Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Briese - Bullish Review

Share on Facebook

Tweet on Twitter

Screen Shot 2015-06-26 at 6.54.12 AM

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                                     – 76 on 850 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                   – 10 on 200 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                          Bearish


 STOCKS:  It’s hard to believe that three days ago, the S&P 500 was within a whisker of all time highs.

Near term bounces aside, it looks a bit grim. The advance decline line is close to a 5 month low and the Transports, which we featured yesterday broke the support we discussed.

GOLD:  Gold was down less than $1. Not much to report here.  

NEXT DAY: Friday should be higher.

CHART:  On Wednesday, the Trading Index (TRIN) closed above 1.50. When this happens, the market tends to bounce within a day or two. In the previous 8 occurrences, this rule has only failed once. That was in early June, the 5th arrow from the left.

Screen Shot 2015-06-26 at 6.54.12 AM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy from Feb. 20, 2015.

System 7   Buy the SSO at the opening. Sell at the close if there are more declining issues than advancing ones at 3:45 EST, otherwise hold over the weekend.                

System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

News and fundamentals:  Jobless claims were 271,000, less than the expected 273,000. Personal income rose 0.5%, more than the anticipated 0.4%.  On Friday we get consumer sentiment.

Interesting Stuff  We cannot do great deeds unless we’re willing to do the small things that make up the sum of greatness.—   Theodore Roosevelt

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto dropped 84.

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was down 1.  

BONDS:  Bonds pulled back slightly.                                           

THE REST:  The dollar pulled back slightly. Silver and crude oil were lower.           

We’re on a buy for bonds as of June 11.                      

We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the euro as of June 23.                       

We’re on a buy for gold as of June 17.                        

We’re on a sell for silver as of June 23.                        

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of June 4.                             

We’re on a sell for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of May 6.    

We’re on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Fund as of October 30.    

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France

Screen Shot 2015-06-26 at 6.58.58 AM INDICATOR PARAMETERS

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.