Daily Updates
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The pieces of the unending puzzle are coming together in the silver advance. Silver made another new weekly high close at $35.83 on Friday. It was the only commodity to do so. The daily ratio of Silver to Gold produced an overbought reading of 80 in the RSI(14); indicative of a price high in silver within three weeks. The weekly chart of Silver produced an upside Exhaustion Alert, common within the last one to five weeks of intermediate rallies. The US Dollar Index has a weekly Sequential Buy Setup, seen around interim lows in the currency and around interim highs in Silver.
The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that hit Japan this past week and the destruction that it caused is nothing compared to the tsunami of inflation that will soon hit the U.S. as a result of this crisis. A tsunami of inflation in the U.S. will mean a complete collapse of our monetary system, which could lead to millions of deaths due to a lack of food and heat. 44 million Americans are now dependent on food stamps, but when the U.S. dollar becomes worthless as a result of hyperinflation, the government will no longer have the power to support these Americans and many of them will simply starve to death.
Japan’s citizens were smart enough to save up $885.9 billion in U.S. treasuries to spend in a situation like it finds itself in today. The U.S. has no such savings and is the world’s largest debtor nation. Our ability to survive depends on our ability to print money that has purchasing power. The only reason the U.S. dollar still has purchasing power is the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
All Japan has to do is sell their U.S. treasuries and they will have the financial resources necessary to rebuild the parts of their country that were destroyed by this past week’s disaster. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday that he doesn’t think Japan will unload their $885.9 billion in U.S. treasuries. It remains to be seen if Japan will do the right thing and sell their U.S. treasuries or if they will make the mistake of continuing to artificially prop up the U.S. economy.
The Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) in recent days has already been repeating many of the same mistakes the Federal Reserve made in the U.S. After this past week’s disaster, the BOJ printed hundreds of billions of dollars worth of yen in an attempt to prop up their financial markets. Japan’s central bank should be raising interest rates, which would encourage its citizens to increase their savings so that they have more resources to rebuild their country and invest into the production of clean energy. By printing trillions of yen out of thin air, the BOJ will cause prices to rise for the very building materials the Japanese need to purchase in order to rebuild.
Although the yen has been rising in recent days, it would be strengthening a lot more if it wasn’t for the BOJ’s actions. In fact, NIA believes that while the yen may continue to rise in the short-term, the yen is now likely to lose a substantial amount of its purchasing power over the long-term. Instead of allowing the yen to strengthen so that it is cheaper for the Japanese in import copper, iron, steel, oil, natural gas, and other commodities needed to rebuild, the BOJ’s actions are actually hurting the Japanese and having the effect of propping up the U.S. economy in the short-term.
The mainstream media frequently talks about Japan’s national debt and how it is 225% of their GDP. However, Japan owes most of their national debt to themselves. We have a much worse national debt crisis here in the U.S., where we owe half of our debt to foreigners. Not only that, but once you include America’s unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, along with its debts for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which are now government backed entities), total U.S. debt obligations now exceed $76 trillion.
The Japanese economy reached peak consumer spending in 1990 and entered their “Lost Decade” of deflation with a balanced budget, high savings rate of 15%, low unemployment rate of 2%, and a net debt to GDP ratio of less than 20%. The average American peaks in spending at age 46 and the last babyboomer just turned 46 in 2010. This means the U.S. economy just passed peak consumer spending, similar to Japan in 1990. Instead of entering this decade from a position of strength, the U.S. has entered it with a real budget deficit of $4.3 trillion, a savings rate of only 4%, a real unemployment rate of 22%, and total debt obligations that are 5 times higher than GDP. We won’t be so lucky to escape this decade with deflation, but will instead be faced with hyperinflation as the world loses confidence in the U.S. dollar and rushes to dump their dollar-denominated assets.
When Japan comes to their senses and realizes just how dire the fiscal situation is in the U.S., they will realize that they are much better off investing into their own economy and abandoning the U.S. economy. Just the fact that Geithner is now saying that he doesn’t expect Japan to dump their U.S. treasuries, illustrates just how nervous the U.S. government is about the U.S. dollar and how devastating it would be for all Americans if the Japanese did dump their treasuries. No amount of tax increases and spending decreases will ever allow the U.S. to balance its budget. All the U.S. government can do is talk up a strong U.S. dollar, because they have absolutely no real way to keep it propped up.
All NIA members know that Geithner is perhaps the biggest liar in the U.S. government today. Geithner has long said that the U.S. will not monetize its debt, yet the Federal Reserve is now the buyer of 70% of U.S. treasuries being sold. Foreign central bank purchases of U.S. treasuries have fallen from 50% down to 30%. The days of the U.S. exporting its inflation to the rest of the world are now over.
