Still bulllish the US Stock Market averages long and short term, Stephen changes his bearish stance to bullish on Oil and the US Dollar. While he does have some concerns about the Stock Market, he’s of the view that it will power up through any problems – R. Zurrer for Money Talks

For 3:00 PM PST Tuesday March 20, 2018

DOW + 116 on 336 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 20 on 298 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: We had a bounce, but I wasn’t happy with it. Breadth was atrocious. It can be straightened out, but it needs to happen fairly quickly.

One of the drags may have been Morgan Stanley’s assertion that the melt up in stocks over the past year is over. That could have caused some selling and portfolio readjustments. By the way, we don’t agree. This is a pause not an ending.

Another drag is probably concern over what the Fed will say in it policy statement on Wednesday about interest rate hikes.

GOLD: Gold lost $8. This time a higher dollar.

CHART: The five day moving average of the Composite Gauge is above 12.0. Generally, that is a good sign going forward.

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO at 115.34. Stay with it on Wednesday.

System 9 We’re on a buy for system 9 from Friday March 19. This suggests that prices two weeks from now will be higher.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: There were no important economic releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday we get existing home sales and oil inventories.

INTERESTING STUFF: Forbid us something, and that thing we desire. ——–Geoffrey Chaucer

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto gained 41.

BONDS: Bonds took a hit.

THE REST: The dollar moved up nicely. Crude oil surged.

Bonds –Bearish as of March 16.

U.S. dollar – Change to bullish as of March 20.

Euro — Change to bearish as of March 20.

Gold —-Bullish as of March 6.

Silver—- Bullish as of March 6.

Crude oil —-Change to bullish as of March 20.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

www.toddmarketforecast.com

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.