Todd Market Forecast: Most Indicators Looking For a Trading Bottom

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday April 12, 2017

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW – 59 on 1100 net declines

NASDAQ COMP – 31 on 1050 net declines



STOCKS: Most of our indicators are looking for a trading bottom, but it takes more than this. The market has to demonstrate that it can actually move higher and so far that hasn’t happened.

The main problem continues to be geopolitical. There is the potential for armed conflict in Korea and the U.S. and Russia aren’t getting along too well in the Middle East.

GOLD: Gold rose another $12. A sharp dollar drop and geopolitics remain a factor.

CHART The S&P 500 is finally oversold as measured by 5 day RSI. This is normally a positive. It would help if world tensions would lessen.

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO from 83.54. Stay with it.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.

System 9 We are in cash. Stay there.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Oil inventories shrank by 2.2 million barrels. Last week they expanded by 1.6 million. On Thursday we get jobless claims, the PPI-FD and consumer sentiment.

INTERESTING STUFF Adversity has the effect of eliciting talents, which in prosperous circumstances would have lain dormant. ——-Horace Roman poet.

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto lost 79.

BONDS: Bonds surged again. A flight to safety?

THE REST: The dollar crashed. President Trump said it was too high. Silver had a sharp rally. Crude oil fell back in spite of lower inventory numbers.

Bonds –Bullish as of April 3.

U.S. dollar -Bullish as of March 28.

Euro — Bearish as of March 28.

Gold —-Bullish as of April 11.

Silver—- Bullish as of April 11.

Crude oil —- Bullish as of March 30.

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22, 2016

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.   

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Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.