Right now, I remain bearish most commodity markets. The reason being, they simply have not fulfilled a short-term cyclical test of support. So, more downside is possible in gold, silver, oil, and an assortment of other commodities.
In fact, I expect we’ll soon see gold break down and plunge well below the $1,500 level and head even lower … silver crater through $26 and drop to below $20 … and crude oil plunge to below $70.
We’ll see food prices also get creamed. Sugar, coffee, cocoa, corn, wheat, and soybeans. Just about every commodity under the sun is soon going to sink further.
That’s because we’re not in the next phase of inflation yet. Rather, we’re in temporary deflation.
Deflation brought about largely because the only money that is moving these days is coming out of sovereign bonds and going into equities … and because taxes all over the world are headed up, threatening to send the rest of the capital that’s out there into hiding, rather than into business formation or investment.
But there’s also no doubt in my mind that …
Another Inflationary Surge
Is Coming One Day
For one thing, nearly $4 trillion of printed money is sloshing around the global banking system. Money printed by the U.S. Federal Reserve … by the European Central Bank … by the Bank of Japan … and by the Bank of England.
That money is mainly still in commercial banks’ coffers. It was designed to bail them out. And that it did.
But because loan demand is still soft, the banks aren’t lending. They soon will, and that money — $4 trillion worth — is likely to run rampant through the global economy.
I know …
The Federal Reserve and the other central banks are largely following Ben Bernanke’s lead — and they all believe that when the time comes, they can reel that excess liquidity back in, and prevent it from running rampant through the global economy. Thereby snuffing out the next inflation surge.
But in my opinion, there’s no way the central bankers are going to be able to reel that money back in, for two chief reasons:
1. Once the banks start to see an increase in loan demand — instead of hoarding the money, they’re going to use it to make a slew of new loans — which is how banks make most of their profits. And …
2. Believe it or not, the central banks don’t understand interest rates. They think that they can raise rates at the appropriate time and that higher rates will quell loan demand, thereby pulling liquidity out of the system.
That might be true in a more normal economy, but in today’s economy, it’s totally backward. Why?
Because rates are so low to begin with, as rates rise, it’s likely to have the opposite impact: Investors and consumers will begin to realize that rates are going up — and they are then going to want to buy more and borrow more.
In other words, as the central banks raise rates somewhere down the road, they’re going to see precisely the opposite of what they intended …
A Surge in Credit and Loan Demand!
I’ve been waiting for the first signs that interest rates are headed back up again, because before they really take off, I want to buy a second home back in the USA and mortgage it to the hilt with cheap, borrowed money.
There are a lot more investors out there just like me. Millions of them.
And when that anticipation of a long span of rising interest rates comes, the $4 trillion the central banks printed will run like crazy through the global economy, pushing up overall price levels.
So the questions then become … “When will it start?”
“How high could inflation go?”
“What sectors will be impacted the most and what can I do to protect the value of my money?”
And “Where can I make the most profits?”
My answers …
First, while no one can accurately nail down when the next inflation surge will begin, all of my indicators tell me that we should start to see general, across-the-board price rises toward the end of this year.
Second, I do NOT believe the U.S. economy will ever see hyperinflation as we saw in Weimar Germany, in Zimbabwe, and in a host of other countries like Brazil and Argentina.
Reason: From a global perspective, core economies never experience hyperinflation. Only the peripheral economies do. Even Rome didn’t collapse from hyperinflation.
Third, the sector that will respond almost immediately will be none other than the same sector that responded the most in the earlier wave of rising inflation: Commodities, tangible assets, natural resources.
But don’t kid yourself on equity markets. They too will rise, even more rapidly than they currently are, as inflation lifts equities.
Fourth, some of the biggest profits you’ll ever see in your lifetime will come from equities in the natural resource sector. Companies that leverage the power of the underlying commodities they explore for, refine, produce, sell and distribute.
But again, we are not there yet. Real inflation is not here yet and will NOT begin for several more months. Instead, deflation is still the major near-term threat.
So, as always, stay tuned …
Best wishes,
Larry
