I’ve got to hand it to the majority of pundits out there. They just never learn or think for themselves. They keep dishing out the same nonsense, over and over again.
For instance, the notion that rising interest rates will kill off equity market gains, particularly in the United States … or choke off a real estate recovery … or kill the gold market for good — is a myth. Period.
It might be true if interest rates were at record highs and well above the rate of inflation. But they are not. Interest rates are at or coming off of historic record lows in many parts of the world, and there is no inflation to speak of. There is the opposite, deflation.
That’s important to understand. As rates rise from historic low levels — many investors will run for cover. But the only market that rising interest rates will truly hurt is the value of sovereign bonds.
Let’s consider real estate. Why would rising mortgage rates — at this point in the economic cycle and recovery — be bad for property prices?
They won’t be bad. For the simple reason that as mortgage rates rise, all the pent-up demand for property will come out of the woodwork and start buying — in anticipation of further increases in the cost of borrowed funds.
That’s just the property markets. Rising interest rates are also going to ultimately prove positive for equity markets. While equity markets in the U.S. and Europe remain vulnerable to a short-term pullback, over the long haul, rising rates will be a bullish factor.
It means the velocity of money turnover is improving, and it means increasing demand for credit — all of which are bullish fundamental forces for equities.
Ditto for commodities. The notion that gold will simply rollover and die and that a new bull-market leg higher is impossible with rising interest rates, is nonsense.
Just consider the last big bull market in gold, from 1973 to 1980, when interest rates were soaring, as was the price of gold and most commodities.
Sure, inflation was roaring higher then, too. But that doesn’t negate the fact that gold soared with higher interest rates. Moreover, there have been numerous other times throughout history when gold rose along with rising interest rates.
That said, right now, most commodities still have some work to do on the downside before they bottom. But bottom they will — and they will rise again — along with rising interest rates.
Indeed, as I pen this column, gold and silver remain on target for a potential major low soon to be made or confirmed. Ditto for mining shares and platinum and palladium.
Given that we may be so close to a major low in both time and price, it’s only natural to ask if one should start aggressively buying now.
My answer: No. Wait until I give you the final major buy signal. That’s what I am personally waiting for before I load up for my family.
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