There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market, but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.”
An excellent example of investor exuberance came recently in “Investors Go All In:”
“More importantly, over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.”
Technical Deviations
In the short term, fundamentals don’t matter. Such is because over a few days, weeks, or even months, what drives prices higher or lower is the psychology of investors. As such, we can look at technical deviations to determine how exuberant or not the market currently is.
For moving averages to exist, prices must trade both above and below that average. As such, moving averages act like gravity on prices. When prices deviate too far from the moving average, eventually, prices will revert to, or beyond, that average.
We can visualize the reversion in the chart below of the S&P 500 index versus its 200-dma. With the index currently more than 14% above its 200-dma, such should be a short-term warning to investors.
