through recorded price chart data gathered throughout the course of history. 

Furthermore, if one successfully employs and relies upon the use of price chart data to detect various trends in current market behavior, one is also likely to consider the utility in comparing similar relationships of past price pattern behavior with those of the present.  Such endeavor provides a useful means by which to anticipate or narrow down a host of plausible future outcomes.

One such method is to employ the use of chart analogs that compare price behaviors of the past, which correspond best to those in the present.  Analog   an*a*log (noun) U.SCHEMISTRY A chemical with a similar structure to another but differing slightly in composition. Below is one such analog study of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The proprietary analog chart above correlates structure of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in relative percentage terms and price pattern behaviors from 1979 to present with those that had occurred in the 1913 through 1938 period.

One of the most compelling reasons for selecting the above data sets for analog comparison is the striking similarities in the parabolic 13-year advance from 1987 through 2000 when correlated with the eight-year parabola occurring in the 1921 through 1929 period. 

Additional structures of confluence are the timing of near identical troughs occurring in 2002 and 1932, and the twin peaks taking place in 2007 and 1937.  Lastly, we have compelling evidence of a correlating low in 2009 aligning itself with equal precision to the trough experienced in 1938.  Given each of the data sets relative properties, it is clear that each contains similar structures but differ slightly in their composition.

Specific Turn-Months and Wave Count Analogs
Rather than just the “years” in which such turns occurred in the past relative to the present, subscribers to our premium advisory services have access to the specific point-to-point turn-months currently under observation within our active analogs.  These proprietary analog charts zoom in from the key turn pivot at the March 2009 low, and compare the historical wave counts with modern-day counts, as the present thus far rhymes with the past in real time.

Does the above or any similar analog imply that peaks and troughs will continue to occur like clockwork going forward?  NO.  To prove this conclusively, all one need do is attempt to account for the five-years of difference between the 1987-2000 affair, with that of the 1921-1929 affair.  In the grand scheme of things, these two parabolic spikes in price are strikingly similar but differ slightly in composition, and also by a factor of five years.   

Further demonstrating structural similarities vs. any precision of exact repetition, is that despite sharing similar preceding structures, the rally from 2002 through 2007 registered a new all-time-high, while the broad rally from 1932 through 1937 did not.  Nonetheless, we perceive there to be critical value in observing cyclical outcomes of the past relative to those of similar construct occurring in the present.

A 2009 / 1929 Analog would warn of potential DISASTER Dead Ahead
We discussed this in a previous brief titled “Plausible Reality”.  If one were to align the initial 47% decline and subsequent 52% rally that took place in the 1929-1930 Dow with that of today’s similar 54%-decline and current Dow rally, which as of 22-September also rests 52% from its lows, one would then be prepared for a plausible WIPEOUT of approximately 89% in the next couple of years.  Again, our subscribers are privy to unfolding wave counts and the precise turn-month correlations residing in each of our proprietary analogs. 

Artificially Restrained From Natural Cleansing
A deep and thorough cleansing to the tune of 90% has been long overdue.  Our statist shepherds of illusion have continually intervened (at any cost) over past decades to avoid such healthy cleansings.  The further along they push the envelope of hubris, the higher the stakes become.  They are now well past the point of no return, and have in essence bet the entire sovereignty of the U.S on their ability to maintain US-centric monopoly control of the entire global financial sphere.  As matters continue to unwind in the fragile global rebalancing act forced upon them, they risk engendering a major revolution of one sort or another as a plausible outcome in the years and decades ahead.

The Grand Battle for Global Hegemony
In simplifying the grand scheme of things, the past 96-years of US-centric fiat dollar denominated global financial-sphere hegemony is duly under assault, and quite plausibly ending.  In viewing final segments of the parabola from the 1987 crash low, one can observe three battles for maintaining such control growing larger in scope as the 21st century dawns.  The first is barely visible occurring in 1998 with the LTCM collapse and Asian Currency Crisis.  The statists won that battle as evidenced by the run to fresh highs in 2000.  The second battle began following a more protracted threat after the dot.com crash and 911 attacks.  A bigger threat required a bigger response, and that is exactly what the statists delivered.  Centralized monetary authorities were again invincibly successful as evidenced in the recovery to fresh all time highs in October of 2007.

The panic of 2008 is the third and perhaps most devastating threat confronting the elite statist powers of the global financial sphere.  By all measure and account, their artificial ponzi-credit financial system of monopoly control failed completely.  Had they failed in executing the largest financial coupe in history to save their monopoly powers, the long overdue and much needed 90% percent cleansing was all but assured to unfold.  Following a most egregious bailout coupe, the central authorities and their brethren are thus far back in control of their legacy monopolies. 

In our view, they are now in the midst of an epic battle for their very survival and continued domination over the global financial sphere.  Invincible and resilient as their triumphs attest over the past 75-years, they are now ALL-IN on an all-or-nothing bet that they would prevail once again in maintaining legacy control of their inordinate monopolies of money and credit creation.

