Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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“The S&P 500 made an all time high, joining the NASDAQ Composite and the advance decline at that august level.”

DOW                                             + 21 on 50 net advances

NASDAQ COMP                            + 36 on 200 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                    Bullish


 STOCKS:  The S&P 500 made an all time high, joining the NASDAQ Composite and the advance decline at that august level.

       The reason seems to be that earnings are somewhat better than originally thought and continued weak economic data should stay the Fed’s hand when it comes to raising rates.

GOLD: Gold lost another $16. This time the theory is that a rally in tech stocks encouraged investors to get out of a safe haven and get into stocks. I wonder how they know that. Volume on the NYSE was pathetic. The lowest of 2015.    

CHART: The NASDAQ 100 looks like it’s really taking off. It’s overbought, but so far that doesn’t matter. Price itself is the most important indicator.


BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy from Feb. 20, 2015. We are long the SPY from 206.43.            

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

News and fundamentals:  Durable goods orders rose 0.6%, more than the expected rise of 0.4%. On Monday we get the Dallas Fed Mfg Survey.

Interesting Stuff  Iron rusts from disuse. Water loses its purity from stagnation. Inaction saps the vigor of the mind. Leonardo Da Vinci.

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:Toronto gained 16.

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was down 2.

BONDS: Bonds rebounded.          

THE REST:   The dollar was lower. Silver continues to sag. Crude oil lost marginally.   

We’re on a sell for bonds as of April 22.                   

We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the euro as of March 30.                    

We’re on a sell for gold as of April 14.                      

We’re on a sell for silver as of March 30.                      

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of today April 21.                           

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of March 16.   

We’re on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Fund as of October 30.


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