DOW – 115 on 400 net declines
NASDAQ COMP – 52 on 100 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
STOCKS: The reason given for the decline on Monday was a somewhat hawkish message coming out of Fed’s meeting at Jackson Hole, WY.
My take is that the market got a little ahead of itself with the two day move of almost a thousand points. It had to digest the gains.
That said, there is enough uncertainty considering the seasonality factor to keep a very close eye on our positions.
September is the weakest month of the year since 1950, but four out of the last 6 Septembers were up. The first half of the month is stronger than the second half.
GOLD: Gold rose $1. Not much to analyze here.
CHART: The put call ratios are the highest they have been in years. This degree of pessimism is rarely seen at tops.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is back on a buy as of August 26. We are long the SPY from 199.42. System 7 We are long the SSO from 59.91. If there are more declining issues than advancing ones at 3:45 EST, sell at the close.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.
GOLD We are in cash. Stay there.
News and fundamentals: Chicago PMI was 54.4, less than the expected 54.9. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in at minus 15.8, much worse than the expected minus 2.5. On Tuesday we get the PMI manufacturing index, the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending.
Interesting Stuff: Nothing today. Having software problems-Which is the reason for this update being late.
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 6.
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was up 4.
BONDS: Bonds were lower.
THE REST: The dollar pulled back. Silver was higher. Crude oil surged still again. Now up 23% in three days.
Bonds — Bearish since August 26.
U.S. dollar — Bullish since August 26.
Euro — Bearish since August 26.
Gold —-Bearish since August 26.
Silver—- Bearish since August 26.
Crude oil —- Bullish since August 27.
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish since August 27.
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish since August 27.
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
| Fri. | Mon. | Tue. | Wed. | Thu. | Fri. | Mon. | Evaluation | |
| Monetary conditions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 day RSI S&P 500 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 51 | 51 | 46 | 0 |
| 5 day RSI NASDAQ | 10 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 53 | 55 | 48 | 0 |
|
McCl-
lAN OSC.
|
-234 | -336 | -290 | -145 | +8 | +56 | +39 |
0
|
| Composite Gauge | 17 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. | 13.26 | 15.21 | 16.0 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 0 |
| CBOE Put Call Ratio | 1.68 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.04 | 1.19 | 1.28 | 1.17 |
+
|
| VIX | 27.88 | 40.74 | 36.02 | 30.32 | 26.10 | 26.05 | 28.43 | + |
| VIX % change | +47 | +45 | -12 | -16 | -14 | 0 | +9 | + |
| VIX % change 5 day m.a. | +18.4 | +27.0 | +23.0 | +18.0 | +10.0 | +0.6 | -6.6 | – |
| Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. | -1978 | -2427 | -1762 | -429 | +1338 | +1660 | +924 | – |
| Supply Demand 5 day m.a. | .33 | .18 | .13 | .25 | .50 | .59 | .60 | 0 |
| Trading Index (TRIN) | 3.02 | 1.92 | 3.37 | .39 | .34 | .98 | 1.12 |
0
|
|
S&P 500
|
1971 | 1893 | 1867 | 1941 | 1988 | 1989 | 1972 | Plurality +1 |
INDICATOR PARAMETERS
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
