Crude oil is falling… copper is falling… stocks are falling. Because of the European debt crisis, people are fleeing assets that are sensitive to economic growth… and flocking to “safe havens” like bonds and the U.S. dollar (cash). As you can see in the chart, the dollar is currently winning the world’s “least ugly” paper currency contest. It’s gained around 9% from its August lows. This doesn’t sound like much to most people, but it’s actually a huge gain for a major currency.
Of course, as the dollar rises, gold falls. The yellow metal traded for $1,750 an ounce in February. It’s now trading for $1,530. That’s a decline of 12.5% in three months.
On the surface, gold is falling because people are dumping assets to raise cash. Gold is a liquid asset, just like stocks and crude oil. So it gets thrown overboard when people are desperate for liquidity. But the “big picture” reason gold is experiencing a decline is that it’s simply “due” for a substantial period of sideways (or lower) prices. Gold has risen in price every single year for the past 11 years. No other widely traded asset or index can match that record of consistent gains. Gold is up more than six-fold during this relentless, relatively calm bull market.
With this amazing, once-in-a-century bull market in mind, we remind you that markets are like runners. They can’t run flat-out for miles without a break. The long-term picture for gold hasn’t changed. Western governments still have massive, unfunded debts and obligations that cannot be paid with sound, honest money. The people of Asia (especially China and India) are getting a little richer every year. These people have a centuries-old affinity for precious metals, like gold and silver… and they are still buying. Again, gold is simply due for a break.
To put its recent decline into perspective, let’s look at the “long view.” Below is a 12-year chart of gold. As you can see, gold could fall all the way down to $1,300 an ounce and remain in a bull market. That’s where it was in late 2010. In the context of gold’s massive bull market, even the latest decline isn’t severe…
Another bit of perspective: Rich, sophisticated investors don’t view gold as a conventional investment. It’s not like owning an income-producing rental property. It’s not like owning shares in a dividend-paying, blue-chip company like Coca-Cola. Gold is real money. It’s a form of “crisis insurance.” Rich people buy gold and hope they never have to use it. They don’t buy it with the hope that they’ll make hundreds of percent on their holdings. You can read more about the “rich guy” way to view gold in this short interview.
Speaking of rich people and what they buy…
This morning, the news services are reporting on the latest moves by billionaire investor Warren Buffett. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has just filed reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission showing it has new stakes in automaker General Motors and media company Viacom. Buffett also increased his stake in global discount retailer Wal-Mart – one of Dan Ferris’ favorite World Dominating Dividend Growers. Buffett recently said he doesn’t think the Mexico bribery scandal will harm the company’s long-term earnings power. Dan agrees. He sees the recent selloff as a good buying opportunity.
Following the investments of legends like Buffett is a great way to find potential low-risk, high-reward ideas. The world’s best investors and traders have massive research budgets. They have the best contacts. They have the best computers and the most extensive databases. They’re able to achieve a tremendous “information edge” in the market. That’s why looking over their shoulders makes sense.
Over the past few days, we’ve told you a few details about our newest service, DailyWealth Trader. We have several goals with DailyWealth Trader. The main goal is to educate readers on the best ways to make low-risk, high-reward trades. The service also acts as a “digest” of ideas from the world’s best investors and traders.
For example, in the May 1 issue (which was made available only to Alliance memebers), we discussed one of the top ideas from legendary trader Jim Chanos. As one of the world’s best short sellers, Chanos makes money by betting on a company’s stock price falling. We highlighted his short position in Brazilian oil producer Petrobras. Chanos says the company is the picture of how government mismanagement wrecks companies. It’s also spending hundreds of billions of dollars to develop high-cost offshore oilfields. Chanos is bearish…
As you can see from the chart below, shorting Petrobras was a heck of an idea. The stock has collapsed from $30 per share to less than $20 per share in just a few months. As of yesterday’s close, that trade is up 17.5% in just two weeks.
Again, with a subscription to DailyWealth Trader, you’ll receive ideas from the world’s best investors and traders. You’ll also receive a priceless education on how to act on those ideas. If you’re new to trading… or interested in furthering your market education, you’ll get tremendous insights from DailyWealth Trader… at a very low price. You can sign up for our upcoming educational video and receive information on a trading technique we normally charge at least $1,000 to teach here.