Ed Note Sunday Evening: Washington reaches a deal to raise the Debt Ceiling, no taxes and basically no significant spending cuts.

Perhaps the debt ceiling should be renamed the “national debt target,” for it seems Washington is always trying to reach it. One could say it’s their only reliable, time-tested achievement. And without fail, upon reaching their national debt target, they promptly extend it further in order to discover how quickly it can once again be attained!

While I have little doubt that the ceiling will be raised, my readers have been curious as to the implications for gold in each of the debt and “default” scenarios possible after August 2nd. This month, I’ll outline how each outcome could affect the price of gold and silver.

BEARISH GOLD CASE #1: DEBT CEILING NOT RAISED – ENOUGH CUTS MADE TO AVERT DEFAULT

My readers know that this scenario is actually what the US government should do. The debt ceiling should not be increased and massive cuts must be made. We know this outcome is extremely unlikely – it would require not only a resolute steadfastness to sound money, but also a 180-degree change of philosophical beliefs by the majority of Congress (and the American public) overnight.

Yet in our fantasy world, if this did occur, it would be bearish for gold. It would mean the US government was shrinking, that debts were being paid, that the entire US economy was becoming more solvent and viable. Gold would be less important to own, as the risk of both currency crises and sovereign debt crises would be lower.

BEARISH GOLD CASE #2: DEBT CEILING RAISED – FEDERAL BUDGET BALANCED

If the debt ceiling is raised in order to avert imminent default, but the spare time is used to truly bring the federal budget into balance, the US economy might still be saved. But when I say “balanced,” I mean it. This would mean not only eliminating the entire $1.5 trillion deficit, but also leaving enough of a surplus to cover all outstanding debt and unfunded liabilities. For perspective, Senator Rand Paul’s proposal to but $500 billion a year, widely considered more radical than landing a man on Mars, would only address 1/3 of the annual deficit – it would take cuts many times that for the US to return to solvency.

But let’s be optimistic: if the budget could be balanced, then the fact that the debt ceiling was being increased yet again would not be so awful. Since the US government’s fiscal policies would be completely reversed, we could expect to start seeing a strengthening of the dollar (so long as Bernanke stopped the printing presses too) and a weakening of gold and silver.

However, this is just as much of a pipe dream as the first scenario. No government in history has dug itself out of the hole we now face without defaulting. If Congress even tried to enact a plan like this, people would be rioting in the streets over their lost entitlements. And we’d suddenly have millions of unemployed soldiers. Not exactly a recipe for peace and prosperity.

BULLISH GOLD CASE #1: DEBT CEILING NOT RAISED – US DEFAULTS ON TREASURY DEBT

This is the scenario that President Obama and Secretary Geithner are threatening. They claim that if the debt ceiling is not raised, they will have to immediately begin defaulting on Treasury interest payments. This is rather unlikely, as interest payments make up only 10% of spending, but let’s say they stop paying anyway.

If they do this, market interest rates for US debt would skyrocket, meaning the only buyer left at rates the Treasury could afford would be the Fed. In other words, if they default on August 2nd, QE3 will start on August 3rd. Of course, a default would be absolutely devastating to the dollar and a boon for gold and silver. Global confidence in the invincibility of the United States would be shattered, and the underlying problem of excessive spending would still remain to be addressed.

Another interesting scenario would be if Congress didn’t raise the debt ceiling and the Treasury just kept borrowing anyway. It’s not like the Executive Branch follows laws scrupulously nowadays. What if they just ignored it? Someone could challenge the act in federal courts, but the odds are often in the President’s favor. In this case, gold and silver might experience less of an initial spike, but their long-term prospects would be elevated as the world recognized that we were one step closer to becoming a banana republic.

BULLISH GOLD CASE #2: DEBT CEILING RAISED – SYMBOLIC CUTS IN SPENDING

This scenario is by far the most likely outcome of the debt talks in Washington; they will raise the debt ceiling and make spending cuts which sound substantial, but which only mange to slow the accumulation of new debt.

The plans on the table suggest cutting a couple trillion in cumulative spending over the next decade. In other words, they propose cuts that only reduce deficits by about 10-20%; they do nothing to reduce actual debt levels. So if these talks are successful, then instead of a $1.5 trillion deficit each year, perhaps we only suffer a $1.2 trillion deficit. Meanwhile, the debt continues growing. This is “success” in Washington.

Clearly, this is bullish for precious metals. It means more of the same – more spending, more debt, and necessarily more money-printing.

THE EMPIRE HAS NO CEILING

Over the past 50 years, the US debt ceiling has been raised over 70 times. In other words, there is no ceiling at all – it is as fictitious as the idea that central planning works, or that the US has anything resembling a “free market.”

