The Todd Market Forcast

Posted by Stephen Todd: The Todd Market Forecast

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Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday December 11, 2013

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                    – 130  on 2050 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                       – 57 on 1350 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND               Bullish


STOCKS:  If it weren’t for the strong seasonal period, I would be very unhappy about the market action. Investors got all giddy about the mediocre employment report on Friday and pushed the Dow up 200.

         All of this has now been given back and breadth has given even more back. There seems to be increasing concern about a taper announcement next Wednesday from the Fed.

         There may be short term help on the way. Check out the chart.

    GOLD:  Gold gave back $9.


: The Composite Gauge registered a 15 on Wednesday (arrow). When this happens, there tends to be at least short term strength.


TORONTO EXCHANGE:    Toronto lost a hefty 191.                         

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp was down by 7.                                                               

BONDS:              Bonds lost ground.                                                                                                                   

THE REST:          The dollar moved to another low. Silver and crude oil were down. Copper managed a rally.                                                                         


Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.  

System 7    We are long the SSO from 97.92. If there are more declines than advances on Thursday at 3:45 Eastern, sell at the close.          

System 8   We are in cash. Stay there on Thursday.                               


There were no important news releases on Wednesday.  On Thursday we get jobless claims and retail sales.     

We’re on a sell for bonds as of  November 20.                    

We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of November 13.                              

We’re moving back to a buy for gold as of today December 10.      

We’re moving back to a buy for silver as of today December 10.             

We’re on a buy for crude oil as of  December 6.              

We’re on a buy for copper as of  November 21.                   

We’re on a sell for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of  December 5.           

We are on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Comp. as of November 20. 

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.    

Screen Shot 2013-12-12 at 8.09.40 AM


     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.


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Todd Market Forcast | P.O. Box 4131 | Crestline, CA | CA | 92325