Only time will tell, and there is plenty of time ahead from which this epic battle will no doubt continue until its ultimate resolution.  We suspect that heightened conflicts and inflection points may occur into the 2012(13), 2021, and 2034 timeframes. 

At such future junctures, it is likely that the charts will reveal the level of success and/or failure that the current statist powers are able to impose upon the globe.  It is our hope that the ultimate prevailing outcome will adopt and enforce a free-market driven solution to replace the existing highly corrupt regime of elitist dominion over the global financial sphere.

Are you prepared to invest or trade amid such a potentially tumultuous long-term environment?  Rest assured that we are, so join us in our ongoing quest to journal, forecast, and trade the greatest events in financial history yet to unfold.

THE BOTTOM LINE…
For those who wish to obtain a visually graphic, easy to understand actionable guide to the various disciplines and real-time actions needed to achieve a broad array of objectives at every level of market engagement, look no further than Elliott Wave Technology’s  PLATINUM publication.  Those with a more narrow focus may select from the below list of PLATINUM’S three subsidiary sister publications.

Three Great Options:

GET ONE TODAY

1. The express focus of Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook is to provide equity index traders with actionable guidance over the near and medium term.

2. Our Position Traders Perspective provides actionable guidance for longer-term horizons.

3. EWT’s Day Traders Perspective assists short-term traders in executing proprietary methodology for capturing price moves of extremely short duration.

 

Until next time…

Trade Better / Invest Smarter…
Joseph Russo
Publisher & Chief Market Analyst
ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNOLOGY

What is the Elliott Wave Technology Website All About?

“THIS WEBSITE IS ABOUT BOOKING LONG AND SHORT-TERM PROFITS WHILE MINIMIZING RISK AND PRESERVING CAPITAL.”
It is about delivering knowledge and foresight. It is about empowering our Members. It is about fostering both the confidence and tenacity to swim with the sharks and beat them at their own game!

If you are looking for clear guidance in adopting and sticking with a solid long-term investment plan, Elliott Wave Technology will provide you with the best navigational tools to assure your long-term investment success!

If you are a speculative trader, and require an objective edge to balance and bolster your trading strategies, look no further. Elliott Wave Technology’s short-term market forecasting is non-biased, objective, to the point, and incredibly accurate!

We don’t make Money unless YOU MAKE MONEY!

We do not earn our keep selling financial products and earning commissions. What we are selling is steadfast and reliable GUIDANCE. Our job is to deliver a consistently accurate navigational road map to profits and risk aversion PERIOD! If we fail to deliver the goods, we are out of business!

We are prudent and conservative by nature. Therefore, if you are looking to get rich quick, earn 20% a month, or get “inside information” on the next hottest fund sector you are in the wrong place. As they say, we make money the old-fashioned way… we earn it!

Long-Term Investing requires knowledge, timing, and patience. We are neither “stock-pickers” nor “fund-timers” per se. We study the entire financial spectrum and invest in broad based funds and indices to capture the lion’s share of long-term secular trends.

We are all aware that hard-earned savings should be invested wisely, carefully monitored, and be repositioned periodically. Not many can honestly say that they take care of such important matters with the proper level of diligence however. It can be tedious and painstaking at times; however, “boots on the ground” is what is required to get the job done properly! Elliott Wave Technology is here to get the job done for you!

TRADERS AND SPECULATORS

For those who prudently speculate in the financial arena, there is no better trading partner than Elliott Wave Technology! EWT has a phenomenal record of accomplishment for calling short-term swings in the markets. Our guidance will tone down the noise, confusion, and blather from the multitude of self proclaimed market guru’s scattered about the Internet. The guidance we relay is guaranteed to be cohesive, consistent, focused, flexible, and objective.

We have mastered the art and science of reading chart patterns, indicators, Elliott Wave Theory, and price target projections. These vital technical tools in concert with our fundamental understanding of the market place and its inherent psychology, provide an edge far superior to that of any computer-trading software program.

Trader/Investor, or Analyst?

Elliott Wave Technology strongly endorses the distinct separation of roles between Analyst, and Trader/Investor.
Whereby tenacity may benefit a good analyst…. more on philosophy…
Integrity, and Disclosure:

As one might assume, the proprietors of Elliott Wave Technology do have personal funds which are invested in various segments of the financial markets. We do NOT however, trade such funds in and out of the markets on an intraday basis. Likewise, we do NOT trade our own funds at the minute, or minor degrees of trend. …more on philosophy…

Our unwavering commitment, sole dedication, and pure passion:

NO FEAR / NO GREED please…
Just the ART & SCIENCE thank you…
Odd as it may appear on the surface, we are motivated not by profit, but rather by the purity, elegance, and art of well constructed price charts which accurately frame and enable us to forecast future price direction. This is the sole essence of our PASSION. The chart is …. more on philosophy…
Elliott Wave Technology’s ongoing commitment to expansion of knowledge in the continual pursuit toward excellence:

Joseph Russo, presently the Publisher and Chief Market analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991 and currently maintains active member status in the “Market Technicians Association.” Joe continues to expand his body of knowledge through the MTA’s accredited CMT program.