The U.S. just reported a record budget deficit last month of $222.5 billion, a bigger deficit than the entire year of 2007. Up until today, the U.S. has been paying off its debts plus interest by selling larger amounts of U.S. treasuries to new buyers. This is effectively a ponzi scheme, although the U.S. government will never admit it. Even if Japan doesn’t sell the U.S. treasuries they already own, that won’t be enough for the U.S. to keep this ponzi scheme going. The U.S. needs Japan to keep buying U.S. treasuries, but not only that, they need Japan to buy larger amounts of U.S. treasuries than ever before. The odds of Japan increasing their U.S. treasury purchases during this time of crisis are close to zero, they simply don’t have the financial means to do so.
If Japan doesn’t step up its U.S. treasury purchases, who will pick up the slack, China? Geithner infuriated China last year by calling them currency manipulators and since then, China has been rapidly expanding the yuan’s use in cross border transactions and is now setting up the yuan to be the world’s next reserve currency. NIA believes China is likely to stop buying U.S. treasuries, and will instead loan money to Japan to help in their rebuilding efforts.
It is unbelievable just how many of the economists featured by the mainstream media are calling the disaster in Japan a “stimulus” for not only the Japanese economy, but also the U.S. economy. When a country is forced to rebuild an asset that it already had, it is not stimulating the economy, but is spending resources that could have went towards increasing the production of goods and services. When Japan is eventually finished rebuilding the parts of the country that were devastated this past week, the country isn’t going to be better off than they were before the crisis. They will likely be even more deeply in debt, with less foreign currency reserves, and a much larger money supply. The Nikkei will likely be a lot higher than it is today due to inflation, but the yen will be worth a lot less and the Japanese will be far less wealthy as a result.
America has nothing to benefit from Japan’s rebuilding efforts. Most of the commodities that Japan will import as part of their rebuilding efforts will likely come from Australia, China, and even Canada, with very little of it coming from the U.S. All of the fear and uncertainty in the world today is not going to cause another rush into the U.S. dollar like there was in 2008. When the world dumps risky assets in uncertain situations, the U.S. dollar is going to become one of the risky assets that it dumps. With all of the world’s central banks now fixated on printing money in order to “solve” any short-term economic problems, gold and silver will be the new beneficiaries of all safe haven buying during times of crisis. Don’t let yesterday’s dip in gold and silver fool you. Precious metals were due for a dip and would have sold off no matter what. Now is the time to load up with precious metals before the Federal Reserve begins dropping hints of QE3.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
It continues to be hard to focus on markets with all the suffering from Japan shown everywhere. Americans have much to learn from how Japan as a society acts in horrific times. I’m afraid we won’t come remotely close when you know what hits the fan here and sticks.
I’ve long spoken about the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd that reigns on Wall Street and many within the media that reports (and makes their living off it) on it. They were out in full force on TOUT-TV and wherever they could be heard, telling how this tragedy shouldn’t have any lasting effect on our stock market and how well it has done given the news. I would fully expect if Japan was literally wiped out, one of these “Talking Heads” would come on and claim it’s bullish since now they can’t sell their U.S. debt and their debt couldn’t be paid. The events in Japan are going to have long lasting, mostly negative implications whether there’s a real nuclear meltdown or not.
Based on the U.S. close and the big bounce underway in Japan as I type, we can see U.S. stocks rise sharply at least at the outset tomorrow. There’s been serious technical damage to the market. I also urge you to watch this video and the notation of record complacency that’s a screaming bearish indicator.
I would use any strong rallies to build up a chicken coup. As bad as Japan is at the moment, the knockout punch IMHO is going to be more and sustained troubles in the Middle East coming back into the headlines, and the belief of a day of reckoning coming to the U.S. begins to catch on in earnest.
It’s tempting to go short U.S. bonds here but I sooner just continue to avoid them, period.
Look for gold and silver to bounce back in fairly short order. The usual geopolitical concerns are likely to get an added push with the U.S. Dollar breaking down. It should have flew but didn’t.

