Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Todd: The Todd Market Forecast

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Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday June 19, 2013  

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.            

DOW                                                      – 206  on 2000 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                 – 39 on 1000 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                       Bullish 


STOCKS: The Fed sees a brighter outlook for the economy and this was taken as a sign that the central bank would, at some point, begin backing away from its bond buying, or more accurately money printing.
What makes this laughable is the fact that the Federal Reserve’s predictive powers are historically pathetic. Nevertheless, a lot of investors think that Fed members can “see” what lesser men cannot. Totally ridiculous. 
GOLD:  Gold lost another $16. Part of the reason is that the Fed “sees” diminished inflation and of course, part of gold’s allure is as an inflation hedge. We’re now getting a second full retest of the April lows. 


CHART: We report the single day reading of the Composite Gauge on this hotline. When it is 15 or above, the next day or two tends to be higher. That’s one of the elements of our system 2 signal which did give us a buy today. 

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TORONTO EXCHANGE:    Toronto was down 99.                

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp was lower by 64.                                                

BONDS: Bonds were hit pretty good.                                               

THE REST: The dollar surged up. Silver, copper and crude oil were lower.         


 Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal as of June 4, 2013. 

System 2 traders    We had another signal. ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

System 7 traders   We are in cash. Stay there on Thursday.                      

Stock investors We are long Intel from 21.61 with a stop at 22.50.     


We’ve discussed the FOMC. On Thursday we get initial claims, PMI Mfg. Ind. Flash, existing home sales and the Philadelphia Fed Survey.   


Screen shot 2013-06-19 at 5.26.05 PMINDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities. 


   Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known stock market advisory services.           

   Once per year in January, Timer Digest publishes the rankings of all services monitored for multiple time frames.

   For the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, The Todd Market Forecast was rated # 1 for the preceding ten years. For the year 2006, we slipped to # 3 and in 2007, we were ranked # 5.

      Our bond timing was rated # 1 for the years 1997, 2007 and 2008. 

       Gold timing was rated # 1 for 1997 and # 2 for 2006. Late word! We were rated # 1 for 2011.

       We were # 1 in long term stock market timing for the years 1998 and 2004 and # 4 in 2010. 

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