Many people have been writing about the computer forecast for gold on the monthly level and are astonished how it can write a report on time. TIME is an entirely different dimension and it must be respected as a entirely separate field. No individual is capable of forecasting the future with consistency. Perhaps there was a fight with a spouse or a conflict with the IRS. Such things emotionally distract an individual and as a result, they forget some thing to check or they are just too domestically focused. Others are “married” to a position. Some are married to an idea as with gold and will NEVER say sell – only buy. That is not analysis, it is dogma. To be consistent it takes the UNEMOTIONAL perspective. This is true in government where self-interest prevents politicians from being objective or analysts from just calling it as it is without being biased. The computer model is nearly functioning monitoring the entire world 24/7. This has been a major effort with people around the world. We will in the future have a special event in Switzerland where people will be able to talk to the computer and ask it questions. For now, this is what it wrote and was published for the December Conference last year that has so many astonished for it does not matter about the fundamental news. If it is a declining market, good news is never good enough. If it is a rising market, bad news is ignored. Trends are NOT easily reversed. They must play out their TIME. So all the nonsense about manipulating the world economy or that I am some gold hater because I dare to say it is like all markets, it goes up and down, just fall to the ground as dust in the wind. Markets will do what they do according to TIME. It is vital to understand the concept of turning points. It is never about who is right or wrong. That is for children – mommy he did this! Grow up. This is about surviving the future – not selling bullish ideas.
Looking at our empirical models, the ideal primary target for the next turning point appears to be March 2012 thereafter we see a two-month move in the opposite direction. Initially there appears to be a fairly large change in Trend developing in September of 2012 which can lead to a move into the January 2013. Therefore if March unfolds as a reaction high (Ed Note: See Chart Below revealing that there was March high in blue of 1790.40) we could see a retest of support in May with a reaction high into August for Labor Day and a decline into a final low in January 2013. It is clear that January 2013 should be a very important target. If that is a low then we should be able to see a significant rally into 2017 thereafte
Sometimes a computer is the clearest way to see the future. It is not biased and just calls the shots as it sees it.
Gold – Posted on
Gold is moving to the upside going into the end of this month. This is not particularly good long-term just yet. Nevertheless, the first resistance is 1683 with the Weekly Bullish Reversal. 1674.3 is the high of May (1678.60 Futures on the chart below) that is providing some closing resistance just technically. It is always the Monthly Bullish Reversals that are the key to any change in trend even short-term. They still stand at 1770 and 1796. But a new low under that of May would cause those numbers to drop sharply setting this up for a possible change in trend near-term.
The higher volatility we saw for 3 weeks after the week of 8/6 seems to be on target. Unfortunately, a rally for 3 weeks sets the stage for the opposite direction. A low would have been better. But we have to take what the market gives. Turning points are just that, An event.
We are working diligently to get the computer writing the reports ASAP.