The STORM is PASSING

Posted by Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters

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Richard Russell 06/29/11: The deed is done. The Dow broke out above its June peak, thereby confirming the previous breakout of the Trannies. My PTI ended up 6 to 6302, leaving it bullish by 34 points. As for NYSE internals, 2093 issues ended higher, and 904 ended lower. There were 80 new highs and 13 new lows. UP volume was 80% of up +down volume. That’s two 80% up-days in a row with the Dow confirming, which adds up to excellent action and most probably a higher market. At any rate, that’s the way I read ’em.

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Richard Russell 06/28/11: The Dow Theory makes note of the action of three items, (1) the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, (2) the D-J Transportation Average, (3) the daily volume of transactions on the NYSE.

True, I watch many other indicators, some of them helpful and some of them annoyingly deceptive. The secret of technical analysis is “what to keep and what to throw out.”

We already know that the Transports have been strong, and their strength seems to be transferring over to the Industrials. Below we see the Dow, up 112 points as I write), rallying off the recent June 15 low of 11862. The upside target is the little June 21 peak of 12217 (blue horizontal line). The question I ask is — “Is the market “playing with us” as if has been doing for months or are we going to make some real progress?” Real progress would entail the Dow rallying above 12217 and then climbing back above its 50-day moving average (which stands at 12367).

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Now study the Transports over the same period. Here we see the Transports well off their June lows, and not even close to breaking down. Thus we have new lows for the move in the Dow with the Transports not close to confirming. This non-confirmation on the part of the Transports sets the stage for a rally, a rally which started yesterday and continues today. The question, of course, is whether the rally has legs.

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From Peter Brimelow of Marketwatch:

Another down week, but now even permabears think the storm may be passing.

Two weeks ago, these letters had real fear of another 2008-style Crash ( See June 6 column. ) They’re still not happy, but they’re impressed that the world has not ended.

Dow Theory Letters’ Richard Russell wrote on Friday morning: “From a Dow Theory standpoint, I thought the action of the Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT +0.45% was significant. Not only did the Transports refuse to follow the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.60% down, but the Transports actually rallied. …Thus, the Transports are giving the lie to the frightening performance of the Industrials.”

Even after Friday’s bad break, he merely wrote: “Dow at new low for the move, unconfirmed by the Transports. … I’m keeping my eyes on those March lows. One or the other (Industrials or Transports) better hold.”

….read more of Brimlow’s article HERE