Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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For Friday August 26, 2016 3:00 PST

DOW – 33 on 300 net advances

NASDAQ COMP – 5 on 150 net advances



STOCKS: Today was all about the Fed. When Janet Yellen’s speech was made public, the Dow seemed somewhat satisfied and rallied to be up over 100 points.

Then Vice Chair Stanley Fischer decided he needed some publicity and came out with a more hawkish statement on interest rates and the fear of a quarter point rise in Fed Funds caused an immediate swoon.

GOLD: Gold was flat. In spite of a sharp rise in the dollar and higher rates. Actually, the yellow metal was much higher earlier in the day so it did drop somewhat.

CHART: This is the same chart as yesterday. The Dow is even more oversold (bottom arrow). It is also approaching the level that stopped the last decline (top arrow). It should move higher soon. If not, it is a sign of a more significant decline.  

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We sold the SSO at 71.17 for a loss of 1.29. Very disappointing.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.

News and fundamentals: The second revision of Q2 GDP came in at 1.1%. Even worse than the first estimate. The trade deficit was $59.3 million, better than the expected $63.2 billion. Consumer sentiment was 89.8, lower than last month’s 90.4. On Monday we get the Dallas Fed mfg survey and personal income.

Interesting Stuff:

Ordinary riches can be stolen; real riches cannot. In your soul are infinitely precious things that cannot be taken from you. ————Oscar Wilde

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was up 9.

BONDS: Bonds were down sharply.

THE REST: The dollar was sharply higher. Silver was mildly higher. Crude oil was flat.

Bonds –Bearish as of July 14.

U.S. dollar -Bearish as of August 16   

Euro — Bullish as of August 16.

Gold —-Bearish as of August 22.

Silver—- Bearish as of August 19.

Crude oil —- Bullish as of August 3.

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.


Larry Edelson on: Cycles Hitting Now!