Daily Updates
Uranium has been on the rebound. BNN speakss to Alka Singh, Managing Director and Senior Metals and Mining Analyst, Rodman & Renshaw, about what’s going on with this commodity and which companies to look out for.
The establishment argument against gold comes down to the statement that it is a collectable that earns no yield. Art, rare coins, stamps and gold and silver bullion do not earn a yield. Stocks, bonds and real estate earn yields, so the prudent investor should focus on these assets rather than gold or precious metals.
Stoneleigh and Max Keiser on Canadian Housing Bubble: “Expect Enormous Comeuppance, Tremendous Sense of Denial, Ireland-Like Dynamics, 90% Price Drops:
Interview Snips
- Canadian banks are not as “bulletproof” as everyone thinks.
- When the housing bubble bursts there will be tremendous consequences to Canadian banking system.
- We are in a massive bubble and there will be an enormous comeuppance.
- Canada housing bubble currently peaking.
- When you are in a bubble, the psychology is such that you cannot see it for what it is. Talking to Canadians about the housing bubble is like talking to Americans in 2006. There is a tremendous sense of denial.
- People pay 50-70% of their income for mortgage costs in places like Vancouver, but it’s not just Vancouver. Such things are absolutely characteristic of a bubble.
- Canada will play catch-up to the downside in the fairly near future.
- Ireland-like dynamics absolutely coming to Canada.
- There is also a tremendous commercial real estate problem that will affect Canadian banks.
- Canadian banks have also acted as reinsurers in the derivatives market for a number of extremely risky things. So in a number of cases “the bucks stops with the Canadian banks”.
- Real estate prices will fall about 90% on average. Deflationary credit collapse coming.
- “Stoneleigh” lives in Canada and is author of the popular Automatic Earth Blog. Also see Stoneleigh and Max Keiser Flatten the Canadian Economy
- I agree with everything “Stoneleigh” said in the above bullet point list except I do not see a price collapse of 90% on average. I think 50-60% in some areas is more like it. Even 40% would be devastating and that would be my best case scenario.
ED NOTE: Canadian Housing commentary starts at 14:00 Minute Mark.
Ed Note #2: Also bear in mind the analyst seems to think Canada’s rivers are going to dry up from Global Warming and we are an environmental wasteland with water wells in the west catching on fire and locals blowing up pipelines. Mike Shedlocks comments on the Housing market are certainly less extreme.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Ed Note: Advice and reasoning for selling for the The SP500 ETF, Oil ETF, Euro ETF (doomed) and an International ETF that doesn’t include Canada below! (should be sold before December 31st for Tax losses too)
Six ETFs to Consider Dumping Today
Happy Holidays! Many people have the last day of the year off, but not stock and ETF traders. Since 2011 New Year’s Day falls on a Saturday, the NYSE and other exchanges are open for a full day.
This is good news in one way: You have an extra trading session to get rid of some clutter in your portfolio and start the New Year fresh. Today I’m going to name six potential ETF sell candidates. You may be surprised at some of the names below. Read on …
Sell Candidate #1:
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
The time has come to sell SPY, the granddaddy of all ETFs, even though it may be the most liquid and heavily-traded security in the world.
Two other ETFs track the same index as SPY: iShares S&P 500 (IVV) and Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO). Are they any different? Yes, they are. Assuming you want to be in the S&P 500, here are three reasons to avoid SPY.
- At 0.09 percent, SPY’s expense ratio is 50 percent higher than VOO, which charges only 0.06 percent. Vanguard is rarely undersold on fees!
- VOO can be traded commission-free at Vanguard’s brokerage arm, while IVV has no transaction fee for Fidelity customers. Currently no major brokerage firm offers a fee-free trading program for SPY.
- The real kicker is dividend payments. Few investors realize it, but SPY can take more than a month to deliver your quarterly dividend check. IVV and VOO both manage to pay out dividends in a week or less.
If you are a day trader, the liquidity of SPY may outweigh these negatives, but for most investors VOO and IVV are better choices.
Sell Candidate #2:
Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP)
As I’ve said before, master limited partnerships, or MLPs, are often a great investment. They typically have high dividend yields and have generated significant capital gains the past few years.
So what’s the problem with AMLP?
Well, it is the only ETF on the market that is not a pass-through entity for tax purposes. AMLP is structured as a C corporation, which means it pays 35 percent federal taxes plus various state taxes on all its gains. The roughly 1,000 other ETFs and ETNs pay none.
The result: AMLP significantly underperforms its competition and its benchmark.
