Blue Skies Ahead

Posted by John Ross Crooks - Black Swan Capital LLC

Share on Facebook

Tweet on Twitter


Regular Guest on Money Talks, and one of  Michael Campbell’s favorites Jack Crooks of Black Swan Capital is offering Exclusively for readers and listeners of MoneyTalks a very SPECIAL OFFER. When looking at investments or the Economy – “Its all about the price of currencies” – Michael Campbell

Today’s Currency Currents below:

“Why then is Lehman’s failure perceived to be such a problem? The major complaint, and the only persuasive argument, is psychological, not technical: Markets expected the government to bail everybody out. Lehman’s failure made them reconsider whether the government would bail out Citigroup. If everyone expects the government to bail out, it has to do so to avoid a panic.” – John H. Cochrane

FX Trading – The Immortal Words of John H. Cochrane and Irving Berlin

Here we sit with nothing but blue skies ahead. Kind of reminds me of the popular song of the same name (I enjoy the Frank Sinatra and Willie Nelson versions of Blue Skies).

The blue days have come and gone. Nothing but blue skies for investors from now on.

Risk appetite is back with a vengeance; US stocks almost refuse to succumb to any pressure; commodities have found support despite the fact that global demand and international trade have not returned in any meaningful way; analysts are quick to tout the healing power of stimulus.


Source: Elliott Wave International – Cargo ships waiting for cargo article HERE

At this point, it doesn’t make sense to fight the tide of investor optimism. Any beachgoer hopefully knows you’ll drown if you try to swim against a rip current; and so it goes …

In spite of all the long-term global analysis we, and many others, point to indicating a serious potential for deflationary forces to smother recovery efforts, people are more than happy to swim against the global macro currents … because the safety and stability of the shore is so close they can practically touch it.

But if we and so many others are accurate in our broad analysis that leaves the door open for deflation and stagnation (at best), then why are investors not heeding the advice? What’s giving them confidence that they’re swimming in the right direction?

All questions we don’t necessarily know the answer to, but we’ll give it a try …

A loyal reader recently asked:

Is it possible that the U.S. government is encouraging a weak dollar (read devaluation) as a means of facilitating the repayment of the enormous national debt?

To it we say it’s absolutely possible and may be the policy.  A weak dollar policy they see as a way to boost global asset markets in an effort to drive demand on rising confidence.  It is a very dangerous game now, especially when there is no real growth opportunity in the US.  We think they think they can “manage” the dollar.  They can’t.  It may bite them, and us, in the process.

Jury is still out but possibilities rising. 

Also, think about how the wealth effect factors in …

Much wealth was lost from plummeting home prices and portfolio values. Perhaps a weak dollar policy, considering the tight correlation between the buck and risk appetite, is aimed at restoring some of the lost wealth via the stock market and, in effect, restoring confidence in the system.

Either way, we think Mr. Cochrane (in the quotable used above) made a good point, taken from his recent testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. He was discussing the perception of the Lehman Brothers failure; but I am referring to the perception of the global economy’s condition:

The rally in risk has been mostly psychological, not technical.

The widespread belief is that policymakers and leaders reacted quickly, that they played an integral role in stabilizing the economy in the wake of financial collapse. And perhaps more importantly, it is believed they are ready to pounce should any notable signs of a double-dip recession surface.

Perhaps, considering their save-the-day persona, we should call them superheroes; because if they’re anything like Barbara Boxer then they may be offended if we just call them policymakers.

Shall we join Mr. Irving Berlin for a few lines?

Never saw the sun shining so bright
Never saw things going so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you’re in love, my how they fly

I should care if the wind blows east or west
I should fret if the worst looks like the best
I should mind if they say it can’t be true
I should smile, that’s exactly what I do

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC


Exclusively for readers/listeners/members of MoneyTalks a very SPECIAL OFFER.

Three Full Months of EVERYTHING We Do For Just $99!

Dear MoneyTalks Reader/Listener,

Exclusively for fans of MoneyTalks with Michael Campbell, we’d like to make you an EXCLUSIVE OFFER.

Sign up now to receive 3-months of ALL our advisory trading services and we’ll discount the price by more than 80% – three full months for less than one month’s cost! Plus if you like what you see you’ll continue getting all our trading services at the discounted rate of just $99 per month for as long as you want.

You see, we recently segmented our all-in-one newsletter, Currency Strategist, into four brand new, separate, focused newsletters. As we launch we thought we’d extend an opportunity for you to get in early …

At a very special price.

Everything listed below for 3 months … for just a onetime payment of $99.00.

The value of all these services together is $2,434.00 per year … or about $200 per month. We’re offering you the opportunity to get three full months for just $99.

That’s a difference of over $500.00 for the first three months, and …

With this offer you lock in forever additional savings of more than $100 each and every month off the total value of these services for as long as you remain a member.

