Todd Market Forecast: Worry About The Heavy News Week

Posted by Stephen Todd: The Todd Market Forecast

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DOW                                              –  37 on 1200 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                               – 14  on 850 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                         Bearish (change)  


    STOCKS: There was most likely some worry about the news this was week which is going to be heavy. We get 2nd quarter GDP, FOMC minutes and non farm payrolls so we had a light volume day with a downside bias in spite of strength in Europe.

    GOLD:  Gold inched up again, this time up $7.   

CHART: For months we were bullish because of strong internals. Well, now the internals have weakened. The S&P 500 made a marginal low below a previous low while the advance decline line made a more substantial declining bottoms pattern (arrow).  


TORONTO EXCHANGE:    Toronto rose 21.                     

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp was lower by 1.                                                   

BONDS: Bonds were lower on Monday.                                                             

THE REST: The dollar stabilized. Silver, copper and crude were all marginally lower.          


 Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal as of June 4, 2013.

   System 2 traders    Are in cash. Stay there on Tuesday.       

System 7 traders    Are in cash. Stay there on Tuesday.

Stock investors We are long Intel from 21.61 with a stop at 22.50.     


    Pending home sales dropped 0.4%, but not as bad as the expected drop of 1.4%. The Dallas Fed. Mfg. Survey came in at 4.4, less than the expected 6.4. On Tuesday we get the Case Shiller home price index and consumer confidence.


We’re on a buy for bonds as of  July 11.             

We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of July 10.                         

We’re on a buy for gold as of July 11.

We’re on a buy for silver as of July 11.       

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of July 26.           

We’re on a buy for copper as of July 1.                  

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock exchange TSX as of July 11.         

We are on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Comp. as of Jan. 29.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

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     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.


Todd Market Forcast | P.O. Box 4131 | Crestline, CA | CA | 92325