The economy may finally have a clear runway for takeoff in 2014.

There are some clear signs of improvement. While still too high, the unemployment rate is now at a five-year low of 7 percent, and companies are hiring at an annual pace of 2.3 million. Consumers feel better about spending, buying big ticket items like cars, and mortgage debt rose in the third quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. Auto sales in November soared to a surprise annualized selling rate of 16.4 million, the highest level since February 2007.

To be sure, there have been a series of fits and starts in the five years since the financial crisis, and there is still a mood of pessimism that the economy just can’t click into gear and that growth will not achieve a velocity higher than a sluggish 2 percent.

“We’ve had some good excuses in the last few years with the European sovereign risk and fiscal drag. The European drag has faded, and the fiscal drag is set to fade,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. His forecast is that growth picks up in the coming year, reaching 3 percent by the second half and then staying at the higher pace for a while.

“I think if we don’t get lift this year, if we can’t get growth with a 2.83 10-year yield, and we’re not seeing the benefits of fiscal drag fading, we’re going to have to ask some very difficult questions about what’s going on beneath the surface,” Kasman said. “That’s the central story. Obviously interest rates are part of the picture; behavior is part of the picture, and the global economy is part of the picture.”

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