Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.  

                 

DOW                                                + 52 on 950 net declines

 

NASDAQ COMP                               – 6 on 700 net declines

 

SHORT TERM TREND                        Bearish

 

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND           Bullish

 

STOCKS: Interesting. A decline of over 5% in China overnight and a drop of over 6% for crude oil and our oversold market managed a rebound. 

      To be sure, it wasn’t much of a rebound. There were many more declining issues than advancing ones, but we’ll take it. Breadth could change for the better. Stay tuned.

          

GOLD: Gold gave back another $4. A dollar rebound and a rally in stocks were probably the reason.

 

CHART: The Composite Gauge 5 day moving average is reported nightly on this hotline. When it moves over 14.0, there is a strong likelihood that we will see a multi day rebound.

 

 

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy as of August 26.

System 7  We are in cash. If there are more advancing issues than declining ones at 3:45 EST on Tuesday. Buy the SSO at the close.   

System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

 

News and fundamentals:. There were no important economic news items on Monday. On Tuesday we get the job openings (JOLTS).    

 

Interesting Stuff : Our markets have correlated poorly with Asian markets in the past. It’s about time to separate ourselves from what is going on in China which I would argue has little to do with us.

 

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto dropped 126.                    

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was minus 7.          

BONDS:  Bonds pulled back.                                                                                                                                

THE REST:  The dollar was higher. Silver was lower. Crude oil got mangled.                                                                                 

 

U.S. dollar – Bullish as of Dec. 17.                             

 

Euro — Bearish from January 5.

 

Gold —-Bullish as of January 6.                              

 

Silver—- Bearish from December 14.                           

 

Crude oil —- Bearish from January 5.                               

 

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bearish since December 8.    

 

S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bearish since December 8.      

 

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.