So, I guess it stands to reason that regardless of the debt ceiling increase, it is likely that the US will be downgraded by one or more ratings agencies. The effect will be massive because the world’s largest pension, mutual, and sovereign wealth funds typically mandate investment only in AAA-rated securities. A downgrade of US debt means those funds must immediately sell off their primary reserve asset. The effect of this cannot be overstated, and gold would be the first and best refuge for an onslaught of orphaned capital.

Despite gold once again hitting new highs, I can only recommend my readers continue to keep a healthy portion of their portfolio in precious metals. Given the sad realities of the US fiscal and monetary situation, it’s prudent to assume that nothing will be solved by August 2nd.

Peter Schiff President & Chief Global Strategist
Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, economy, real estate, the mortgage meltdown, credit crunch, subprime debacle, commodities, gold and the dollar, he is becoming increasingly more renowned. He has been quoted in many of the nation’s leading newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Dallas Morning News, The Miami Herald, The San Francisco Chronicle, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Arizona Republic, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Christian Science Monitor, and appears regularly on CNBC, CNN, Fox News, Fox Business Network, and Bloomberg T.V. His best-selling book, “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse” was published by Wiley & Sons in February of 2007. His second book, “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down” was published by Wiley & Sons in October of 2008.

“Innovation is the creation of the new or the re-arranging of the old in a new way.” –Mike Vance, Dean, Disney University

When selling a home (or anything else for that matter), the marketing effort must be coordinated on all fronts. It also must be superior to the competition. This is especially true in a buyers’ market where the homes sitting on the market seemingly outnumber the potential home buyers. In such an environment, you must lift your home out from this crowd and highlight it in the best way possible. You must out-think the competition.

So, the market is off by 50 per cent. So what. It’s still four times larger than it was in 1982. The key is to get your property placed into the 50 per cent which sells now.

All good marketing efforts begin life as a sound, basic plan and then evolves to fit the particular property and situation. Cut from whole cloth and then tailor-made, such a plan will incorporate innovative new ideas and “rearrange” old ones.

Here then, are a few of these ideas:

1. Select a Quality Realtor: Based on my travels around the world and as president of both Royal LePage and NRS National real estate companies, I believe British Columbia and Alberta are home to some of the most qualified, professional realtors in North America today. But there are also some who are little more than “order takers” who literally can’t properly write out a contract, much less have the hard-won knowledge needed to position your home in the most appropriate and effective way for your particular market. So how do you find such an experienced, market aggressive realtor?

Ask around. Check with friends or trusted associates and get some names. Experienced names. When selling in today’s market, you need to be in the hands of a practicing “doctor” and not someone eager to practice on you.

Focus in the three best referrals, ask each of these realtors to come out, have them put together a marketing evaluation and then give you his/her specific action plan as to what he/she will do to sell your home. Make sure it’s in writing. (If the realtor is “too busy” to physically come and view your home…well, you’ve just eliminated one name from your list.) Remember: realtors come in a couple of basic flavors. While there are always exceptions, in general a “low-key” yet thorough realtor is best when it comes to helping you buy a home; his or her pragmatic knowledge will help keep your feet firmly on the ground. When selling a home however, look for a high-energy, dynamic realtor whose enthusiasm might be “infectious” enough to enthuse a potential buyer.

The market evaluation should compare your home with at least three currently active competitive listings, three recent competitive sales and three competitive and now inactive listings which didn’t sell. Drive over and check out these benchmark properties yourself to ensure the realtor has put your home in the right “ballpark”. If you disagree, find out the reasoning as to why the realtor has so placed your home. The reasons could be good ones indeed. (Or vice versa.)

Once you’ve vetted all three choices, go with the realtor whose combination of experience, proven performance and action-plan for your home is the most impressive. But be careful not to confuse impressive with unattainable.

Ensure your home is listed on the Multiple Listing Service. The more exposure, the better.

List your home with the chosen realtor for 60 days. If the realtor suggests you list with him or her for a longer period, tell him or her you will renew if, in your opinion, all the realtor’s written promises have meanwhile been adhered to and met all the previously agreed upon elements of the action plan. If not, tough luck. Find another realtor.

Underline to the realtor that you wish to be kept informed of the sales progress at least once a week during the entire listing period. Every time the home is shown to prospective buyers, ensure the realtor informs you in advance and also gives you a feedback as to the viewer’s reaction to the home. On the other hand, don’t overdo it. Be courteous and be careful not to nag the realtor. When dealing with a professional, be professional.

If the realtor has failed to keep his or her promises during the listing period, cancel the listing.

…read 2 – 21 HERE

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