Wars tend to drive markets. If the war goes well (Gulf Wars 1 and 2, Kosovo), the markets tend to rally. If war is unexpected or appears to be going badly, markets tend to fall (start of WW1, Pearl Harbour). The 20th century has been called “a century of wars”. That could apply to almost any century in history but the 20th century is estimated to have seen 160 million die in wars. That was the most ever. The global population was also at its highest and firepower at its most deadly, including the first (and so far only) use of an atomic bomb.

With the recent focus on the potential for a US military strike on Syria, there are questions as to how it could impact the markets. Until recently both gold and oil were rising, the US$ was rising and the broader markets were wobbly. As soon as the threat of imminent war abated, gold and oil fell, the US$ fell and the broader market rallied.

An examination of major past wars and how the markets responded might be interesting. I do not suggest that any new war would develop similarly, or that an attack on Syria could lead to a world war, although given that the US is on one side and Russia on the other, there is a risk of unexpected twists. In some respects it has become a US/Russia confrontation.

…. the full analysis & charts including conclusion HERE