Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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 For Thursday September 22, 2016 3:00 P.M. PST 

DOW + 99 on 1900 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 44 on 1250 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish

STOCKS: A solid follow through to yesterday’s jump. Many analysts are wondering why the vault higher was so great.

The fact is, the market was ready to rally. We discussed this in the days leading up to the Fed decision. If the market had been overbought with a lot of call option buying on the day of the decision, the reaction would likely have been much more subdued.

GOLD: Gold rose another $9. Same story. No rate increase.

CHART: The NASDAQ Composite looks to have broken out of a congestion zone that lasted a bit over a month.

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. We’ll need a pull back.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.

News and fundamentals: Jobless claims came in at 252,000, less than the expected 21,000. Existing home sales were 5.33 million, less than the anticipated 5.44. On Friday we get the PMI mfg index flash.

Interesting Stuff: I would have liked to question Janet Yellen yesterday. I would have asked, “Interest rates have been near zero for almost 9 years and the economy is still too weak to raise rates? Doesn’t that mean that your policies have been an abject failure?”

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto rose 86.

BONDS: Bonds were higher again.

THE REST: The dollar dropped again. Silver surged and crude oil jumped.

Bonds –Bullish as of Sept. 21.

U.S. dollar -Bullish as of August 30.

Euro — Bearish as of August 30.

Gold —-Bullish as of Sept. 21.

Silver—- Bullish as of Sept. 21.

Crude oil —- Bullish as of August 3.

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.   

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 Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  

http://www.toddmarketforecast.com

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