Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW – 123 on 250 net advances
NASDAQ COMP – 33 on 150 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bearish
STOCKS: The action on Monday was a bit disappointing, but it was most probably a function of being the last day of the month. Mid session, a rumor came out that there was a big sell program at the close. This probably discouraged buyers.
Tuesday is the first day of March and the first day of the month has a strong tendency to be higher.
Also, breadth has been strong which adds to the bullish case. Check out the chart comments below.
GOLD: Gold rallied $19. Weak economic data was the reason given this time. This means lower rates.
CHART: The S&P 500 has been down two days in a row, but the advance decline line was positive both days. This should be a positive on Tuesday. Moreover, the S&P was negative by 8 points for the month, but the advance decline line added almost 2,000 net advances. No guarantees, but internal strength is usually a positive. We think Tuesday will be higher, but we have a trading escape hatch if we’re wrong.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a sell as of February 9.
System 7 We are long the SSO from 56.94. Let’s take some defensive action. If there are more declining issues than advancing ones at 3:45 EST on Tuesday, sell at the close. We don’t think we’ll have to.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.
GOLD We are in cash. Stay there.
News and fundamentals: The Chicago PMI came in at 47.6, less than the expected 52.9. Pending home sales were down 2.5%, worse than the consensus gain of 0.5%. The Dallas Fed Mfg Survey was minus 31.8, less than the expected minus 30. On Tuesday we get the PMI Mfg Index and the ISM Mfg Index. Also construction spending.
Interesting Stuff Failure is the opportunity to begin again more intelligently. —–Unknown
TORONTO EXCHAN GE: Toronto rose 63.
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was up 4 .
BONDS: Bonds were slightly higher.
THE REST: The dollar was also slightly higher. Silver was up sharply. Crude oil rose over 3%.
Bonds –Bearish from Feb. 12.
U.S. dollar – Bullish as of Feb. 16.
Euro — Bearish as of Feb. 19.
Gold —-Bearish as of February 22.
Silver—- Bearish as of February 22.
Crude oil —- Bearish from January 5.
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish from January 29.
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
| Mon. | Tue. | Wed. | Thu. | Fri. | Mon. | Evaluation | |
| Monetary conditions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 day RSI S&P 500 | 76 | 57 | 62 | 71 | 67 | 54 | 0 |
| 5 day RSI NASDAQ | 73 | 56 | 63 | 68 | 70 | 59 | 0 |
|
McCl-
lAN OSC.
|
+226 | +148 | +168 | +210 | +214 | +199 |
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|
| Composite Gauge | 4 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. | 7.0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 0 |
| CBOE Put Call Ratio | .95 | 1.12 | 1.04 | .92 | .99 | 1.20 |
+
|
| VIX | 19.38 | 20.28 | 20.72 | 19.11 | 19.81 | 20.55 | 0 |
| VIX % change | -6 | +8 | -1 | -8 | +4 | +4 | 0 |
| VIX % change 5 day m.a. | -4.4 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -0.6 | +1.4 | 0 |
| Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. | +502 | +143 | +380 | +239 | +822 | +715 | – |
| Supply Demand 5 day m.a. | .79 | .61 | .62 | .78 | .62 | .43 | + |
| Trading Index (TRIN) | .37 | 1.96 | 1.06 | .84 | .96 | 1.41 |
+
|
|
S&P 500
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1946 | 1921 | 1930 | 1952 | 1948 | 1932 | Plurality +1 |
INDICATOR PARAMETERS
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
