Todd Market Forecast: Get Ready For Volatility

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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STOCKS: For the second day in a row, the markets opened down sharply and then rallied for the remainder of the session.

Tomorrow we get the most market moving of all economic statistics, the non farm payrolls. The market seems to be in the mood to treat all releases as good news. If employment is down, that’s good because it will encourage the Fed to keep rates low. If employment is up, that’s good because it means a better economy.

Maybe not, but that’s the impression I get right now.

SHORT TERM: TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE: TERM TREND Bearish

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

GOLD: Gold was down another $2. Interest rates were higher as was the dollar.

CHART: The S&P broke above the mid April lows finally, but the Dow did not confirm. We are still in a congestion zone. We would like to see a clear break above this zone on good volume in order to go back to intermediate term bullish. 

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a sell.

System 7 We are in cash. I messed up and now I can’t buy into an 80 RSI. We’ll have to catch the next train.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.

News and fundamentals: The ADP employment report showed 173,000 new jobs, the expectation was for 175,000. Initial claims were 267,000, in line with expectations. On Friday we the non farm payrolls, trade deficit, factory orders and the ISM non mfg. index

Interesting Stuff: I have noticed that the novice can often see things the “expert” overlooks. —–Tom Peters.

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was up 73.

BONDS: Bonds were sharply higher. They are now in resistance.

THE REST: The dollar was higher. Silver and crude oil was down.

Bonds –Bearish as of May 18.

U.S. dollar – Bullish as of May 13.

Euro — Bearish as of May 13.   

Gold —-Bearish as of May 9.

Silver—- Bearish as of May 9.

Crude oil —- Bullish from May 24.

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.

www.toddmarketforecast.com

also:

Marc Faber On The Global Gold & Silver Markets