As a member you’ll receive…

Currency Currents
Description: Macro view of the global economy and how it may impact currency prices.
Frequency: Daily
Price: Free

Currency Investor

Description: Designed to help investors ride intermediate- and long-term trends in major and select emerging market currencies.
Frequency: Monthly
Recommendations: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) [*Analysis and time frames also support multi-currency deposit investors.]
Everyday Price: $149 per year

Currency Options
Description: Designed to provide speculators with trading recommendations covering both the FX options listed on the International Securities Exchange (ISE)and currency futures options listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Frequency: Bi-weekly
Average Holding Period: Days or Weeks to months
Recommendations: International Securities Exchange (ISE)-listed FX Options or Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)-listed currency futures options
Everyday Price: $595 per year

Emerging Market Currencies
Description: Designed to help traders and speculators exploit short- and intermediate-term trading opportunities in the highly volatile and potentially profitable world of emerging market currencies.
Frequency: Bi-weekly
Average Holding Period: Weeks to months
Recommendations: Spot Forex
Everyday Price: $695 per year

Forex & Currency Futures Description: Designed to help short-term traders, using high leverage, spot trading opportunities among major currency pairs and cross rates.
Frequency: Daily
Average Holding Period: Intraday to several days
Recommendations: Spot Forex and Currency Futures
Everyday Price: $89 per month or $995 per year

[Note: All services include Flash Alerts delivered outside of regular publication dates to enter or exit positions as the market dictates.]


As a fan of MoneyTalks, we’re offering you an outstanding deal.

Get three months of all our services for just a onetime payment of $99. That’s a savings of more than 83% on your first three months, and …

You lock in forever an additional savings of over 50% each and every month after that for as long as you remain a member.

Here’s some explanation on the different newsletters you’ll receive …

Our Emerging Market newsletter is geared towards specific emerging market commentary and takes time to evaluate individual countries and themes in depth. We will also recommend a balanced portfolio of currencies to hold as an emerging currency speculator.

In our Currency Options newsletter we are technical-minded, active, and a bit medium-term oriented … occasionally diverging from our longer-term fundamental market views. In addition to that, we incorporate a strict stop-loss guideline in our recommendations, usually around a 50-60% loss threshold, as well as a level at which to take partial profits. We believe this helps reduce the downside and allows for you to be more proactive in grabbing gains when you have them.

In the Forex & Currency Futures newsletter we are active and base most of our trade analysis on short-term technical setups — shooting to grab small open gains when we have them and keeping a skin in the game if we are fortunate to have latched on to a trend. That means you will consistently see recommendations to trade with at least two lots at a time. But remember: the size you trade and amount of leverage must make sense for your own account size and circumstances.

Within the monthly newsletter — Currency Investor — will reside the longer-term trend analysis work and thematic fundamental views incorporating a detailed look at weekly and monthly inter-market relationships between currencies, stocks, bonds and commodities.

Everything you read about above plus access to archives, webinar notifications, audio updates, special reports and more.

We work hard to consistently deliver, what we consider, the best currency trading newsletters available on the market today. We hope you’ll agree.

I urge you, if you were thinking about trading currencies, whether through options, ETFs, futures or Spot FX then don’t wait.

If you want an honest approach and a realistic look at currencies, you’ll have come to the right place.

If for any reason whatsoever you try us out and are unsatisfied with Black Swan’s currency newsletters within the first 30-days of your Membership, we’ll issue a full refund and our thanks for giving us a try.

Take advantage of this 30-day Risk Free offer!

So, if you’re ready to give us a try, Click Here to Sign Up

we’re looking forward to having you onboard with us!

P.S. As a BONUS, subscribe today and receive this 20-page Special Report:

Preparing for a Breakup in the European Monetary System

Most people are worried about the US dollar … and for good reason. These same people tend to see the euro as a real competitor vying for world reserve currency status. Many have been conditioned that way by the financial press. But we believe the risk of breakup in the European Monetary System is building rapidly. We examine the structure of this “artificial fiat currency” and why another downturn in the global economy could mean lights out for the euro. Be prepared.

Even if you decide to cancel, keep the report – it’s yours as a ‘thank you’ for giving us a try!

Even in tough times, which we recognize is on everyone’s mind these days, that’s a very reasonable price for the versatility and money-making potential packed into these newsletters. Of course, at a little over $3 per day you could instead put that money towards you’re morning cup of coffee on the way to work, I guess.

If you want to learn how to implement a solid approach to currency investing … or even if you’re just looking for well-researched trading and investing ideas …

I urge you to give us a try.


David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
Toll-Free 866.846.2672


Futures, Forex and Option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance either actual or hypothetical is not indicative of future performance.

Black Swan Capital newsletter services are strictly informational publications and do not provide individual, customized investment advice.  The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk.  Detailed disclaimer can be found at