I’ve written for weeks now about a day of reckoning coming to America. Like Jesus says in the Bible, only the Father knows when He’s coming again and we shouldn’t waste time speculating on End Times. I don’t know the year or day when America finally begins to pay in earnest and am not trying to time it. However, much of the evidence has been shared by me and others. Below is taken from an excellent piece from The Gathering Storm:
- The two and one half years since September 2008 have set the stage for a far worse catastrophe. The Obama administration jammed an $800 billion pork-filled stimulus bill down the throats of America, along with home buyer tax credits, loan modification programs, and a healthcare plan that will crush small businesses. The politicians, government bureaucrats, and mainstream media corporate mouthpieces proclaim that their wise and prompt actions averted a Second Great Depression. The government solutions used to “stabilize” the situation have wrought unintended consequences and planted the seeds of further pain and suffering to come. A summary of what has happened in the last few years is in order:
- On September 18, 2008, the National Debt stood at $9.66 trillion. Today it stands at $14.16 trillion, a 47% increase in 2 1/2 years.
- The country is running $1.5 trillion annual deficits and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
- The States are running cumulative budget deficits of $130 billion in FY11 and expect deficits of $112 billion in FY12. This is leading to conflicts with unions, higher taxes and mass layoffs of government workers.
- The working age population has risen by 5 million, while the number of employed Americans has declined by 6.5 million. The true unemployment rate http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts has risen from 12% to 22%.
- In September 2008, there were 30.8 million Americans on food stamps. Today there are 44 million Americans on food stamps (14% of the U.S. population), a 43% increase in 2 1/2 years. The annual cost has risen by $37 billion, a 100% increase in 2 1/2 years.
- Real inflation http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts bottomed at 5% in early 2009, but has accelerated to 9% today, with further increases baked in the cake.
- Gasoline prices bottomed out at $1.61 per gallon in January 2009 and have risen to $3.54 per gallon today, a 120% increase in just over two years.
- Households have lost $6.3 trillion of real estate-related wealth since the peak of the housing market. Home prices have fallen for six straight months.
- Almost 3 million homes have been lost to foreclosure since 2007.
- There are 11.1 million households, or 23.1% of all mortgaged homes, underwater on their mortgages today, with rates above 50% in Nevada, Arizona, California, and Michigan.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the US government and have lost $170 billion of taxpayer funds so far. Losses are expected to reach $400 billion. Along with the FHA, they continue to prop up a dead housing market with more bad loans.
- The Federal Reserve balance sheet in September 2008 consisted of $895 billion of US Treasury bonds. Today it totals $2.55 trillion of toxic mortgages bought from Wall Street banks and Treasury bonds being bought under QE2.
- The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Dept. intimidated the FASB into allowing Wall Street banks to account for worthless mortgage and real estate loans as fully collectible. Magically, insolvent banks became solvent – on paper.
- The Dow Jones was 11,700 in late August 2008 and today stands at 12,000. The Dow has risen 84% from its March 2009 low. The top 1% wealthiest Americans own 40% of all the stocks in America, so they are feeling much better.
- In late 2007, a risk-averse senior citizen could get a 5% return on a 6-month CD. Today, after two years of no increases in their Social Security payments, a senior citizen can “earn” .38% on a 6-month CD.
- The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0% in order to allow the Wall Street banks to borrow for free and earn billions without risk.
- Over 300 smaller banks have been closed by the FDIC, with losses exceeding $50 billion. There are another 900 banks on the verge of insolvency, with estimated future losses of $100 billion.
- The Federal Reserve initiated QE2 in November 2010, purchasing $70 billion per month of Treasury bonds and attempting to create a stock market rally. They have succeeded in creating a tsunami of energy, food, and commodity price inflation across the globe, sparking revolutions among the desperately poor in the Middle East.
- Wall Street banks “earned” record profits of $19 billion in 2010 after nearly destroying the worldwide financial system in 2008 and raping the American taxpayer in 2009.
- No Wall Street executive has been prosecuted for the fraudulent actions committed by their banks.
- Wall Street banks handed out $43.3 billion in bonuses in 2009/2010 for a job well done. The average Wall Street employee received a $128,000 bonus in 2010. In 2008, the year they crashed the financial system, they still doled out $17.6 billion in bonuses.
- The median household income in 2007 was $52,163. Today the median household income is $46,326, an 11% decline in three years. Real average weekly earnings are lower today than they were in 1971.
- It is clear from the list above that the oligarchic players that wield the power in this country have chosen to prop up their tottering structure of debt-created-wealth on the backs of the working middle class. The people who have been screwed and continue to be screwed are growing angry and distrustful, as anticipated by Strauss & Howe:
“But as the Crisis mood congeals, people will come to the jarring realization that they have grown helplessly dependent on a teetering edifice of anonymous transactions and paper guarantees. Many Americans won’t know where their savings are, who their employer is, what their pension is, or how their government works. The era will have left the financial world arbitraged and tentacled: Debtors won’t know who holds their notes, homeowners who owns their mortgages, and shareholders who runs their equities – and vice versa.”
The “Other” Yield You Should Pay Attention To…