Trump Juncker Progress on Trade Sends Stocks Surging

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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Todd Market Forecast for 3pm Pacific Wednesday July 25, 2018. 

Dow +172 on 690 net advances

NASDAQ COMP +91 on 381 net advances



STOCKS: Today the analysis is pretty easy. President Trump and EU Commission President, Jean -Claude Juncker made progress in trade talks. So much so that the overnight stock index futures are surging. 

Even before the announcement the market was making progress. We had been worried about market breadth, but it straightened out somewhat today. 

GOLD:Gold was up $ 7. Not ready to change our bearish posture. 

CHART: The QQQ, which is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100 is at an all time high. This index tends to lead the Dow and S&P 500 so I would expect them to follow suit over the next few months.

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BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now. 

System 9 Neutral. 

System 10 – Gold We are in cash. Stay there for now. 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: New home sales were 631,000, higher than the expected 608,000. Oil was down 6.1 million barrels. Last week they rose 5.8 million. On Thursday we get nd oil inventories.

INTERESTING STUFF Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. ——Napoleon Bonaparte

TORONTO EXCHANGE:Toronto gained 30. 

BONDS: Bonds made anew reaction low. 

THE REST: The dollar lost some ground. Crude oil was somewhat higher. 

Bonds –Bearish as of July 20.

U.S. dollar – Bullish as of June 27.

Euro — Bearish as of June 27. 

Gold —-Bearish as of June 15.

Silver—- Bearish as of June 15.

Crude oil —-Bearish as of July 5.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

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Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.