SIGNS OF THE TIMES:

“Gold to Reach $5000 Due to Supply Shortages”

“Exhaustive report by Standard Chartered rests upon ‘central banks have turned from being net sellers to net buyers of gold.'”

– CNBC, June 14, 2011

It took a long time for commonsense to overwhelm book-learning. Central banks becoming net buyers is an important and practical step away from financial demagoguery.

Standard Chartered is a big and diverse bank and their research department should be complemented for such a bold conclusion. However, we could not endorse the price target as it is based upon fundamental analysis of supply and demand, which in any metal is often treacherous.

Typically gold’s real price, as determined by a reliable consumer price index sets a significant low in the year a great financial mania concludes. This time around, the reversal occurred in May 2007. As we calculate it, our Gold/Commodities set a low of 143. On the first post-bubble recession this soared to 518 and represented an increase in operating margins for gold producers.

Then with the first business expansion this turned down as commodities enjoyed a cyclical move that ended with a mania. Gold’s real price slumped to 303 early in the year and in setting the uptrend in mid-April anticipated the selloff of stocks and commodities.

Quite likely, this is on a cyclical increase as the global economy enters a cyclical recession.

One of the features of the post-bubble world is weak recoveries and severe recessions. Even mainstream economists recognized that the last recession was the worst since the early 1930s.

Gold’s real price is anticipating the start of a recession and so is the dramatic reversal in silver prices relative to gold. The latter is a very old indicator of an important change in financial markets. Just as old and reliable as the recent reversal from narrowing credit spreads to widening.

Typically, post-bubble contractions have prevailed for some twenty years as gold’s real price improved. This has made gold mining the premier industry as orthodox business and industry suffer chronic pricing pressures.

Gold’s nominal price is of interest to traders, some of whom are positioning to “punish” the corrupt Federal Reserve System. Serious investors know the importance of gold’s real price.

Every bull market climbs a wall of worry and then in a rush of confidence leaps over – only to find Murphy waiting.

Murphy’s Law states “What can go wrong will go wrong”, and while Murphy has been reliable, unless he was an historian he could not imagine the distress of a post-bubble contraction.

* * * * *

What’s Next?

The possibility of a rebound showed best in the S&P. Two weeks ago this page noted that if the stock market remained down for a week, a Capitulation would register. We also had a target of 1250 and Thursday’s low was 1258 – close enough.

Monday’s ChartWorks reviewed the “Springboard” pattern, which usually indicates a good relief rally. This is working out and as it improves it could provide relief to base metals as well.

This could run for some weeks and generate some overbought conditions.

Excessive speculation was expected to complete in April and fail. Financial markets would rebound and then likely churn around through the summer.

May’s reversal in corporate spreads has become impressive enough to indicate further widening in September. This sector could also churn around through the summer.

Our Momentum Peak Forecaster has again earned a lot of confidence. In early December this indicated that a significant rush of speculation was building. In January it signaled that it could complete in March-April.

When the big action focuses upon commodities as in 1973 and in 1980 the signal has been close to the beginning of a recession.

Economic numbers and widening credit spreads seem to be confirming this melancholy possibility.

Instituitional Advisors

THURSDAY, JUNE 30, 2011

BOB HOYE

PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

The Above is part of Quick Pivot that was

published for our subscribers June 22, 2011.

Link to June 24 ‘Bob and Phil Show’ on Howestreet.com:

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/06/goldman-sachs-murphy/

BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

E-MAIL bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com

WEBSITE: www.institutionaladvisors.com

The ETF revolution allows everyday investors to achieve the impossible. Just a few short years ago, short-selling, leverage, spreads, and commodities were practical only for the Wall Street insiders. Now, with ETFs, anyone can play.

Yet availability doesn’t guarantee success. You have new opportunities, yes, but they all have risks. You need to know what can go wrong and be ready for it — before you place an ETF order.

Lately I’ve received many questions about inverse ETFs, which are designed to go up when the indexes they track go down. With markets volatile, the economy sputtering, and a global debt crisis all over the headlines, now may be a great time to consider trading on the short side.

But inverse ETFs carry some unique risks. And today I’ll talk about three you may not have considered.

Inverse ETF Risk #1:
Bad Timing

This one may go without saying, but I’ll say it anyway. You don’t want to buy an inverse ETF (or make any kind of short sale) unless you are very confident your target market is heading down soon. Timing your entry and exit is critical.

But inverse ETFs carry some unique risks. And today I’ll talk about three you may not have considered.

Inverse ETF Risk #2:
Holding Too Long

Many inverse ETFs include a built-in leverage factor. The intent is to amplify your gains by 2X or 3X. Sounds great, right? Go 3X short and a 5 percent drop for the market turns into a 15 percent gain for you, right?

Not exactly. In most cases, the leverage factor is reset every day. This means that, over time, the value of your shares can drift down even if the market moves in your favor!

I explained this just last month in What Silver’s Recent Plunge Teaches Us about Leveraged ETFs. And for more details and examples, see my 2009 column Understanding Leveraged ETFs.

The bottom line: Leveraged and inverse ETFs are intended for quick strikes. Get in and get back out as soon as possible. If you make a mistake, admit it. Don’t just sit there and hope for a recovery.

[Money & Markets Editor’s note: For clear, concise alerts on when to get into a position — and when to get out — you should check out Ron’s International ETF Trader service.]

Inverse ETF Risk #3:
Derivative Exposure

Inverse ETFs employ various techniques to get the correct market exposure. In many cases they include derivatives like futures, options, and swaps.

The main concern in derivatives is “counterparty risk.” These instruments are nothing more than legal agreements in which two parties agree to do specific things in specific circumstances. One party is you — or really the ETF manager, acting on your behalf.

In the case of an inverse ETF, the counterparty agrees to pay your ETF if the selected benchmark goes down. Likewise, the ETF will pay the counterparty if the selected benchmark goes up. Counterparty risk is the possibility the other side won’t make good on their bet.

Most inverse ETFs achieve their desired exposure by holding swaps. And it is important to note here, that swaps typically involve only the gains and losses in an index, not the base value of the index itself.

For example, if an index has a starting value of 100 and moves 2 percent, the swap only covers the 2 percent move (4 percent if it happens to be a 2x fund).

If the counterparty were to default, the ETF might not be able to collect on the 2 percent or 4 percent gain, but it would still have the initial cash representing the original index value of 100. This example is oversimplified of course, but I think you get the idea.

Counterparty risk isn’t unique to derivatives contracts. When you buy a plane ticket, for instance, you agree to give the airline a certain amount of money. They agree to have a seat available for you on a plane going to your destination at a defined date and time.

If you don’t pay for your ticket, or the plane takes you to the wrong city, then it is a form of “counterparty default.”

Defaults on equity swaps are very rare, but there is always the possibility that it could happen. This is one factor to consider when deciding whether an inverse ETF is what you need.

Every ETF has a prospectus with detailed information on its characteristics, fees, and risks. Always read it before you invest a dime. You can find it on the sponsor’s website. If you don’t understand something, get clarification from a reliable source.

Best wishes,

Ron

Ron Rowland is widely regarded as a leading ETF and mutual fund advisor. You may have read about Mr. Rowland and his strategies in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Investor’s Business Daily, Forbes.com, Barron’s, Hulbert Financial Digest and many more. As a former mutual fund manager from 2000 to 2002, Ron was a pioneer in using ETFs inside of mutual funds. Today, he is the editor of International ETF Trader, dedicated to helping investors use ETFs to profit from ever-changing global market conditions.