The impact of “tax drag” on this fund is staggering …
The sponsor handles it by clipping off about 37 percent of each day’s price move, leaving investors with only 63 percent. Investors may also be slammed with additional taxes when they sell their AMLP shares.
While there is no perfect way to access MLPs with exchange-traded products, the way AMLP does it is unquestionably the worst.
Sell Candidate #3:
iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA)
If SPY is the granddaddy of all ETFs, then EFA is certainly the standard-bearer for international investing. Unfortunately, EFA is based on a seriously flawed benchmark…
The MSCI Europe, Australasia and Far East (EAFE) Index is thought to cover the world’s equity markets outside the U.S. In fact, it does nothing of the sort!
For one thing, the EAFE overlooks Canada — the third largest non-U.S. market in the world. Furthermore, the EAFE has zero allocation to emerging markets like China. All told, the EAFE Index and EFA cover less than 70 percent of the non-U.S. markets.
If you want complete international exposure with just one ETF, I think you are better off with Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-U.S. (VEU).
Sell Candidate #4:
Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV)
In bond terminology “duration” measures a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rates. EDV has an extra-large “extended” duration of 27.8, which means it can lose about 27.8 percent of its value for every 1 percent increase in long-term interest rates. This makes EDV the highest-risk Treasury ETF that does not use leverage.
Of course, this also means EDV stands to gain if long-term rates should go down. But with Ben Bernanke keeping the monetary fire hose on full blast, there isn’t a lot of room for rates to drop. Hence I think the risk of EDV far outweighs the upside potential.
Sell Candidate #5:
United States Oil Fund (USO)
Despite what its name implies, this fund does not track the price of crude oil. USO is 100 percent invested in “front month” oil futures and must therefore roll over 100 percent of its assets each and every month. With oil markets currently in contango (i.e. prices are higher as you go out in time), USO loses money every time it rolls the portfolio.
Unfortunately, no other exchange-traded products can accurately track crude oil prices, either.
One alternative to consider is the United States 12-Month Oil Fund (USL). This fund keeps one-twelfth of its portfolio in each of the next twelve months of crude oil futures. USL is still affected by the negative roll yield, but only 8.3 percent of the portfolio gets hit each month, not 100 percent as in USO.
Sell Candidate #6:
CurrencyShares Euro (FXE)
Some of my friends across the pond may not like hearing this, but I am afraid the euro is doomed. It was never a good idea in the first place: Monetary union without political union is just unworkable. Europe is learning this the hard way as Greece, Ireland and other weak links force the healthier economies to pay for bailouts.
Eventually the Europeans will get this all sorted out. My guess is it will end with either a politically unified continent or a return to individual national currencies.
In either case, there is no reason to go out of your way to get exposure to the euro with an ETF like FXE.
Only Two Days Left to
Sell Your Losers
You’ll notice that the ETFs I’ve named are not obscure. All are very popular, in fact. That doesn’t make them good products or good investments. If you own any of these in a taxable account and you’re sitting on an unrealized loss, you have today and tomorrow to sell and get that loss on your 2010 tax return.
Happy New Year!
Ron
P.S. This week on Money and Markets TV, we take a look back some of the biggest market-moving stories of 2010. And we’ll give you practical advice for protecting your money and turning a profit in any market condition.
So be sure to tune in tonight, December 30, at 7 P.M. Eastern time (4:00 P.M. Pacific).
Simply go to www.weissmoneynetwork.com and follow the on-screen instructions. Access is free and no registration is required.
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
[Editor’s Note: This special report on the technology sector is part of Money Morning’s annual “Outlook” series, which is forecasting the prospects for commodities, U.S. stocks and other top profit opportunities in the New Year. Make sure to watch for upcoming installments in the days to come. Click on the “Outlook 2011” logo to see past installments.]
Tech Stocks Set To Soar in 2011 as a New Era of Personal Computing Dawns
Technology companies, and tech stocks, started a revival in 2010 and are heading toward an even more profitable 2011. That’s because a new age of computing – one that prioritizes mobility and efficiency – has dawned in the computing world.
Indeed, we’ve entered what researching firm International Data Corporation (IDC) calls a “new era” of computer usage.
Roughly half of all regular Internet users in 2011 will use non-PC devices, according to IDC, which says a trend becomes mainstream when it constitutes more than 15% of the market.
Just as the smaller PCs of the 1980s supplanted the lumbering terminals of the 1960s, PCs are being replaced by a variety of hand-held devices – like Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone and iPad and Research in Motion Ltd.’s (Nasdaq: RIMM) Blackberry.
“The PC-centric era is over,” IDC said in its annual report, released in November.
The firm predicts 330 million smartphones will be sold worldwide next year along with 42 million media tablets.
….read more HERE